Fantasy Basketball: Miami Heat Preview

It’s tough to bounce back after losing LeBron James — just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers — but the Miami Heat look poised to do just that after a down 2014-15.

After being plagued by injury and depth issues, the Heat added two players in-season that should play significant roles for them in 2015-16. Hassan Whiteside, the team’s starting center, put together a historic season after being out of the league for two seasons (more on him in a bit) and a trade deadline move to acquire point guard Goran Dragic from the Phoenix Suns set the Heat up to have one of the most potent starting lineups in the NBA.

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This season, the Heat will hope Dragic and Whiteside mesh well with franchise player Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who is returning after discovering blood clots in his lungs last season, in order to make a strong championship push.

In the draft, the team added Duke forward Justise Winslow with a top-ten pick. He should see backup minutes behind Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade on the wing.

Joining Winslow on the bench will be free agent additions Gerald Green and Amare Stoudemire. Green is a candidate to see extended minutes when Wade sits to rest his knee, and Stoudemire could see time as the primary backup to Hassan Whiteside.

The subtractions from the Heat aren’t significant. Little-used Zoran Dragic was dealt to the Celtics, while former first-round selection Shabazz Napier was shipped to the Magic. The team also waived injury fill-in Henry Walker, clearing up the pecking order at the guard slots for the time being.

Erik Spoelstra returns as the head coach, but this season could see a shift in the team’s approach. With Dragic in the fold for an entire season, it’s possible the Heat become more of a run-and-gun squad — Dragic’s preferred style of play — perhaps propelling the Miami offense up the fantasy basketball hierarchy. Another thing to watch will be the team’s usage of Dwyane Wade, who was still elite when he was available last season, and how much rest the coaching staff provides him.

Here are the breakout, bust, and deep sleeper candidates for the Miami Heat:

Breakout Candidate To Watch: Gerald Green

Opportunity is the biggest factor in determining potential fantasy success. Gerald Green should see plenty of it in his first season with the Miami Heat.

Dwyane Wade, as you may know, misses quite a bit of action these days. In fact, in the last four years, his season-high games played is 69 in 2012-13. When he sits, Gerald Green is the favorite to step into the starting lineup alongside old running-mate Goran Dragic.

Green’s only true competition for backup minutes for both the shooting guard position and small forward slot is rookie Justise Winslow. Winslow, one of my favorite players in the draft, is talented, but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t even turn 20 years old until March.

The Heat consider themselves a championship contender, and it’s unclear how heavily they will want to rely on a rookie; Green could cut into his workload as a backup should Winslow falter throughout the season.

So what does Green bring to the table if he is able to carve out a serious role? Three-pointers and scoring outbursts; the type of streaky-ness that could make him a streaming dream or a fantastic daily fantasy play.

I wouldn’t go into the season with Green on my roster, but at the first sign of Wade’s creaky knees acting up, I’d give his backup a serious look.

Bust Candidate: Hassan Whiteside

Hassan Whiteside was a phenomenal find by the Miami Heat last season.

After failing to stick in the NBA as a second-round pick of the Sacramento Kings, Whiteside burst onto the scene for a depleted Heat squad, averaging 11.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game. His per-36 minute numbers were ridiculous: 17.8 points, 15.2 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, and nearly one steal per game.

The upside here is obvious. If Whiteside’s 2014-15 season was a representation of things to come, he is a contender for the best center in fantasy basketball.

There is, however, reason to throw some cold water on the red-hot Whiteside hype.

While the breakout center was awesome last season, his production seems unsustainable in some aspects.

If he would have qualified for the leaderboard, Whiteside’s 9-percent block rate would have ranked as the eighth highest in NBA history, per Basketball Reference. On one hand, it’s worth getting excited about a guy who just put together such an epic shot-blocking campaign. On the other, there is a weary feeling that comes with dealing in small sample sizes — and Whiteside’s NBA success is the definition of a small sample size.

Prior to catching on with the Miami Heat, Whiteside had played in 19 NBA games. He played in 48 last season, and started 32. He only played 23.8 minutes per game last season, and 27.7 minutes when he was labeled a starter.

Throw in the fact that he will be playing in a lineup with two guys — three when Dwyane Wade is healthy — that he is clearly behind on the pecking order (Goran Dragic, Chris Bosh) and it’s enough to wonder about how involved Whiteside will be offensively.

It’s unclear how much of a workload he can handle at this point, and even though his numbers from last year are good, Whiteside will need to do more to justify his draft position this fall.

ESPN has Whiteside ranked at 30th-overall. That is one spot behind Marc Gasol, four behind DeAndre Jordan, and seven ahead of Dwight Howard. With all the hype surrounding him, it wouldn’t surprise if his ADP started to rival Jordan’s. That’s a big investment for a guy who is still largely unproven.

The upside with Whiteside is outstanding; he could easily finish as a top-ten fantasy play. However, there is massive risk as well, and Whiteside has equal chance of ending up as one of the year’s biggest busts.

Deep League Sleeper: Josh McRoberts

McRoberts was a relatively hot fantasy prospect last year, when it was projected he would start alongside Chris Bosh for the Miami Heat. Then, he got hurt, and faded away from relevancy quicker than he rose to it.

Now, it would be a shock if McRoberts garnered serious consideration in standard leagues.

For those in deeper formats, McRoberts could be a nice guy to have at the end of your bench. Assuming he becomes the primary backup big, he offers some nice value as a power forward who can put together a collection of out-of-position stats.

As a starter in Charlotte in 2013-14, McRoberts dished out 4.3 assists per game. He also added 58 steals and 46 blocks over 72 games, and knocked in 1.3 three-pointers per game.

For a power forward, the ability to accumulate assists and knock down three-pointers is intriguing. The steals and blocks aren’t overwhelming, but could make for some interesting stat lines on nights he sees a bit more run.

Assuming McRoberts establishes himself as the backup to Chris Bosh, and perhaps can steal some minutes as Hassan Whiteside’s backup, there is some multi-categorical upside here for those in deep leagues looking for a jack-of-all-trades kind of player.

Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

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