Fantasy Basketball: Charlotte Hornets Preview

After a 2013-14 season that saw the Charlotte Hornets (then the Bobcats) climb back into the playoffs, a disappointing campaign in 2014-15 looks to be setting up a crucial year for the franchise.

Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson — the cornerstones of the team — were hobbled by injury last season. Losing the two best players — including a one (Jefferson) who put up All-NBA caliber numbers a year prior — is a good recipe for disaster for most clubs. This year, the Hornets look to return to health, and hope they have added pieces to get them back to the promised land.

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Among the most important new players on the Hornets roster is Nicolas Batum, formerly of the Portland Trail Blazers. Batum is a fantasy dynamo when healthy, capable of racking up triple-double stats while adding defensive numbers and three-pointers.

Joining him will be guard Jeremy Lin, who is coming off disappointing season in a bad situation with the Los Angeles Lakers. Lin will be Walker’s primary backup, and could see enough time playing alongside him to be a fantasy factor once again this year.

Gone from last season is Lance Stephenson, who was dumped for Spencer Hawes in a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh are gone as well; they were the price the Hornets had to pay to acquire Batum, so they will be suiting up in Portland.

In the draft, the Hornets selected Frank Kaminsky with the ninth overall pick. He has some fantasy upside, though it may be capped by the sheer number of players vying for time at his position, as I will discuss later.

Steve Clifford remains the coach, and while he is a defense-first type of guy, this is probably the most offensively gifted squad he has had in his tenure in Charlotte. Whether that translates to a more fantasy-friendly squad remains to be seen, but the immense workload placed on Jefferson and Walker should be a littler easier to lift with the extra help.

Here are the breakout, bust, and deep sleeper candidates to watch for the Charlotte Hornets:

Breakout Bounce back Candidate To Watch: Al Jefferson

OK, I cheated here. But, here are two good reasons why:

1. The Charlotte Hornets don’t really look like a fantasy hotbed in 2015-16, so there is not necessarily a breakout guy for those in standard leagues.

2. Al Jefferson is under-ranked, and while he’s never going to be a sleeper, he’s the guy I want to highlight in this section.

In 2014, Jefferson had an ADP of 15th overall, per FantasyPros. He was coming off of a monster season in which he scored 21.8 points per game, grabbed 10.8 rebounds per game, and swatted 1.1 shots per game.

Now, Jefferson is ranked 51st overall by ESPN’s Tom Carpenter. He’s been scooped up around the 40th pick in Yahoo mock drafts — that puts him in the early fourth-round of 12-team leagues. I can only assume his ADP will rise, but for now, he’s a prime bounce back candidate to jump on.

Jefferson’s 2014-15 averages were a bit disappointing after such a monster campaign the year before: 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.3 blocks in 30.6 minutes per game. But Jefferson’s “down” year was still pretty dang good. He was one of five players to register at least 16 points, eight rebounds, and a block per game.

The others: Pau Gasol, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors, per Basketball Reference.

Davis and Cousins will be first-rounders in 2015-16. Pau is ranked as ESPN’s 25th-overall fantasy basketball prospect. Favors (63rd overall) and Jefferson  find themselves on the wrong side of 50th overall.

Clearly, Jefferson is not on the level of Davis or Cousins and Gasol had a fantastic season, but there’s reason to believe he can get back to his 2013-14 form that had him cemented as a top-20 prospect the next season. In the 2014 playoffs, Jefferson suffered plantar faciitis. In late December of the following season, Jefferson dealt with a groin injury that forced him to miss games.

A sprained knee later in the season limited him even further. As of June, he has been fully cleared by team doctors:

Entering the new season with a clean bill of health should do wonders for the big guy. Jefferson is primed to have a big year, and the Hornets will need to feed him if they want to make a return trip to the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Bust Candidate: Charlotte Hornets Power Forwards

As all-in as I am with Al Jefferson, I am the opposite with his potential paint partners. Part of it is that I have no clue what the plan is at the position (the depth chart screams platoon), and based on their offseason moves, I am not sure the Charlotte Hornets do either.

Cody Zeller should be the favorite to start at power forward — at least pre-camp — but his numbers will likely be better suited for those in deep leagues. Last season, Zeller averaged 7.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks in 24 minutes per game. It’s unwise to expect an extended workload, so a repeat of something close to that stat line should be the projection for Zeller.

Frank Kaminsky, the guy the team selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, will play a role in the frontcourt also. He has an interesting fantasy skill set given his status as a stretch-big, but his minutes will be cut into by Zeller, among others. Just like with Zeller, I have no problem with Kaminsky in deep leagues, but it’s tough to expect anything outstanding from either of these guys.

Even assuming one of Zeller/Kaminsky is named the outright starter with any confidence, the odds they play a full workload of minutes is unlikely. They will limit each other’s workload, but Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Tyler Hansbrough, and even Spencer Hawes could see some time at the position these guys play. For now, this picture is simply too blurry to be excited about investing.

Deep League Sleeper: Jeremy Lin

I am not sure I am legally allowed to type “Jeremy Lin” and “sleeper” in the same sentence, let alone the same context. But, here we are.

Lin was subject to a horrific fit with the Los Angeles Lakers last season, and now is somewhat under-the-radar as a combo guard with the Charlotte Hornets. He should serve as the primary backup to Kemba Walker, but Lin can play alongside him as well, giving him added real-life utility that could boost his fantasy bottom-line.

The Hornets lineup right now is a bit wonky with Nicolas Batum starting at shooting guard, and it’s possible that Lin could see his fair share of time at the two when the team slides Batum over to his natural slot at the three.

When he plays enough minutes, Lin has shown the ability to add points, assists, threes, and steals to table. In an offensively challenged environment like Charlotte, he could enjoy a very nice season as the go-to sixth man.

As of this article, Lin is still ranked in ESPN’s Top 210 as the 142nd-ranked player, so he is going to get drafted in the latter rounds of many deep-league formats. He is a guy that you may have to pull the trigger on during the draft, rather than take a wait-and-see approach.

Next: 25 Best Players to Play for the Charlotte Hornets

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