NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

6.  Toronto Raptors:  44-38

Weakest month:  January — 14 games, .461 (24th)

Hardest month:  March — 16 games, .549 (5th)

Overall strength of schedule:  26th

It’s just a theory — If Masai Ujiri would just keep his mouth shut before the playoffs, maybe his team wouldn’t get mortified in the first round.  In 2013, the 6th-seeded Nets upset the Raptors without homecourt advantage.  One year later, the Wizards traveled up to “The North” and made it even worse.  Toronto is 3-8 in their last two playoff appearances, appearing to regress defensively with each game they play.

This offseason didn’t start off kind. Dwane Casey lost 17.9 total win shares with Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez, Amir Johnson, and Tyler Hansbrough all departing.  In some ways, they’ve also gained back quite a bit of talent, adding back 15.9 win shares by inking point guard Cory Joseph, wing defender DeMarre Carroll, and the aging power forward in Luis Scola.  It’s not been a bad job of re-tooling around the core of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, it’s just likely not as impressive as last year’s Raptors.

After all, when the Sixth Man of the Year (one who averaged over 11 shot attempts per game and scored at a very high clip per 36 minutes) departs, you have to go through an adjustment period. No team ever experienced a huge shift in their personnel without lining out the bumps and curves in the road.

What helps the Raptors?  Numerous factors.

For starters, they just got the most important extension finished before the season.  Although it’s likely that Jonas Valanciunas could have extra motivation to play great this year if he was still fighting for a contract extension, it was crucial for Ujiri to go ahead and kill the noise.  Valanciunas was awarded a four-year, $64 million extension that will kick in after this season.  He’s worth this value for the future, and it eliminates a slight distraction from his game and the pressure placed on him.

Also, you can’t discuss Toronto without appreciating their division.  Blessed with easily the most contaminated and intolerable division in basketball, the Raptors have enough leeway in the Atlantic.  Their margin of error is incredibly wide, considering the average record of the four opponents (Boston, New York, Brooklyn, Philadelphia) is projected to be 27-55.  With 16 games vs. Atlanta opponents spread out in the schedule, the Raptors shouldn’t have a problem making 44 or 45 wins their floor.  The ceiling is either 50 or a little bit above, and it will take full superstar play from the backcourt.

DeMarre Carroll chose to leave a great situation in Atlanta because they just couldn’t afford to pay him what he rightfully earned.  This is the year everyone needs to see from the lethal “3 and D” player in order to fully buy-in to his emerging stardom.  Playing Carroll at the power forward slot for a mix of small-ball lineups could be useful for Casey.  Either way, we’re about to have a lot of results to evaluate.

If the NBA’s mandate of “a division winner automatically earning a 3 or 4 seed” isn’t ripped apart by next April, these guys will have the No. 4 spot by default.  But, given that everyone is supporting the change (most notably Adam Silver), it’s almost a foregone conclusion that won’t be the case for the 2016 Playoffs.

Next: 5th Seed