NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

4.  Washington Wizards:  45-37

Weakest month:  February — 13 games, .445 (26th)

Hardest month:  December — 16 games, .550 (4th)

Overall strength of schedule:  24th

Truth be told, this group should’ve been battling Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals.  They bewildered and shamed Toronto in a first-round sweep, out-scoring Drake’s unprepared Raptors by 56 points (441-385) with an average winning margin of 14 points per game. As Washington marched on, they actually had the upper hand on the No. 1 seeded Atlanta Hawks.  Between John Wall’s disastrous broken hand and Bradley Beal’s grievous ankle issues, luck just didn’t break the right way in April.

Crucial additions for Washington include Gary Neal, Alan Anderson, and rookie Kelly Oubre Jr. for the wing, while also having veteran Jared Dudley for his mixture of perimeter and post duties.

When Paul Pierce bailed on Ernie Grunfeld in order to join his old coach, Doc Rivers, it’s true the Wizards lost their heart and soul in the playoffs. Pierce spurned the age factor during their playoff run, coming through in late-game situations (one that didn’t even count!) and tormented both the Raptors and Hawks during his time as a stretch-four.  Averaging 19.7 points per 36 minutes in the first round, Pierce debunked the notion that he couldn’t hold his own in the league anymore.

But, Pierce is turning 38 years old … meaning it’s probably a good thing for Washington to lose him this offseason. I’d rather take my chances with Dudley, who teammates admire for his altruism, ability to defend multiple positions at a high level in Milwaukee, and that he’s at a great age in his career (30).

The elephant in the room is obviously with the frontcourt, considering Nene and Drew Gooden are getting more over-the-hill with each passing offseason. At times, Nene impresses and makes you believe he has enough left in the tank. Most of last season, though, he showed heavy signs of (more) decline. Nene’s PER fell to the third-worst for his whole career (14.3) and he’s not displaying a ferocious attack to get to the foul line enough. You begin to worry if the end is becoming a reality, and that’s where 8-year big man Marcin Gortat comes into play.

Gortat only rises up the list of most productive centers each year, and he’s fresh off his most satisfying season as a two-way player. He topped off his seventh year by finishing third overall in field goal percentage, behind only DeAndre Jordan and Jonas Valanciunas.  However, it’s important to consider that Gortat’s efficiency is the most impressive here, because he took fewer shots next to the rim:

• DeAndre Jordan — 71% on field goals, 97.4% of his shots coming from five feet or closer
• Jonas Valanciunas — 57.2% on field goals, 66.7% of his shots coming from five feet or closer
• Marcin Gortat — 56.6% on field goals, 53.4% of his shots coming from five feet or closer

Randy Wittman may continue to bore the audience with his 1990’s style of coaching, but at least he has two guards and one big man that succeed in his system.  Wall and Beal rarely seem to have complaints and disagreements with Washington’s offensive plan, and it’s evident how much Gortat loves the mid-range aspects that Wittman encourages.

Otto Porter, their 3-year player from the ridiculed 2013 draft, is under a load of pressure this coming season. Transferring from a rookie to a sophomore, Porter scored fives times as many points last season and got 300 more shot attempts. Wittman put a lot of faith into Porter during his second season, basically making him a 20-minute per game asset.

If Porter keeps the linear pattern of success going, Washington may not miss Pierce as much as people expect.  Even if they struggle early on because of his growing pains, D.C. should look at it this way — I’d much rather have a young 21-year-old working his way toward being a future star of the team, rather than holding onto a fading veteran that’s one injury away from retirement.

Last season, the Wizards upset a lot of hearts. The same hearts that expected them to finally authenticate their place as the second best East squad.

Up until December 29th, Washington was 22-8, with the 6th-best winning percentage in the league. Out of East teams, however, they were third. For short portions of the season, they actually lead the East — with the Atlanta Hawks — as the most consistent team.  Then, once New Years arrived, the Wizards completely ravaged their chances of finishing atop.

From December 30th to the end of the season, Washington finished just 24-28, behind a lot of mediocre teams. It was just the 20th best winning percentage during that span, and they racked up 15.4 turnovers per game in those final 52 matchups.

There was no excuse for this team only improving their 2013-14 win total by two games, as it should’ve been at least 10.  Plus, it’s not like they had any traumatizing injuries that set them back.

Given that a slight re-direction is in store for them this season, with a couple new parts and aging rotation players, Washington still won’t reach 50 wins.  Their best chance was last season, when the East wasn’t as strong from seeds 1-8.  Now, since multiple teams are on the rise, the Wizards may not appear as dominant as people believe.

For the sake of quality basketball, though, we should hope Washington eclipses the 4-5 seed bracket.  Aiming for the 1-3 area would be ideal, so we can be treated to a John Wall vs. Kyrie Irving showdown for the East crown.  If this projection of 4th holds true, we’ll be deprived of that for another year.

Next: 3rd Seed