Miami Heat: Is Birdman Done Soaring Over South Beach?

The Miami Heat have retooled their roster for the upcoming season, mixing some familiar and fresh faces in the hopes of contending for a championship. A weak-scoring bench has become an area of strength, particularly with the additions of veterans Amar’e Stoudemire and Gerald Green, as well as rookie Justise Winslow. Add the return of Josh McRoberts to full health and suddenly Chris Andersen is no longer the necessary component he once was.

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It’s telling how much can change in the NBA over a relatively short amount of time. When Andersen was added to the roster midway through the 2012-13 season, Miami was counting on Chris Bosh at center and lacked size at the position. The Heat could roll out smaller players like Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony for a spell, providing earnest defense that didn’t translate into any points, rebounds or necessary rim-protection.

Andersen, at least in spurts, was able to provide all three.

The team has been so dramatically altered since that time that it’s easy to forget the spark that Andersen was, the “Birdman” flying in dramatically off the bench to excite the crowd with a crucial dunk. But just three seasons later and it appears that his wings will be clipped permanently at the AmericanAirlines Arena.

Sun-Sentinel reporter Ira Winderman was recently asked about trade rumors circulating about a number of players. His response is what many have suspected about Andersen’s chance of re-signing in Miami:

"“I’d say lowest percentage of any regulars we’re talking about being dealt because, let’s face it, a $5 million guy (Andersen’s salary for the upcoming season) in the Heat’s tax bracket costs about $20 million against the tax. And when you look at how they’re gonna play, if Whiteside comes out there’s a very good chance Amar’e Stoudemire goes in and if Chris Bosh goes out there’s a very good chance — at least for now — Josh McRoberts goes in. So when you talk about fifth string and your big men and you still have Udonis Haslem because he’s never leaving, then I think you really have to consider Birdman sort of superfluous at $5 million.”"

Superfluous. Hardly the way to describe the player that had been such a vital part of Miami’s historic 27-game win streak – and subsequent championship – during Andersen’s first season with the Heat.

Sadly enough, there’s hardly any guarantee that Stoudemire, the player most likely to replace Andersen in the rotation, will be much more effective. Birdman appeared in 60 games for the Heat last season, while Stoudemire played in 59 (splitting time between the Knicks and Mavericks). Andersen’s defensive rating (99.9) was significantly better than the oft-injured Stoudemire (108.4), who was never a great defender but has been limited by recurring knee issues over the past few seasons.

As a scorer, you’d have to give Amar’e a slight nod, but those numbers are skewed by his number of possessions compared to Andersen, who has always been Miami’s fifth option on the floor. But even when looking at both players’ specialty – finishing at the rim – Andersen comes out on top, scoring at 66 percent rate to Stoudemire’s 63.8.

In terms of rebounding, Andersen also has the clear advantage, sporting a healthy 23.2 total rebounding rate compared to the ground-bound Stoudemire, who measured out at just 12.1 percent last season.

In the final analysis, it seems that the only area in which Stoudemire edges Andersen is in his team-friendly contract. Having signed the veteran minimum to join Miami for one year, he represents clear savings over Andersen’s $5 million deal (plus the resulting tax of double that).

Miami’s been in this position before, unfortunately. Having paid the repeater penalty for being over the salary cap for four of the past five seasons, they’ve had to make other unpopular moves in the past. Using the team’s amnesty provision to waive Mike Miller had a long-term effect of upsetting LeBron James, who eventually spurned the Heat to join the Cleveland Cavaliers. There was even a side effect when the seldom-used Anthony was traded to the Boston Celtics midway through the 2013-14 season. Following the team’s visit to the White House to commemorate their second-straight title, Anthony was shipped to the Celtics to avoid paying a good chunk of his salary.

When the team played the Wizards the next day, the group looked lethargic, upset and disjointed; the Heat were down by over 30 at one point in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Numerous reports have indicated that this season, the last of the “Big 3” era, was an emotionally-taxing one and the loss of Miller and Anthony were certainly factors. Sometimes, players have an impact far beyond the numbers in the box score or the ones at the bottom of a spreadsheet.

Andersen, a popular player in the stands and in the locker room, is likely on the way out and with Miami counting on making a deep playoff run, you wonder if history will repeat itself.

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