NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

3.  Chicago Bulls:  51-31

Weakest month:  October/November — 15 games, .472 (21st)

Hardest month:  January — 16 games, .509 (15th)

Overall strength of schedule:  28th

Maybe we should stop falling trap into believing a Chicago vs. LeBron series could eventually swing the other way.  In the three series that Chicago has met him since 2011, the Bulls are trailing 12-4 in total wins. None of the three series have gone to seven games, because they always run into the obstacle of a disturbed king.

With this projection of Chicago reaching the No. 3 seed again, they could only meet LeBron in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals.  But, with Fred Hoiberg stepping in as the replacement for defensive egghead Tom Thibodeau, it’s 100 percent up in the air about Chicago’s defense next season.  You would like to think that retaining Jimmy Butler and having Joakim Noah nurse his injuries would keep their defense sturdy, but it takes more than two players keep a defensive disicpline together.

It takes a whole team of adequate to superb defenders (at every position) to keep a system flowing when a coaching change happens.  Since Thibodeau won’t be there to stress the importance of it in everyday practice and locker room discussions, you have to wonder if Chicago will suffer.

Last year, it was becoming clear that Chicago was achieving the right balance — only a handful of teams are able to enter the top 11 in both offensive and defensive rating, and the Bulls barely met the benchmark. Their net rating of +3.2 points per 100 possessions was a little lower than anticipated (+9.1 during the 2011-12 season when Derrick Rose was still in one piece). Nonetheless, they weren’t struggling terribly in either department when their best starting five was on the floor.

Butler and Rose missed 48 combined games, and the Bulls still found a way to crack the 50-win mark in the Central Division.  But, there’s something a bit more revealing to how decimated Chicago was during the season.  The trio of Butler-Rose-Noah (their best three players in a perfect world) only played 763 minutes together during the regular season.  That may seem like a lot, but it’s not when viewing it on a per-game basis (only 9.3 minutes).  All three need to stay away from knee issues, tendinitis, back problems, elbow ligament tears, etc.  The trio of Butler-Rose-Gasol played the most minutes of any (1,100) and that’s exactly where their original core needs to be.  Noah is too skilled defensively, which is how Chicago became known as the East’s best defense a couple years ago.

Hoiberg’s primary responsibility and ambition with this roster is simple:  Bring them up to their offensive potential.  Thibodeau never could take the necessary steps, mostly because his offensive principles were stale.

The Bulls were able to score effectively off the pick-and-roll last season with Rose back, tying for 6th in the league in points per possession off the screen-roll. Nonetheless, Thibodeau didn’t rely on it nearly as much as other teams around the league, placing just 14th in total pick-and-roll possessions.  This is primarily based on the ball-handler (Rose, Hinrich, or Butler in most cases), and not their use of a roll-man.

In “roll man situations,” though, Chicago was putrid as a team.  Sure, they have a crazy-talented power forward in Pau Gasol to finish off the roll, but that doesn’t help Noah or Taj Gibson’s downfalls in the pick-and-roll.  The Bulls ran just 506 “roll man” plays last year, in which the screener is given an opportunity to make a play. In those 506 chances, they ranked 27th in points per possession, 28th in field goal percentage, and 27th in total scoring frequency.

You have to make better use of both the guards and forwards off the screen-roll, and that’s exactly what Hoiberg was brought in for.  The duty of re-mastering this offense is up to him, and he’ll undoubtedly use his Iowa State elements with his first professional gig.

Hoiberg is a maven when it comes to using “dribble-pitch” aspects in his offense. We should be excited to see this play out in Chicago, with Rose and Butler tormenting teams off great ball movement they didn’t really have before.  Under Thibodeau last year, they averaged 306.1 passes per game in the offense (12th overall), but you still found yourself scratching your head more times than not. It was too often that their sets led to nothing, except bad, contested shots or turnovers.

At Iowa State, Hoiberg probably had his players passing 300+ times in a game that’s eight minutes shorter!

The chief principle in this dribble-pitch offense is to create tons of movement on the perimeter. Out of all players Hoiberg will help, the most important will be Rose.  As Coach Nick from BBallBreakdown points out, Hoiberg has dozens of variations with these sets, but what he calls “Thru” should open up Rose’s attack:

Rose would be the college point guard in the video above, benefiting from the action.  In the first sub-category of this set called “Chase,” you can notice the point guard jogging to the weak side after dishing the ball to the right wing.  Once he’s headed to the left side, the small forward in the left corner decides to clear the area.  He cuts through the lane in order to get to the strong side.

Notice what this does for Rose’s role?  He’s able to either go full-isolation against one defender on the left side (since everyone cleared out), or he can make a quick backdoor cut toward the rim.  Considering how fast Rose is when he’s not having knee problems, this seems like a dangerous situation for the defense.

In the third variation shown in the video (called “Smash”), Rose could get back to his MVP style that everyone misses.  In “Smash,” Hoiberg usually has the point guard cut to the paint, then curl around a pin-down screen on the wing.  The guard who previously had the ball on the 3-point line will then give Rose a dribble hand-off while Rose picks up speed and momentum.

Since he’s typically faster than his defender, this gives Rose a great window to turn the corner, get a full head of steam, and penetrate to the hole.  By this time, most of the defense will be trying to rotate and play catch up, since they initially thought the action was coming from the left wing.  It’s a great reversal for Hoiberg to try out in Chicago.

The only two things making it hard to see the Bulls entering the 55-win range come down age, and playing time for Nikola Mirotic.  Two probable starters for Chicago (Pau Gasol and Mike Dunleavy Jr.) will be 35 when the season begins.  Gasol is coming off his best season since the Lakers championship days, but he’s still many steps too slow on defense.  Guys are easily getting around him off the dribble, somewhat bullying him the in paint, and taking advantage of his finesse style.

Gasol is no longer a big man that players fear while entering the paint.  If he was, then opponents wouldn’t feel comfortable attacking him on a nightly basis, taking 10.3 shots per game vs. Gasol near the rim.  Opponents shot 48% against Gasol in those plays — which isn’t the best, but isn’t the worst neither — but it’s quite obvious that guards aren’t afraid to challenge him or Noah on drives.

You should strive for the impact that Anthony Davis has on the game, in which he also holds opponents to 48.6% near the rim, but he’s only challenged roughly 7 times per game.  People are too nervous to try it.

We have to remain hopeful that Gasol won’t be injury-plagued during his 15th season, but perhaps Chicago found something helpful in the draft in case he does go down.  Bobby Portis will be an instant comfort for the Bulls’ offense, although it’s going to be pretty crowded in the frontcourt with five capable bigs (Gasol, Noah, Mirotic, Gibson, Portis).  It’s always good to have insurance, however.  You can also say hello to more floor spacing if Hoiberg encourages Portis to shoot from deep (he was 14-of-30 in his final college season from long-range).

If this is finally the year we’ve been holding our breath for in terms of keeping guys on the court instead of the surgeon’s table, the Bulls will surpass this projection.  It’s right in the middle of what optimists are hoping for, and what pessimists are already nervous about.

Next: 2nd Seed