NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

5.  Miami Heat:  45-37

Weakest month:  October/November — 16 games, .406 (30th)

Hardest month:  February — 11 games, .574 (3rd)

Overall strength of schedule:  22nd

Out of all teams in the Eastern Conference, none are more riveting this season than Miami.  On paper, a fifth seed or higher shouldn’t even be a question.

But, this isn’t Dean Oliver’s book, “Basketball on Paper.”  This is the NBA, where a profusion of factors play into how successful a team is during the regular season.  Injuries, trade deadline moves, lineup changes, level of competition in your division, and coaching changes all affect how many wins you can string together from November to April.

For Miami to climb into the 44-win threshold, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can’t miss 58 combined games.  It’s actually pretty revealing (and mind-blowing) that a lineup of Goran Dragic, Wade, Luol Deng, Bosh, and Hassan Whiteside didn’t play one game together last season.

The closest Miami got was their most-used lineup of Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside.  That combination played 179 minutes during the season, and wasn’t very effective.  They were a -9.0 in net 3-point attempts compared to their opponents, and a -11.9% in 3-point efficiency.  In simpler terms, it means Miami’s opponents took more 3’s than this lineup, and was far more efficient with their attempts.  They were also negative in a few other departments as well, including a -3.8 in net assists, and -2.5 in net turnovers (all per 100 possessions).

So, does replacing Haslem with Bosh into this lineup matter as much as we think?  Bosh does help create more space than a Whiteside-Haslem combo, because you’re basically shrinking the court when you play with two traditional big-men (see: Indiana).  It was one of the main reasons Miami didn’t attempt many outside shots last year.

Dragic may not be a sensational passer, but pairing him with Bosh should open up the court nicely.  When Dragic played his first game for Miami last year (Feb. 21), Bosh was already being treated for the blood clot in his lung.  Bosh openly admitted that he didn’t enjoy being a post-player as much as he used to in Toronto, and all indications point towards this Heat team being better from long-range this year.

Additions for Erik Spoelstra include rookie Justise Winslow, high-flyer Gerald Green, and the out-dated Amar’e Stoudemire.

I’m not sure it’s wise to expect anything huge from Stoudemire, for a number of reasons.  He’s almost 33 years old, and each month that goes by is just more drainage of his endangered knees.  Back in 2013, doctors and specialists didn’t give Stoudemire’s knees a long expectancy to hold up.  Two years later, it almost feels like a ticking time-bomb just waiting to explode.  Plus, it’s safe to assume Whiteside absorbing more than 23.8 minutes per game this year.  He was only an experiment last season, but now you can expect Miami to go all-in on him.

It’s not like Stoudemire was a negative effect on his teams last year, though, as he still managed a 20.40 PER rating in 59 games (Knicks, Mavericks). Shooting 58.1% with Dallas, he has the ability to provide positive results.  It’s just not something Miami fans should use as the rationale for rising up the standings.

What’s going to make this Heat team a fifth seed this season is durability.  You can’t have 31 different starting lineups in one season and expect to crack into the playoff picture:

Miami put seven more starting lineups on the court than the next highest team (in the playoffs). The average amount of starting lineups for the 16 playoff teams was 16.7, and that’s almost half the amount Miami had.  It was one of the most horrific things for Spoelstra to fight through, and the level of frustration couldn’t have been higher.

Considering Miami was only one game out of the 8th seed last year with such an inconsistent flow, it shouldn’t shock people to see them improving by seven games.  That’s probably the low end, too.  The ceiling for a healthy Wade, Bosh, and Dragic trio is likely 50-52 wins, with the floor being at 43-45.  Youth and athleticism definitely matter in this league, but there’s no replacement for 12-year veterans.

Playoff time is when you’ll see the full benefits of having one of the five or six best starting 5’s in basketball.  It could create a must-watch 1 vs. 5 matchup in the second round, against …. you know who.  South Beach remembers his shadow, and they’d love to get a postseason crack at the man who left their “college atmosphere.”

Next: 4th Seed