Phoenix Suns: P.J. Tucker or TJ Warren as the Starting SF?

The Phoenix Suns have a rather good problem heading into the 2015-16 season — they’ve improved their bench depth and as such, they now have a legitimate decision to make at the starting small forward spot.

P.J. Tucker is the resident starter, having manned the position 63 times last season, but TJ Warren is right on his tail after a solid rookie season and a sizzling Summer League performance where he averaged 18.7 points on 54 percent shooting. He added 3.6 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks in the Suns seven games.

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If this were baseball, we’d be looking at a platoon situation, as these two are much more yin-and-yang than redundant. One is more explosive offensively, the other is known as the team’s heart and soul defensively. So who should start?

THE CASE FOR STARTING P.J.

For the last three seasons, Tucker has drawn some extremely difficult assignments on the defensive end, as he’s been tasked with guarding the Kevin Durant‘s of the NBA. He fared well enough in 2014-15, holding opposing small forwards to a 14.0 efficiency rating (per 82games.com).

As the three-time reigning Dan Majerle Hustle Award winner, Tucker is the kind of gritty player that is often worth much more than his stats will show. He’s the first to hit the floor, doesn’t mind running through screens and plays like every possession is his last. Perhaps the best stat to add here is Tucker’s remarkable 3-point defense, where he held opponents to 5.1 percent worse than their season average.

The first part of this clip is vintage Tucker. Watch him defend on an island, winning his individual battle, then get back into the paint to secure the defensive rebound.

Another major bonus for Tucker is how he performed as the game wore on last season — though he could certainly close games without the starting spot — more on that later. Tucker shot 53.3 percent from the field in the fourth quarter with 9.5 rebounds and a plus-4.8 per-36 minutes.

A much less scientific measure — but one you get when you watch every second of every game — is how clutch Tucker was last season. If the team needed a big rebound, the 6-foot-6 Tucker navigated through the trees to pull the ball down. Per NBA.com, Tucker averaged an astounding 28.0 rebounds per-36 minutes in the last 30 seconds with the score +/- three points.

THE CASE FOR STARTING TJ

Warren is two inches taller than Tucker, though his 6-foot-8 frame is a bit more sleight. Warren is generously listed as being nine pounds lighter, though I’d put a healthy bet on that number being a little off. With that said, Warren’s length and style of play allows him to slice through the defense in a way that Tucker can’t.

TJ shot 72.5 percent at the rim last season (66-for-91), which would place him among the league leaders in that category if he played more minutes. His 68.5 percent in the restricted area on 2.7 attempts per game is just short of Kawhi Leonard‘s 69.4 percent on 2.9 attempts…just saying.

Watch Warren drop 31 on the Chicago Bulls during Summer League and pay close attention to the creativity he uses in getting to open spots on the floor.

Late last season, when the Suns lost 10 of their last 11 games, Warren was one of the only players who was cutting to the basket on offense. He’s very much a throwback offensively, with a game that couldn’t be described as silky smooth, but before you know it, the ball is in the basket and Warren is backpedaling to play defense.

In limited time, Warren shot 52.8 percent from the floor, including a scorching 64 percent in his 13 March games (17.6 minutes per game). When adjusted to a per-36 minute basis, Warren’s 14.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.1 steals was solid but unspectacular — then you remember he’s just 21 years old and that was his rookie season.

Although we can’t put too much stock into Summer League, Warren showed he’s becoming more comfortable taking control on the offensive end — which shouldn’t be a shock, as he did average 24.9 points per game in his last season at NC State.

WHAT’S MOST LIKELY

As I alluded to earlier, the player that starts the game doesn’t have to be the player that finishes the game. Coach Jeff Hornacek showed a penchant for going with the hot hand down the stretch last season, though I’d argue that having that kind of uncertainty isn’t conducive to a young player’s growth.

Most likely, Tucker will keep his starting spot because of his ability to defend multiple positions and stretch the floor. Warren coming off the bench means he’ll be paired with either Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight (not both), meaning he’ll have more shots available to him.

Will he be able to play the electric scorer role that Gerald Green vacated? I don’t think so, but it’s hard to ignore Warren’s ability to score in bunches from in close — something the Suns couldn’t do last year.

What do you think, Suns fans? Vote below.

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