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NCAA: Is Kris Dunn The Best Returning Prospect?

By Ezra Siegel

Mar 12, 2015; New York, NY, USA; St. John's guard Rysheed Jordan (23) defends against Providence guard Kris Dunn (3) during the second half of a quarterfinal game at Madison Square Garden. Providence defeated St. John's 74-57. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2015; New York, NY, USA; St. John's guard Rysheed Jordan (23) defends against Providence guard Kris Dunn (3) during the second half of a quarterfinal game at Madison Square Garden. Providence defeated St. John's 74-57. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Providence Friars’ year ended with a second-round exit against the Dayton Flyers, but if there is any bright spot from the disappointing season, it’s rising redshirt junior guard Kris Dunn’s play.

Despite flying under the radar for much of his sophomore season, Dunn was one of the nation’s top stat stuffers compiling an average of 15.6 points, 7.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.7 steals in 34 minutes. He certainly had his ups and downs, but his overall sensational season legitimized his stock as a top draft prospect.

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While it was hazy as to whether Dunn would return to Providence, he elected to stay with the Friars for another year. With top teammates LaDontae Henton and Carson Desrosiers graduating, Dunn now has the chance to be the alpha dog on a young Friars team.

There’s a long way to go before Dunn has to start preparing for the 2016 NBA Draft, but with a potentially weak draft class, all eyes will be on him through the upcoming season. He already has some top tier skills for a prospect, and if he shows improvement, he has an excellent chance of being a high lottery pick.

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A lot can certainly change in the next year, but for now, Dunn’s potential as a draft prospect is sky high. The question now becomes, can he improve upon both his strengths and his weaknesses this season and solidify his status as the top veteran prospect?

Kris Dunn: The Good

Dunn’s advanced playmaking sets him apart as a top prospect. His passing numbers are nothing short of eye-popping, and he likely would have been the top passer in the field if he had entered the 2015 NBA Draft.

With an already impressive 7.5 assists per game–good enough to be top-3 in the nation in assists–Dunn assisted a remarkable 50 percent of his teammates field goals while on the floor, the highest percentage in the nation. In total, he accounted for just under 54 percent of his team’s buckets with either an assist or made basket.

With ideal NBA size and athleticism, Dunn’s elite passing ability is bound to translate to the next level.

At 6’4”, 205-pounds, Dunn still has room to fill out, but he has an excellent frame for an NBA point guard. He is tall enough to see over his defender and strong enough to power through smaller guards on drives.

While he’s not an elite athlete, Dunn is certainly explosive when putting the ball on the floor and he has a knack for gaining separation with the dribble. He’s also an above average leaper and is capable of throwing down massive dunks, like below.

Dunn’s primary strong suit is setting up his teammates, but his scoring is nothing to sneeze at.

While he struggles finishing at times, Dunn got to the rim for 49 percent of his shots last season, which is an excellent indication that he can get to where he wants on the floor. He also showed a tendency to draw fouls while getting to line for five free throw attempts per game–a highly coveted skill at the next level.

As a shooter, Dunn leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s not a bad shooter and definitely not a liability in that regard.

Dunn’s best shooting came from mid range where he shot a respectable 42 percent and he showed a knack for pulling up out of the pick and roll when defenders went under the screen. He struggled a bit from behind the arc shooting 33 percent from long range, but he did have his moments from downtown and converted straight-away 3-pointers at a 42 percent rate.

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    • While Dunn is primarily an offense-driven prospect, his defensive skills are often overlooked.

    Fundamentally, Dunn still has some work to do on the defensive end, but more importantly, he showed that he can make plays ranking top-4 in the nation with 2.7 steals per game. He showed good instincts when jumping passing lanes and he has a long 6’8” wing span, which he uses to deflect balls and disrupt ball handlers.

    Dunn has the tools to succeed on both ends of the floor, and when factoring in his rebounding, he becomes the total package.

    Grabbing over four defensive rebounds per game and 16 percent of available defensive rebounds while on the floor, he’s proven to be an excellent defensive rebounder for a point guard. He only notched one triple double last season, but with his variety of skills on both ends of the floor, he’s bound to be a triple double threat in time.

    Dunn’s potential as an athlete, playmaker, scorer and defender make him a top prospect, but he’s also an analytics darling. He checks out in almost every rating for efficiency, but really excels in player efficiency rating and box plus minus with scores of 24.5 and 11.8 respectively, according to SportsReference.

    Overall, Dunn is already an extremely well rounded and intriguing prospect, and if he can show improvement in his junior season, he will leave NBA scouts drooling over the possibility of adding him in 2016.

    Mar 20, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Providence Friars guard Kris Dunn (3) dribbles while guarded by Dayton Flyers guard Jordan Sibert (24) during the first half in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
    Mar 20, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Providence Friars guard Kris Dunn (3) dribbles while guarded by Dayton Flyers guard Jordan Sibert (24) during the first half in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports /

    Kris Dunn: The Bad

    Dunn certainly has potential to be an outstanding all around player, but he doesn’t come without risk, especially when it comes to taking care of the ball.

    Naturally, young guards with high usage will be prone to turnovers, but Dunn’s turnover numbers are still disconcerting to say the least. With over four turnovers per game, he simply has to take better care of the ball.

    Given his usage–he finishes 28 percent of Providence’s possessions–Dunn’s turnover numbers are not necessarily the end of the world. Yet, at the end of the day, an assist to turnover ratio of 1.79 will leave scouts skeptical about his ability to play under control.

    In addition to turnovers, Dunn also lacked control at times when driving to the rim. According to ShotAnalytics, he converted a below-average 55 percent of his shots inside, and while his ability to get to the rim is a highly coveted skill, he will have to finish those attempts to take his game to the next level

    Dunn’s issues scoring at the rim and taking care of the ball may be improved in time, but for now, it’s something to watch in his junior year.

    Defensively, Dunn will have to sharpen his mechanics and improve his physicality, especially for when he gets to the NBA and has to guard physical specimens like Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. He’s currently an adequate on ball defender, but if he can continue to improve on that end he has potential to be a game changing defender with his size and athleticism.

    Another issue that scouts will have to watch out for is Dunn’s injury-riddled past.

    After tearing his labrum after his freshman year, Dunn was forced to redshirt in his initial sophomore four games into the season after re-injuring his shoulder and undergoing surgery. While it didn’t seem to bother him last season, there is always some semblance of a red flag on prospects who have missed entire seasons to injury.

    Kris Dunn: Overall Outlook

    Luckily for Dunn, his issues are mostly correctable and should be improved with more experience. If he shows even a slight improvement in taking care of the ball and finishing at the rim, it will go a long way in helping his stock.

    Yet, with an injury history and an older age for a prospect at 21-years-old, he decision to return to school is risky. He would have at least been in the conversation to be a lottery pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, but he decided to bet on himself to raise his stock and win more games this season.

    The bet seems to be paying off very early in the process, as in recent weeks, Dunn was touted as a top standout at the Nike Basketball Academy and was named to the All Nike Academy team as the group’s top point guard.

    “It’s going to be difficult to find a better point guard on the college level than Kris Dunn, who will be a junior at Providence in the coming season,” scout Frank Burlison wrote in his summary of the academy.

    Right now, Dunn leads a strong group of returning prospects that includes Utah’s Jakob Poeltl, Michigan’s Caris LeVert, Vanderbilt’s Damien Jones and North Carolina’s Demetrius Jackson. With another big year, Dunn could separate himself and become the decisive top veteran prospect, much like Kentucky product Willie Cauley-Stein did last season.

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