With NCAA basketball serving as a one-and-done venture for many of the NBA’s top prospects, the value of returning players is constantly diminishing. Yet, for Utah’s rising sophomore center Jakob Poeltl, there may be no place to go but up.
Coming off of an exciting 26-9 season and a Sweet 16 exit at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils, the Utes will be looking to take the next step this season and become a true championship contender. With star guard Delon Wright departing for the NBA, Poeltl now becomes the team’s highest profile player, if he wasn’t already, and will be key in Utah’s next run.
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While Pac-12 fans will be keeping an eye on Utah as a conference contender, NBA Draft fans will be watching closely to see how Poeltl fares as a sophomore. With a big year, the Austria native can solidify himself as a top prospect and arguably the best returning player in the country.
The NCAA season is still months away, but there’s no doubt that Poeltl and other top returning prospects are working hard to elevate their games this offseason. The question becomes: which one will elevate enough to become a top shelf prospect?
In the midst of the quiet part of the offseason, here’s an early look at Poeltl’s stock before his sophomore campaign.
Jakob Poeltl: The Good
If Poeltl were to set foot in the NBA today, he’d already be a formidable defensive big man. At 7’0”, 235 pounds, he has an outstanding frame for a rim protector and should be able to impose his strength on opposing bigs in the low post.
As a freshman, Poeltl showed off his rim protecting skills while averaging 1.9 blocks per game, which was good enough to rank No. 2 in the Pac-12. He also did a fantastic job of changing shots at the rim and making things difficult for opposing penetrators as he led the Utes to a top-5 ranking in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, according to ShotAnalytics.
Poeltl’s not just a fantastic rim protector, but he’s also an ideal low post defender. He fared very well when playing against NBA-caliber big men, especially when holding Arizona’s Kaleb Tarczewski and Duke’s Jahlil Okafor to just seven and six points respectively.
If those numbers weren’t enough, Poeltl’s advanced defensive stats are eye-popping as well. The freshman posted excellent numbers all around with a massive 7.2 defensive box plus/minus, 4.2 defensive win shares (No. 9 in Pac 12) and an excellent 88 defensive rating (No. 5 in Pac 12), according to Sports-Reference.com.
While there’s no question that Poeltl is an elite defender at the college level, he’s also a very strong rebounder, especially on the offensive end.
Averaging 6.8 rebounds in 23 minutes per game, Poeltl flew to the top of the charts in rebounding percentage, as he ranks No. 7 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (16 percent) while leading the Pac-12 in that same category. While he’s a stronger rebounder on the offensive end, he’s still elite on the defensive glass as well, grabbing 20 percent of available rebounds and ranking No. 2 in the Pac-12 in total rebound percentage.
Wiz of Awes
Poeltl’s defensive and rebounding abilities are enough to make him a high level prospect, but he’s no slouch on the offensive end either. He averaged around nine points per game for the Utes, but the efficiency in the way he scored his noteworthy.
For starters, the freshman was one of the top finishers in the country by converting 71 percent of his attempts at the rim, which ranked No. 15 in the nation, according to ShotAnalytics. Perhaps even more impressive, Poeltl led all major conference players in total field goal percentage at 68 percent.
Poeltl’s offensive game is somewhat limited, but a rim protector that can finish at an elite level is invaluable for a team at any level – just ask DeAndre Jordan and the Los Angeles Clippers.
Efficiency on all sides of the ball is where Poeltl will make his living at the next level. If he can put in another big year on the defensive end and on the glass while improving his versatility on the offensive end, he may very well be in the conversation as the best big in the entire draft class.
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Jakob Poeltl: The Bad
With his high level play on both sides of the floor, searching for flaws in Poeltl’s game isn’t the easiest task. However, he does have some things to work on as he heads into his second season as a Ute.
Most glaringly, Poeltl’s offensive game outside of the paint is quite limited.
According to ShotAnalytics, Poeltl only took six shots outside of 10 feet all season and made just two of those shots. Without drastic improvement, he doesn’t project to provide any type of floor spacing for his team, which could limit his minutes if it becomes a major problem.
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On a similar note, Poeltl failed to impress at the charity stripe, making just 44 percent of his free throw attempts. With the “hack a ” strategy becoming more and more prominent in the NBA, Poeltl will need to improve his free throw shooting to avoid being taken out late in games, unless the NBA changes the rule.
Another issue with Poeltl’s game is his apparent inability to create his own offense. With two premier guards in Delon Wright and Brandon Taylor setting him for easy looks, Poeltl didn’t have to do much on his own to score the basketball aside from his put-backs.
On a related note, Poeltl’s upside is severely limited by those current offensive restrictions.
In other words, he’ll likely never be a star without the ability to catch the ball in the post and dominate the paint. Over time, he could learn to create his own baskets, but he shouldn’t be penciled in as a go-to scorer just yet.
Jakob Poeltl: The Overall Outlook
In a recent appearance at the Nike Academy, Poeltl failed to impress on the offensive end, but still showed his same dominance as rebounder and a defender, according to DraftExpress’ Mike Schmidtz. In his breakdown of Poeltl’s academy performance, Schmidtz commended his toughness and versatility as a defender:
"“The Austrian big man pushes opposing bigs on the block and very rarely allows a deep seal in the paint. Poeltl can be a bit foul prone, but he’s doing a better job staying down on fakes and using his size to alter shots inside. Poeltl also stood out as a pick and roll defender, keeping the ball contained and recovering to his man quickly while also switching occasional ball screens and staying with the ball valiantly.”"
If Poeltl can do this type of dirty work on the defensive end and contribute on the glass as he did in his freshman season, his draft stock will be in excellent shape. Throw in a little more polish on the offensive end, and he should be a lock in the top-7 for next year’s weaker NBA Draft.
My Nike Academy Top 5 NBA prospect team: Kris Dunn, DeAndre Bembry, Justin Jackson, Ben Simmons, Jakob Poeltl
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) June 30, 2015
Utah will be counting on the sophomore to lead the team, and if he can deliver, the Utes will have a serious chance to make a run in both the Pac 12 and the NCAA tournament.
Keep an eye on Jakob Poeltl, the NCAA’s best returning big man, heading into the 2015-2016 NCAA basketball season.
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