Denver Nuggets: Expectations For Mudiay's Rookie Year

Now that the Denver Nuggets have effectively gotten rid of former point guard Ty Lawson, the team will now be in the hands of rookie Emmanuel Mudiay.

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A lot of draft analysts, myself included, were surprised when he fell all the way to the seventh overall pick, but sometimes that’s just how the draft works. Teams decided to go in different directions despite some saying that Mudiay could potentially end up as one of the best players in this draft class.

Regardless, the Nuggets got their hands on a future stud at the point guard position. Here’s what to expect from his first season in the NBA.

Offense

Let’s get the biggest negative out of the way first: Mudiay doesn’t have an excellent jump shot. In fact, he hasn’t had much of one at all up to this point in his career.

In his first professional stint playing in the Chinese Basketball Association, Mudiay only shot 34.2 percent from three-point range and an abysmal 57.4 percent from the free-throw line.

Those numbers are hardly what any head coach in the league wants to see from a guard who’s been billed as a capable scorer. However, luckily for Mudiay shooting the basketball doesn’t define his offensive game.

Mudiay plays a lot like John Wall when he came into the league. A big, hyper-athletic point guard who sees the floor well and knows how to get to where he wants to in the lane. Mudiay’s ability to drive and either finish or pass out for an open shot shouldn’t be taken lightly by any stretch of the imagination.

When he’s in attack mode, Mudiay is nearly impossible to stop at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds. He’s a bruiser at the position, and when you combine that size with his explosive first step and speed with the ball in his hands he can be a one-man show at times on offense.

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And in transition? Forget about it. If you can even catch up to Mudiay, he has an array of up-and-under moves and he knows how to use the rim to his advantage to avoid blocked shots from behind. When it comes to finishing at the rim, Mudiay is the best in the class.

In terms of passing the ball, Mudiay has great court vision and a willingness to be a team player, two key attributes of a top floor general in the NBA.

Whether it’s in the halfcourt or in transition, Mudiay can find his teammates and knows how to operate in drive-and-kick and pick-and-roll oriented offenses thanks to his patience and timing on his passes.

Mudiay doesn’t force plays or rush for no reason. He has the handle necessary to keep the ball dancing while he bides his time to make the perfect pass. A lot of young guards will tend to force the issue and make a pass that they think is correct but in reality they either didn’t wait long enough to make it or tried to be too flashy.

A lot of his assists aren’t flashy at all. There are a number of times in which Mudiay just makes an easy swing pass to the corner or the top of the key for the assist. It’s not always about making the bounce pass that weave through defenders for the fancy play. Playing point guard is about leading your team and executing the offense, and Mudiay does that as well as any other young guard.

If he ever gets his jump shot to fall on a more consistent basis like Wall has, then we may be seeing him as the next great point guard in the Western Conference in a few years. While Mudiay will struggle to shoot and will turn the ball over as every young player does, he has the physical tools and mind for the game to help him succeed.

As far as his rookie season goes, don’t expect an offensive juggernaut. What you can expect is someone who’s going to flash signs of brilliance every night and make the right plays versus the spectacular ones. Mudiay plays in control, something that more young guards need to do.

Defense

Defensively, Mudiay is no joke. Similar to Wall, he has the size and athletic ability to be a swarming defender on opposing point guards. Couple those attributes with his ball-swiping instincts and you have one talented man-to-man defender.

Where he really has to improve is on his awareness of the rest of the court on defense. Mudiay showed in the Summer League that he’s going to struggle at times switching onto other players and playing help defense, but a lot of young players struggle with those things because they haven’t faced NBA players running more complex offenses than in college or overseas.

Mudiay has the foundation to be a quality defensive player so the more time he gets on the court to learn how to defend against certain match-ups the better he will become. Just don’t expect an All-Defensive First Team performance from the rookie. He’ll play the passing lanes and get out on the break from some electric steals, but he may miss a rotation every now and then, which is fine for how young and inexperienced he is.

Conclusion

Mudiay has a few things he needs to work on, but what he can already do will be good enough to earn him major minutes in his first year in the league.

The Nuggets have always been a franchise to embrace a very up-and-down style of play because of the climate in Denver. The altitude makes it more difficult to breathe, which is something the team takes advantage of when they’re at home. Mudiay is the perfect point guard to have in an up-tempo offense because he loves to get out and run.

Setting up his teammates and driving the lane is who he is right now, but like Wall he has the potential to become much more. The struggles will be there, but so will the excellence. I like Mudiay a lot in that Nuggets’ offense, and I think he has a real shot to steal the Rookie of the Year Award away from someone.

Predicted 2015-16 Stat Line: 16.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 6.5 AST, 47 FG%, 31 3P%, 1.2 STL

Next: Grading The Nuggets' Offseason

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