Miami Heat: Is Next Season's Schedule A Potential Trap?

Even the most plugged-in “experts” can miss the mark when it comes to projecting how the NBA will pan out next season. And, during this offseason downtime when there’s nothing much in the way of actual news taking place, it’s easy to get caught looking ahead and wondering how things might turn out.

So it is with the recently-released schedule, one that looks favorable for the Miami Heat at first but could lead to a disappointing end to the season.

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The Heat will start off the year with tough first week of tests. Their first game (against Charlotte) would seem to be easy but the Hornets actually split last season’s series (2-2) and a retooled team — complete with a bolstered frontcourt of Frank Kaminsky and Al Jefferson — could challenge Miami. Things get tougher with games at Cleveland (Oct. 30), against Houston (Nov. 1) and Atlanta (Nov. 3).

Still, the Heat will play 14 of their first 19 games in the friendly confines of the AmericanAirlines Arena and many of those against teams that missed the playoffs and aren’t considered contenders. This includes the Timberwolves, Lakers, Kings, 76ers and Knicks, with Minnesota, New York and Detroit among the more difficult road challenges.

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Miami, expected at full strength to start the season, could jump out to a refreshingly hot start.

But things get progressively tougher through mid- to late-December and become downright brutal in January, with 14 of 16 contests on the road and a four-game stretch that includes the Warriors (Jan. 11), Clippers (Jan. 13), Nuggets (Jan. 15) and Thunder (Jan. 17). While Denver isn’t a legitimate threat, the Heat have traditionally fared poorly in the Mile High City and this trip could easily go 0-4 and doom whatever progress the team made early on.

Critics will point out that every team has roughly the same schedule – 41 games at home and 41 elsewhere – but the Heat are in a unique position.

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In past seasons, most notably during the “Big 3” era, there was a sense that the regular season was merely a required distraction before the playoffs; the postseason was a guaranteed destination for such a talented team. The grind of an 82-game season was just a distraction from the ultimate goal of a title. Conference seeding didn’t matter because that version of the Heat could win anywhere.

The same can’t be said for a team that may not be at full strength later in the season.

The team’s biggest question is the health of Dwyane Wade and how often he’ll play at his usual All-Star level. Wade has had an encouraging offseason as he looks to have dropped some weight and appears to be in prime condition once more. After four consecutive trips to the NBA Finals, an extended vacation from basketball this summer will likely help maintain his overall health.

However, it’s fool’s gold to expect Wade to play a full schedule or anywhere near that; he’s going to miss games throughout the year. And, as the Sun Sentinel’s Ira Winderman points out, the schedule will definitely play a factor as the team manages Wade’s playing time:

"“The Heat, who will play 17 back-to-back sets for the third consecutive season and again have only one four-in-five. While opponents catch the Heat on the second nights of consecutive games the aforementioned 17 times, the Heat will catch opponents on the second nights of consecutive games just 13 times.“That minus-four total ties for sixth worst in the league…Beyond that, the Heat complete 15 of their 17 back-to-backs on the road (traveling and sleeping in a hotel the night before completing such a set), which ties for the most such situations in the NBA.”"

During the 2013-14 season, the Heat infamously implemented a “maintenance program” for Wade that saw him sitting during one game in many back-to-back sets. This was allegedly a point of contention for Wade during his most recent contract negotiations; while the team’s front office pointed to his propensity for missing games during recent seasons, Wade countered that those were often mandated by the team itself.

But Miami sees itself as a legitimate playoff contender and a team that could potentially knock Cleveland off the Eastern Conference throne. Would Wade be willing to sit out during regular-season games in order to preserve himself for a long postseason run?

That presents its own set of questions, namely, who would start in Wade’s place? The likely answer is Gerald Green, the free agent acquisition that last played in Phoenix. Unfortunately, Green’s rarely been a starter during his eight-year NBA career. Heat rookie Justise Winslow, expected by many to be the team’s small forward of the future, is an option at guard, providing some speed and defensive tenacity at the position.

Add to that any unforeseen drawbacks in the return of Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts (or Luol Deng, with his own complicated history with injury), and you can see why the Heat are far from guaranteed an entry in the postseason.

Ultimately, a team’s health (or lack thereof) could derail any team’s pursuit of a title. But the Heat have to find a way to overcome past indifference to the regular season, along with a possible lack of depth that could have them barely clinging to a playoff spot.

Next: Miami Heat: Grading The Offseason

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Miami Heat: Is Next Season’s Schedule A Potential Trap?

By David Ramil | Aug 17, 2015

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