Do You Believe In Kemba Walker?

On the surface, the present moment appears to be a pretty important one for the Charlotte Hornets. They got their man in the most recent NBA Draft, turning down a king’s ransom from the Boston Celtics in order to draft Frank Kaminsky with the ninth pick. On top of that, they recently inked elite defensive forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to a new four-year, $52 million deal. That’s great value in a league that is about to see it’s salary cap go to new heights over the next number of years.

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While this is all good news, it’s also no secret that this team has enjoyed it’s best period since Michael Jordan bought the team with old-school center Al Jefferson as the main man. Injuries derailed his season last year, and in fact that was a large part of the reason the Hornets took a step back in failing to make the playoffs. This was a blow, as in 2013 when they made the postseason they were a feel-good story of sorts.

So with all of this in mind, where exactly does that leave point guard Kemba Walker in all of this? Of course, he’s integral to this team going forward, and the four-year, $48 million deal he signed last year is more than fair from the team’s perspective to secure his services. But in an era where there are so many elite floor generals in this league, not to mention a ton of more prolific three-point shooting guards as well, is he the guy who can be there for this team if they manage to put it all together?

The team and their fans will be hoping so, but is he destined to live out his career as a starting caliber level guard who never becomes more than that? Could his career be about to echo that of a Jameer Nelson type? Somebody who can be a high-level player, an All-Star one year even, but who ultimately will spend most of his time as a steady, yet unspectacular player in this league?

There’s nothing wrong with any of that; it’s just there was considerable hype coming into the league. The national championship with UConn, not to mention being the guy who some thought could redeem the reputation of New York-bred guards in the league, Walker had a lot placed on his shoulders. To this point, I would say he’s failed to live up to that hype, and I’m not sure that’s changing anytime soon.

Consider this, Walker averaged 17.3 points last season, a shade less than the year before when he managed 17.7, a career high to date. That kind of output is nearing an All-Star level in some ways (Some say to be an All-Star you need to average at least 17 points and seven assists/rebounds) but he did this by taking just under 16 shots a night. Sure he’s a fine scoring guard, but he’s not exactly doing so in the most productive of ways.

His three point shooting was a woeful 30%, his lowest ranking as a professional. Even worse, of the 152 players who qualified in this category, Walker came in 142nd. That’s not good enough for a player who this team expects not only to lead them offensively but be their best and most consistent player going forward. That job is still on Jefferson’s shoulders, but even the most staunch of Hornets fans would have to admit he looks to be breaking down with all of that expectancy on his body.

Another red flag is with the assists Walker is providing as well. Last season saw him drop 5.1 a game, the lowest mark since his rookie year. Even worse, he didn’t even average the most assists per contest on his own team. That distinction went to backup floor general Mo Williams, who averaged 6.2 while playing over five minutes less every night. It’s also fair to say that at this point in his career, Williams is more of a gun for hire. A long-range threat who steadies the second unit. It’s concerning that he outperformed Walker with supposedly inferior players in this category.

Now, all of this is not to say Walker is a bad player, or even that’s he’s done improving. Remember, he had to try and co-exist with the enigmatic Lance Stephenson last season, and he did only start 58 games (He played in 62, by far the lowest mark of his career since the 66 he participated in during his rookie year, although that was a lockout-shortened season and in actuality he appeared in every game of that shortened season).

But in order for this team to be taken seriously as a playoff threat in future, is Walker really the point guard who can guide them to big things? I would argue that, of all eight Eastern Conference teams to compete in the playoffs last season, Walker is not as good as any of the starting point guards on those teams (You could probably talk me into taking him over Deron Williams who was with the Brooklyn Nets at the time, while Marcus Smart/Isaiah Thomas of the Boston Celtics both have drawbacks as well).

Before finishing up, we’ll turn our attention to some of the more advanced numbers to see if they back Walker up more than the more basic ones do. His Player Efficiency Rating of 17.6 is higher than the league average (15) but is still lower than the number he put up two seasons ago (18.8). He had the seventeenth most field goal misses in the league (603) while most of the players above him in that particular category had either higher usage rates, played for worse teams or were All-Stars who shoulder essentially all of the offensive burden.

He also had the fifteenth highest turnover rate (8.3) in the league per 100 plays, and his value over a replacement player was a pedestrian 2.3 (For a little bit of context, All-Star Paul Millsap‘s, an accomplished player existing in a great Atlanta Hawks system, was 3.7). But look, he’s certainly an above average defender, and led his team in steals last season (1.7). He can and will make plays on that end, and coupled with the lockdown abilities of Kidd-Gilchrist, they make an intriguing pair.

Add to that his ability to still score at a high rate, and there’s much to like about not only Walker, but how he fits with this team. But there’s no doubting that at 25 years of age and entering his fifth season, this is a big one for Walker. Can he take the next step and approach All-Star level play, or is he destined to be a dependable starter, and that’s it? Remember, his current contract makes him moveable, and that may one day be the case if this team decides to go in another direction or is able to snag a better point guard. Kemba Walker is on the clock.

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