NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections
By Shane Young
In the last six NBA seasons, five different teams have taken the Eastern Conference’s regular season crown. Rarely do you see a repeat of the most dominant team, since offseason changes tend to shake up the expectations.
Chicago repeated with the East’s best record in 2010-11 and 2011-12, but every other year it’s someone different clicking at the perfect time. The 82-game schedule is now the biggest serial killer in sports, picking off players and teams one by one with disheartening injuries. You have to be fortunate enough to have luck on your side, or it’s almost impossible to play through a season in one piece. That plays a huge role in limiting teams in the win column.
The average record for the last six No. 1 seeds in the East is 61-21, after adjusting the lockout-shortened season in 2011 to determine what the Bulls were on pace for. Indiana is actually the only team of the mix to not reach 60 wins, as they dismantled toward the end of 2013-14 with middle school drama after a bad trade.
Atlanta came out of left field last season with a 22-win amelioration to secure the conference’s top spot. To understand how drastic things can change in the NBA, consider this: Atlanta went from No. 8 in 2013-14 to No. 1 the very next year. Indiana went from No. 1 in 2013-14 to missing the playoffs in 2014-15.
When making educated projections for all 30 teams in the league, it’s important to maintain one key element. Added up, the sum of all 30 teams must equal 1,230 in the win column. You often see a lot of optimism around many young teams, which is why some projections include way more wins than reality brings.
After considering this, I allocated wins to all 15 Eastern Conference franchises, based on how I believe the standings will finish at the end of next season.
The East tallied 585 wins, after winning 577 games last season. It has potential to rise through the roof in a couple years, once the rebuilding teams gain momentum. For now, you have to remain understanding and, most importantly, logical.
How do we see the 2015-16 Eastern Conference playing out? Let’s unravel this puzzle.
The strength of schedule is also included for each team. How difficult each month is for a team is based off their opponents’ win/loss record from last season.
The ranking next to the month is simply where team X ranks in terms of that month’s difficulty. For example, the 76ers’ hardest month is October/November, and the ranking next to it is 11th. That means Philadelphia has the 11th hardest schedule in October/November. 10 teams have it worse than they do.
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