In the past 10 years, Monta Ellis has experienced some of the wildest ups and downs a basketball player can endure. Not because of personal issues, health concerns, or problems handling the fame. Instead, his ups and downs have been centered around his teams, and how he’s fit within their plan.
As a member of the Golden State Warriors (2005-12), Ellis pretty much witnessed it all. He was there for the turmoil during his rookie year, under Mike Montgomery. He was there for the drastic shift in 2007, when the Warriors squeezed into the playoffs and upset one of the greatest regular season teams of all-time. It was during that time, that Don Nelson nearly doubled Ellis’ playing time during his sophomore year — with Ellis seeing a 16.2 minute increase per game.
After the (second round) honeymoon ended in Golden State, Ellis stuck around for the more depressing years — the Warriors only captured 114 wins from 2008 to 2012, out of a possible 312 games.
Thus, there was no point for the Warriors to continue down their failing path. Ellis was dealt to Milwaukee towards the end of the 2011-12 season, which gave Golden State the chance to build a new backcourt … built around the league’s upcoming sniper. Stephen Curry was on the rise, and removing Ellis from the team gave the Warriors a chance to allow Curry more power in the offense. It also gave them a authoritative rim-protector in Andrew Bogut.
"“To [Ellis’] credit, he’s a pretty good player right now,” Don Nelson said in 2013. “When I had him, all he wanted to do, little selfish bastard, was to shoot every time. And never pass.”"
Ellis shared a backcourt with Brandon Jennings for two seasons in Milwaukee, with limited success in a disgraceful Eastern Conference. After he signed with the Dallas Mavericks during the summer of 2013, it was supposed to be a career resurrection for Ellis. He was finally on a team capable of winning 50+ games, finally had a coach that understands how to handle player personalities and orchestrate a balanced offense, and was back to playing a fast-paced style in the Western Conference.
It wasn’t necessarily Dallas’ decision to move on from Ellis this summer. He had an opt-out clause in his contract, and chose not to exercise the final year of his deal, which would have paid him $8.7 million. He decided to bet on his free agency value — turning 30 years old before next season begins — in order to make more long-term money.
"“For him to get one last really big deal, to me, was a no-brainer,” Dirk Nowitzki said in June. “I would’ve liked to kept him [in Dallas], but you know how it is in this league. Once people hit free agency, it’s tough to call.”"
Although Ellis only spent two years under Rick Carlisle, it shouldn’t be described as a “disappointing” time of his career. In fact, you would be surprised at how much he loved the organization. When introduced by the Pacers earlier this month, Ellis claimed that playing for the Mavericks actually got him “back to loving the game of basketball again.”
It was quite humorous, because of the validity to his statement. It’s not hard to believe the Milwaukee environment from 2011-13, being annoyed coached by Scott Skiles, would take the enjoyment away from a prolific scoring guard like Ellis.
In Dallas, however, he actually gave the Mavericks a boost. Ellis accounted for 19.2 percent of Dallas’ field goal attempts in 2014-15, along with 17.5 percent of its scoring total — both the highest on the team’s roster.
It’s not like Ellis was extremely inefficient with his shot selection last season, as most people try to shape his narrative that way. He did rank 13th on the Mavericks’ roster in true shooting percentage (just 4.9% above the horrific Rajon Rondo), but that was mainly due to his unsuccessful 3-point shooting. Ellis was barely above 30% from long-range during his entire stint with Dallas, but he still managed to shoot 44.5% on all his field goals last year — a pretty respectable number for a guard his size. You just wish he would stop jacking 3.6 triples per game, when defenses know he’s not a reliable threat from outside.
One problem could strike the 11-year veteran this upcoming season, though.
Instead of sticking with a team (Dallas) that never finished above 20th in defensive rating with him in the lineup, Ellis is joining an organization that values defensive intensity more than any other franchise in the league.
Although the Indiana Pacers slipped defensively last season because of Paul George‘s injury (finishing seventh in defensive rating, six spots below their 2013-14 finish), they are still controlled by a defensive maestro in Frank Vogel, and a throwback owner in Larry Bird.
Throughout each season, both Vogel and Bird preach about the discipline Indiana has when it comes to stopping stronger opponents. After all, Bird was the chief of some 1986 roster that completely embarrassed its competition defensively.
Roy Hibbert (Lakers) and David West (Spurs) may be gone from the Pacers’ lineup. Yes, they may have also been two of the team’s best three defenders since 2012. The roster Indiana has assembled for next season doesn’t set them up for another top-10 defensive group.
When you consider that Ellis is entering the starting lineup for Vogel, the initial reaction would be to get bummed out about his poor defense. Dating all the way back to his days in the Bay Area, Ellis never had a desirable reputation when it came to stopping the ball, rotating on defense, or even sticking with his own man off-the-ball.
He didn’t waste any time turning some heads in Indiana, when he spoke for the first time about his fit with the Pacers.
