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DeMar DeRozan: Time To Take The Next Step

By Joshua Howe

Apr 10, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) shoots the ball against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. The Raptors won 101-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) shoots the ball against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. The Raptors won 101-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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DeMar DeRozan has been an All-Star before for the Toronto Raptors. That was two seasons ago now. Any chance he’d had of going this past year was thwarted when he went down with an injury that kept him to playing a Dwyane Wade-esque 60 games.

Still, that’s okay. Kyle Lowry went to represent Toronto, and that’s the way it should have been. In fact, one could argue that it should’ve been that way the year DeRozan was selected as well. It’s not that he didn’t deserve to go, but other than scoring, Lowry did far more for the team as a whole.

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That’s not to say, however, that we should give up hope on DeRozan ever making it back to All-Star status. He definitely can do it; he has the talent. Now it’s just about funneling that talent in the proper ways. This leads to the greatest flaw in his game: shot selection.

DeMar has never been great at choosing his spots. His development of a jump shot has been both a blessing and a curse. He can now make outside shots when he must, so that his defender respects him, but he now also has a proclivity to fall in love with his jumper even when it’s not falling.

Last season, DeRozan shot 64.4 percent within 0-3 feet from the basket. That’s always where he’s been at his best, attacking the hoop and either scoring or getting fouled so that he can go to the line where he’s a career 81.8 percent free throw shooter. His athleticism is his greatest advantage.

The problem here is that only 19.3 percent of DeRozan’s total shot attempts come from within 0-3 feet. His shooting attempts are spread out pretty evenly across the floor, despite the fact that he’s so much better at driving.

He takes the majority of his shots, 33.8 percent, from 16-plus feet, where he shoots 35.2 percent. Yikes. Not only is that a weak percentage, but it’s the worst shot in today’s game: the long two. The league is going away from this shot for a reason; it’s a high risk, low reward shot. With some help via analytics, teams have all figured out for a while now (except you, Byron Scott!) that the three-pointer is a better option.

But DeRozan isn’t a good threat from distance either. He’s a career 27.0 percent shooter from deep, and shot 28.4 percent last season. He doesn’t take a lot of attempts from out there (just 8.9 percent last season), but it happens often enough that Raptors fans feel the need to scream every time they see him float out to the arc.

DeRozan is 25 years old and has lots of time left to improve. But his shooting has never made any serious leaps from season to season, and the fact that he got injured last year seemed to take a tangible toll on his athleticism. Hopefully he’ll recover it all, but watching him hold back from dunking on some possessions after the injury has been nerve-rattling.

Still, if any advice is to be offered, it’s the same that it’s been his entire NBA career: drive the lane, over and over, and get your points from scoring or the foul line. If you must shoot to keep your defender honest, then do so. But don’t make a habit of it.

Maybe DeRozan himself will take a peek at some analytics. One can only hope.

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