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Houston Rockets: Can The Rockets Sign Kevin Durant?

By Greg Chin

Feb 15, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; 2014 Western Conference All-Stars forward Kevin Durant (Thunder) (35) and guard James Harden (Rockets) (13) react during the practice session at Ernest N. Morial Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 15, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; 2014 Western Conference All-Stars forward Kevin Durant (Thunder) (35) and guard James Harden (Rockets) (13) react during the practice session at Ernest N. Morial Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2016 offseason looks to be an exciting one. When it was announced that the new NBA television deal had broken the $1 billion mark, various front offices were already predicting the effect it would have on the salary cap. The result was a significant jump, one that is projected to propel the cap upwards of $89 million for the 2016-17 season.

In comparison, the salary cap for the upcoming 2015-16 season will be a paltry $70 million.

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What is the significance of all this, you ask? Well, one of the biggest upcoming free agents during the 2016 offseason is none other than Kevin Durant (and well, LeBron James, but that’s a different story altogether). Teams have been keeping their 2016 cap space open in hopes that they can woo the 2013-14 MVP, and 2016 looks to be Durant’s very own “The Decision.”

Virtually every team has been linked with Durant, especially the contenders. The Houston Rockets are no exception – general manager Daryl Morey is one of the savviest general managers out there when it comes to matters of cap space. Despite having two max players on his payroll, the Rockets might have enough room to be a serious player in Durant’s free agency.

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Durant, who is eligible for a maximum contract worth 30 percent of the cap, could stand to earn up to $26.7 million in the first year of his new contract. The Rockets’ guaranteed contracts for next season add up to $76.36 million, which includes Dwight Howard’s $23.3 million player option, but does not reflect Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas’ qualifying offers.

With that figure in mind, the Rockets will have $12.64 million in cap space, provided that the cap is $89 million.  While the figure is quite short of Durant’s starting max, the Rockets could very easily dump contracts to create enough cap room where it then becomes fiscally plausible to sign Durant.

The first step would be to renounce Terrence Jones’ qualifying offer. For those unaware, the qualifying offer can be extended to players previously on their rookie-scale contracts to make them restricted free agents. The incumbent team then has the right to match any offer sheet that the free agent signs, but can also choose not to do so.

Jones’ position on the roster could be in danger, especially after Motiejunas’ play last season. If the Rockets decide that Motiejunas is their future starting power forward, they could choose to move on from Jones.

Next, they would have to find someone willing to take on Trevor Ariza’s contract. If Durant verbally agrees to signing with the Rockets, Ariza will no longer be needed on the team. The other benefit for contenders with the cap rising is that other teams who intend on tanking with have lots of cap space to take on unwanted contracts.

Teams are required to spend 90 percent of the salary cap, which provides incentives for teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers to acquire contracts for assets.

The final step would be to waive Ty Lawson. Upon joining the Rockets, Lawson agreed to make the final year of his contract unguaranteed. The Rockets could use this to clear up to $13.2 million from their books. If they like what they see in Lawson, they could then re-sign him later for a cheaper price, albeit on a longer contract.

However, if it were a decision between Durant and Lawson, it’s a no-brainer.

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    • If the Rockets are able to do all three (renounce Jones, trade Ariza, waive Lawson), they will have $30.64 million in cap space (assuming they offer Motiejunas the qualifying offer) — more than what they can offer Durant as a free agent.

    Taking this into consideration, they could choose to extend a qualifying offer to Jones or choose not to trade Ariza — the latter would mean that Durant isn’t able to sign a full-max.

    What surprises me here is that the Rockets aren’t listed as a top tier destination for Durant. One of his best friends, James Harden is already with them, and could very well swing the decision-making process in their favor. The Rockets would be instant contenders with a trio of Durant, Howard, and Harden – arguably an even stronger trio than what Durant has now in Oklahoma.

    They also have the means to clear cap space and sign Durant outright.

    A lot of the talk has been about him returning to the Thunder or to the Washington Wizards. But the Durant to Houston dream has the potential of becoming a reality.

    Next: Houston Rockets: Grading The Offseason

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