Boston Celtics: How Far Away Are the Celtics From Contention?

When the Boston Celtics began their rebuilding process in 2013, there was no denying what was happening. In the blink of an eye, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were traded to the Brooklyn Nets, while the organization parted ways with head coach Doc Rivers. The team made even more trades to get younger, and began stockpiling draft picks for years to come.

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Last season, the Celtics made a return to the playoffs, after a disastrous 25-win season the year they began their rebuild. While many fans have begun to allow themselves to think of future glory with this team, are the Celtics really that close to building a contender? Or is their one season of relative success just a false indication of things to come?

When it comes to building a contender, a team almost certainly needs three components: one or two superstars, a good supporting cast of role players and glue guys, and a tactically astute coach. Looking at the list of previous winners, most (if not all) teams have all three components on their road to success.

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The Celtics, as they stand now, only have 1.5 of those three components. They have the makings of a good supporting cast and head coach Brad Stevens is quickly earning a reputation as one of the best young coaches in the NBA. With more time, the 1.5 could increase to two, but the Celtics are still lacking a genuine superstar or “the guy” that will lead them to a championship.

Let’s be honest here: Marcus Smart hasn’t looked like he can be “the guy” for the Celtics. Sure, his defensive hustle and intensity are traits that fans, front offices and coaches love, but nearly everything about his offensive game needs severe improvement.

He could end up being one of the best backcourt defenders in the league, but most of his success on the defensive end comes as a result of his hustle, rather than experience and timing. With time, that may change, but don’t expect him to be the next coming of Gary Payton over the next two seasons.

Since tearing down the old core, the Celtics have drafted Smart, James Young, Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter, Jordan Mickey, and Marcus Thornton (of which the latter four were drafted in the 2015 NBA Draft). None of those projects to be a future superstar of the NBA, or can be reasonably expected to lead a team deep into the playoffs within a year or two.

This isn’t to say that the Celtics are doomed – they’ve just gone about rebuilding their team differently. While other organizations rebuild around a player and fill out the rest of the roster through the draft or by free agency, the Celtics have done the latter first and now just need a “superstar.”

Players like Smart, Hunter, Rozier, Kelly Olynyk, Jae Crowder, Jared Sullinger, and Isaiah Thomas are all names you’d expect to be on a championship roster as role players. Where other franchises toil in the lottery for years, hoping to chance upon a once in a generation talent to build around, the Celtics have started to build around a franchise cornerstone they hope to bring in soon.

The only problem with this approach, however, is that there is considerable risk. The Celtics will only find success in one of three ways: they either persuade a superstar free agent to sign with them, complete a blockbuster trade for a superstar player or draft a player that’s ready to lead a team into the playoffs.

The third option seems the least likely, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Dwyane Wade and LeBron James led their teams to the NBA Finals in their third and fourth years, respectively. Wade and James are generational talents, and since then, draftees haven’t had quite the same impact.

However, the counter-argument to this would be that the recent champion Golden State Warriors proved that you can overcome the lack of a second superstar with an exceptional supporting cast and the tactical genius of a coach.

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Boston can seem like a tough sell for free agents – a notion that Celtics general manager Danny Ainge reiterated. His claim was that players needed to experience (or “test drive,” as he put it) what it felt like to play for the Celtics, which would ultimately convince them to stay.

However, the initial problem is convincing the player to take the “test drive” in the first place. Why would a player (if given other choices) choose a one-year contract with Boston to see if he fits there instead of a multi-year contract with another team? Players are known for preferring long-term contracts that provide security; a one-year test drive with Boston isn’t going to cut it.

So, therein lies the problem. Boston, with the nice complementary pieces they have, could be very close to building a contender. But without that franchise cornerstone, the team will be stuck in a mediocre loop – good enough to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, but crashing out of the first or second round.

Boston is right on the tipping point of being a serious contender in the East. Armed with a supporting cast full of potential and a head coach that is rising up the coaching ranks, all they need now is a superstar to lead them to the Promised Land.

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