NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

2.  Atlanta Hawks:  54-28

Weakest month:  January — 15 games, .422 (29th)

Hardest month:  April — 6 games, .568 (7th)

Overall strength of schedule:  29th

Once all the free agency madness vanished, there was one question floating through most of our minds.  It’s actually the most significant question around the Eastern Conference for 2015-16.

Can the Hawks repeat the Budenholzer slaughter fest?

From any concept of basketball, Atlanta was extraordinary in its second season under the new coaching regime.  From his 17 years with the Spurs, Budenholzer learned all the pros and cons of how to build a winning character out of the locker room.  It was also enough time for him to understand the No. 1 reason Gregg Popovich is so exalted as a coach — equally focusing on both ends of the floor, without being known as purely an “offensive genius” or “defensive god.”  To get the maximum results through April, May, and June, you have to cherish both chess matches at the same time.

The Hawks held back nothing, managing great stability throughout the regular season.  In fact, they entered supreme company with many statistical feats.  None may shine brighter than Atlanta shooting 38% from 3-point range as a team, and holding their opponents to 34.1% from deep.  It sounds simple enough that a handful of teams would be able to grab it every season.

They became just the 8th team in the last 10 years to join the list — one of those eight being the 2015 champions in Golden State.

Departures for Atlanta this offseason could end up being a huge blow for their desire to hit 60 wins again.  DeMarre Carroll (third on the team in minutes per game last year) went to Canada, but nobody in Atlanta is blaming him.  He earned an outrageous pay raise and the Hawks weren’t in great position to award him the same amount as Toronto did.  Carroll will go from making $2.5 million last year … to $14.5 million annually with the Raptors.  It made sense for him.

Pero Antic also hit the road (overseas), but his 16.5 minutes per game will be replaced and properly handled by Tiago Splitter.  Splitter is a fantastic addition to an already-gifted passing team, since he usually showed polished distributing skills through San Antonio’s sets.  For a big man, he’s matured and heads to Atlanta more than equipped for their philosophy.

You just can’t stress enough how much losing Carroll could set them back.  He was their supreme defender against the best wing players in the league, and reminded you a lot of what Kawhi Leonard brings to the table as a one-on-one hound.  More importantly, though, Carroll was almost robotic from the 3-point arc.

Carroll was unbelievable as a spot-up shooter last season, especially considering that’s the only way he got his 3-point looks.  Out of his 304 3-point attempts, 295 of them were given to him via teammates — That’s 97% of his shots coming off a potential assist, essentially showing that he’s not a shot creator.   But, he fit into his role perfectly and that’s why they admired him.  He nailed 120 of those 304 attempts, making him a deadly 39.5% shooter from outside.  Keep in mind, it’s considered flammable if you’re sniffing 40% in the NBA.

So, losing someone that could supply so much damage on both ends could be costly.

Nonetheless, the growth of Jeff Teague should continue as long as the three other starters aren’t missing from the lineup.  Kyle Korver had ankle surgery after his nasty spill in the playoffs, Al Horford has never looked better, and Paul Millsap just re-signed for three more years.

With the four of them on the floor together last season, the Hawks garnered a net +8.0% in 3-point efficiency compared to their opponents.  They were also a +8 in points per 100 possessions, and +4.3 in assists.  This indicates that while Carroll was a fantastic element for Atlanta, they can still survive as an East contender without him.

Oh, and all four of the starters Atlanta has left were 2015 All-Stars.

What’s worth keeping tabs on for next season is how well Budenholzer can mold Tim Hardaway Jr. and Justin Holiday, two newcomers that fell into Bud’s lap this summer.  If he turns Hardaway into the type of player everyone’s been itching to see since his rookie year, it’ll say something about this culture and coaching staff.

60 wins are probably out of the question for the sole reason of another team being the commander this year, but there’s no way the Hawks are being shot down like some people are writing them off.

Horford only makes longer strides with his progression each year.  There may only be two or three smarter big men on the court than this guy, and it’s crazy to think he was the “best player on the best team” in the East last year.

The Eastern Conference Finals felt like a woman getting cold feet before her big wedding day.  Atlanta couldn’t stack up against some machine wearing No. 23, but they’ll get another chance to right the wrong in 2016.  Let’s hope they don’t wet the bed again.

Next: 1st Seed