Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans may have been a No. 7 seed in last year’s NCAA tournament, but the 2015 Final Four was a “blue-blood” quartet of teams that were expected to wind up in Indianapolis.
Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin were all No. 1 seeds (Kentucky was the top overall seed), while Sparty came from the East Region, and went through the likes of Virginia and Louisville on their way to their seventh Final Four under Izzo.
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Sure, the 2014-15 college hoop season was also blue-blooded, but heading into the 2015-16 campaign, the field appears to be as open as the 2012-13 season was. Nobody could (or really wanted to try) to hold on to the No. 1 ranking in the polls. Plus, two No. 4 seeds and a No. 9 seed (Hello, Wichita State!) joined top overall seed Louisville in Atlanta for the Final Four.
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With all of that being said, who could be this year’s version of the 2013 Wolverines, or even the 2015 Spartans? Here’s a look at a quartet of dark horse teams who could join Final Four contenders like North Carolina and Kansas down in Houston.
Cal Golden Bears
If you read my thoughts on the Pac-12 Conference title race on Monday (that’s OK if you didn’t, here’s your chance to), you read how I feel about Cuonzo Martin and Cal.
Spoiler alert: I think the Bears could be the best team in the Pac-12 by the beginning of conference tournament time.
Martin did the unthinkable and not only kept five-star big man Ivan Rabb in his home state, but he recruited Jaylen Brown to the Golden State to round out what could be a fantastic rotation for Cal in 2015-16.
Like I mentioned on Monday, Cal returns three of their top four scorers from last season, and will build off a solid 18-win season in Martin’s debut campaign. This team has Final Four potential on paper, but it has to translate on the hardwood.
Now granted, Arizona is the big, bad bully on the West Coast, and Sean Miller will look to finally break through and make his first Final Four as a head coach. But, the Bears went from a middle-of-the-pack team in the Pac-12, to popping up on more and more people’s radar heading towards the start of the season.
Martin is a winner on the sidelines and Cal is quite an intriguing team if they click on all cylinders.
Ohio State Buckeyes
D’Angelo Russell was one of the most exciting college players in recent memory.
Russell leaving after his freshman season didn’t shock anyone after his NBA stock continue to skyrocket throughout last season. Along with Russell, the Buckeyes lost Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson after their round of 32 loss to Arizona in March.
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Despite losing three key players in last season’s rotation, Thad Matta quietly recruited a top-10 overall class for this season. Matta’s “big three” of Jaquan Lyle, Daniel Giddens and Austin Grandstaff could help fill the voids left by Russell, Scott and Thompson.
The Big Ten’s top tier is loaded with teams that could possibly find themselves in Houston next spring — Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Indiana — but Ohio State seems like a forgotten man in the picture.
The Bucks haven’t been to the Final Four since 2012 with Jared Sullinger leading the way, but if you’re looking for an off-the-wall contender, keep your eye on Ohio State if the new freshmen can contribute.
Vanderbilt Commodores
No folks, the Southeastern Conference isn’t just Kentucky and Florida, and then everybody else anymore. The most criticized power conference in recent years has received a jolt.
Former UCLA head coach Ben Howland takes over at Mississippi State, LSU is back in the national spotlight after recruiting one of the best classes in school history and Texas A&M had the sixth-best recruiting class, according to ESPN.
But, the team in this spot for me isn’t any of those previously mentioned schools. It’s Vanderbilt. Yeah, Kevin Stallings, I like your team (even though you haven’t really come close to reaching the Final Four in your head coaching career).
ESPN college basketball writer Eamonn Brennan ranked Vanderbilt at No. 18 on his “No-Longer-Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2015-16”, and this to say about the Commodores:
"The Commodores weren’t remotely on our radar in April or May, mostly because they weren’t on our radar in February, or March, after a 1-7 SEC start (and an 9-9 overall conference record) made the rest of their season easy to disregard. The wider shot is far more flattering: From Feb. 3 on — when we were fixated on bubble teams and top-eight heavyweights — Kevin Stallings’ team finished 10-4. The schedule got easier, sure, but the ‘Dores got better, too, as three freshmen starters (Riley LaChance, Wade Baldwin IV, Matthew Fisher-Davis), 38 percent-or-higher 3-point shooters to a man, found their grooves. Center Damian Jones wowed scouts at the Nike Skills Academy in June, but he was an interior workhorse/rim protector (and NBA prospect) already. Luke Kornet is 7-foot-1 and shot 40 percent from 3! Who knew?!"
Along with Brennan’s rave review, Vandy will get some good exposure to start the season when they head for Hawaii to join this year’s loaded Maui Invitational field. Along with the early season tests in Maui, the ‘Dores will play the likes of Baylor, Purdue, LSU at home and Kentucky twice.
You want to talk dark horses for the Final Four? This is probably the darkest one, as Vanderbilt’s closest chance at making the Final Four came in the 1963-64 season. The furthest that Kevin Stallings has taken Vandy in the Big Dance was to the Sweet 16 … back in the 2006-07 season.
Virginia Cavaliers
Take a guess as to who led the KenPom ratings in adjusted defense during the 2014-15 season? (No, it wasn’t the skyscrapers in Kentucky.)
For much of the offseason, it’s been about Virginia taking a step back without Justin Anderson; the Cavaliers’ best player despite his injury-filled season last year. Even with Anderson’s departure, UVA returns … well, their entire roster outside of Anderson (who went the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft to the Dallas Mavericks).
But, with Tony Bennett still at the helm and virtually their entire core back this season, Virginia will be just as good as they were last season. A deep run into March isn’t out of the question (unless they run into those dang Spartans again).
The two-time defending ACC regular season title holders struggle at times to score on the offensive end, but defensively, there aren’t many teams as good as the Cavaliers.
Sure, they may not seem like a reach of a pick to make a tournament run like Vanderbilt, but Virginia gets lost in the Final Four shuffle when teams like Duke and North Carolina (both also in the ACC) get the main headlines around the country.
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