NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

1.  Cleveland Cavaliers:  60-22

Weakest month:  October/November — 17 games, .435 (28th)

Hardest month:  April — 7 games, .547 (8th)

Overall strength of schedule:  30th

When will be the year we all stop picking a team without LeBron James to reach the Finals from this conference?  2016?  2020?  2040, when he’s 56 years old?  At this rate, it feels as if James should just be penciled in for the Finals until he retires.

Cleveland didn’t coast through the regular season last year, like many people believe.  Instead, it was a combination of stages.

First, they hit multiple roadblocks.  David Blatt couldn’t even get the team to defend at a playoff level, let alone a team that would take on the Warriors seven months later.  Injuries also served as a barricade, with James missing eight straight games to nurse his pain and reset the mind.  When he returned in mid-January, it was almost like letting a wild ape out of a cage.  LeBron averaged 30 points, 6.3 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 2 steals per game in the final 10 games of the month.

Cleveland transitioned into their scariest stage, which featured them playing catch-up in the East standings.  After starting with a record of 20-20, LeBron put on his superhero cape and directed them to 53-29 — a stretch of 33-9, in which the Cavaliers played at a relatively slow speed and focused on getting the right shots.  All of a sudden, the floor opened up for Kevin Love to take control.  Love went through more ups and downs than anyone on the roster, but he got more comfortable as the playoffs neared.

They appeared unbelievable at times, including Kyrie Irving’s progression into a top five point guard.  Last year, he was hovering around the 7-9 range out of all floor generals, but his stimulating start to 2015 kept lifting him up the stairs.  He notched two 50-point performances after January, one of them without LeBron in the lineup.  In those two amazing showcases (vs. Portland and San Antonio), Irving combined to score 112 points on 37-of-68 shooting, including an absurd 18-of-26 from 3-point range.

Unfortunately, that’s the type of player Cleveland will miss at the start of the 2015-16 season.  Last week, Chris Haynes reported that Irving may miss an early portion of Cleveland’s schedule so that he can get his surgically-repaired kneecap ready to go.  Evidently, the amount of time Irving could be out is wide open — from the opening night matchup on Oct. 27 to the first few games of January.

The belief is that a timetable won’t be entirely based on Irving’s healing status.  If his kneecap is 100% healed and cleared by the doctors, the Cavaliers’ staff could use their judgement to hold back Irving’s return.  The reasoning for this goes back to the common issue with long periods of rehab:  Once a player is cleared to return after being out of action a while, they’re eager to get back to 100% game speed.  Sometimes, that’s when another part of an athlete’s body experiences a mishap.  It’s mainly due to a lot of sudden pressure and intensity being placed on muscles after they’ve been inactive for a while.

Cleveland may want to ease Irving in, trying to prevent another injury that could haunt them down the road.

The only issue with keeping one-third of the Big 3 out for almost half the season is a huge one.  If it does create problems for Cleveland in terms of having enough offense to string together 60+ wins, it could cost them homecourt advantage in the Finals.

We’re already aware that homecourt doesn’t matter for LeBron James in the East second round or conference finals, but it does matter against the West.  If Cleveland had been given the first two games at home vs. Golden State, some believe there could’ve been a different destiny.  LeBron was one shot away from being up 2-0 in the Finals on the road, so it should definitely be the Cavaliers’ priority to secure homecourt throughout the playoffs.

LeBron’s teams have had a history of putting themselves in tough situations heading into the playoffs (failing to get the No. 1 seed vs. Indiana, losing crucial home games in 2012 to fall down 3-2, etc.).  It’s about time he encourages them to step on the throttle during the season to grab homecourt, instead of digging themselves out of a hole.

J.R. Smith is back, for better or worse.  Tristan Thompson’s restricted free agency situation is getting out of hand, and now he reportedly wants over $94 million for a max contract as soon as possible.  It won’t matter for next year, though, since he’ll be back in their winning formula.

The pay-roll for Dan Gilbert is scorching, but I don’t think he’d have it any other way.  With LeBron and Love (both also on new contracts) heading into the season ready to unload, it shouldn’t matter about Irving’s prolonged absence.  They’ve expressed nothing but positive results from his early rehab sessions, anyway.  It all seems precautionary.

We’re about to be in full-fledged dynasty mode with these Cavs, so it’s time to get used to it.  Even if they can’t close the deal in June, we at least know that none of the 14 East foes can match them when it matters.

60 wins for Cleveland will be the fourth-highest winning percentage for a LeBron-led team.  He reached the 66-mark twice, one of those being in Cleveland during the 2008-09 season.  With the league even deeper now, they’ll be right in the mix with three West mammoths for the NBA’s best record.