“It’s all opinions,” Ellis said about his defensive criticism. “There’s only a handful of guys in this league that play defense. You can name five of them, and one of them is on my team. I don’t worry about that. I go out and do whatever I need to do to help my team win.”
Asked Ellis if it's going to be a challenge playing under Vogel's tough defensive system. His answer:https://t.co/H5P4nvwfs8
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) July 14, 2015
Ellis doesn’t worry about defense? Or he doesn’t worry about the negative remarks that keep getting echoed?
Perhaps it’s both. For the sake of the Pacers, a franchise that just signed Ellis for the next four years ($11 million annually), they better hope it’s the latter.
Having the type of attitude that doesn’t cherish defensive opportunities isn’t the right way to start your first chapter in Indiana. You could probably get away with that in, say, Sacramento … a team that offered Ellis more money this summer. But not the Pacers. Not alongside Paul George, an insanely gifted two-player comparable to Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James. Not under Coach Vogel, who has a lot of guard options off the bench.
Last season, it’s possible that Ellis’ infirmities on defense could have been overblown. Sure, he’s not going to make any All-Defensive teams or inject fear into superstars’ eyes, but it’s not comparable to James Harden‘s laughing stock during the 2013-14 season. That still takes the cake for the biggest outcry in history over someone’s defense.
It’s understood — judging a player’s defense just off his “steals” production would be ridiculous, because the range of skills it takes to be a solid defensive guard goes far beyond stripping the ball, or breaking up passing lanes.
However, Ellis did have a strong point for his defense last year: Only seven players in the NBA recorded at least 2.2 defensive win shares last season, while also grabbing at least 1.9 steals per game. Those talents were Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Tony Allen … and Monta Ellis.
It does come by surprise, and should be noted that Ellis clearly had the lowest defensive win shares of those seven players (just 2.2 for the year).
As it pertains to defending a scorer, Ellis did a better job than expected with the Mavericks.
Against all offensive players he faced last season, Ellis allowed scorers to shoot just 42% from the field. On average, the usual field goal percentage of the shooters he faced was 43.2% — giving Ellis a -1.2% differential when it comes to defending potential field goals. In this regard, it’s simple: The lower the differential, the better it is for that player’s “defensive impact.” Essentially, it means that Ellis held his opponents to a lower efficiency than they’re used to.
A strong argument could be made right off the bat. “Just because his differential is negative, it doesn’t mean anything due to it only being by 1.2 points.”
That’s completely true. It doesn’t validate that Ellis is a “great” defensive player, or even a competent one. It’s just working towards the main point, which is that he isn’t absolutely detrimental to a team’s defense.
Using the method explained above for a measure of “defensive impact,” it creates some interesting examples.
For instance, Kawhi Leonard held his opponents to 44.2% shooting for the season, just a -0.4% differential from their usual efficiency. Chris Paul’s opponents shot 42.4% overall, giving him a -1.4% differential. Then, you have the freak of nature, Tony Allen. Allen’s offensive players shot 37% from the field through 64 games, an astounding 6.8% below their normal field goal percentage.
No, I’m not claiming Ellis is in the same category as any of these guys’ defensive prowess. Stay with me.
In all actuality, Ellis didn’t have a bad impact on the Mavericks’ defense while he was on the court. He didn’t give them a defensive increment like many two-way shooting guards would’ve, but it wasn’t a calamity for Rick Carlisle to have him out there:
With Ellis on the floor last season (2,700 minutes), Dallas allowed it’s opponents to score 106.2 points per 100 possessions. With Ellis off the floor (1,277 minutes), however, they allowed 106.3 points per 100 possessions. There wasn’t any difference in Dallas’ overall defensive production, meaning he didn’t exactly harm the team as a whole.
The Mavericks’ field goal percentage defense also tells an accepting story for Ellis.
Dallas forced its opponents to shoot 49.9% from the field with Ellis on the floor. When he was sitting, their opponents shot 51.4% from the field — a 1.5% increase, which helps Ellis’ case for the overblown criticism. Ellis also gave the Mavericks a 1.3% increase in opponent turnover percentage, meaning he was helping cause more disruption.
In the highly-respected Real Plus-Minus system (which estimates a player’s true plus-minus rating and tries to eliminate the effect of teammates), Ellis made a slightly-positive difference for the Mavericks. After recording a -1.52 rating in 2013-14 in defensive real plus-minus, Ellis finished last season with a +0.11 rating.
If you only considered shooting guards that played at least 25 minutes per game, Ellis’ +0.11 rating would rank 15th. It’s still nothing spectacular, but at least he improved it from his awful first season in Dallas.
For these reasons, The Pacers shouldn’t exactly be discouraged by Ellis’ comments about the defensive end during his introduction.
Ellis: "I think the East (offenses) are more of a halfcourt set, while the West is more up-tempo." Says that should help him stand out here
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) July 14, 2015
Even though he’s still quick on his feet at age 30, Ellis isn’t going to lock up bigger guards on the court. His size doesn’t allow for it, and 90% of his energy is expended on offense — which fits the stereotype for an NBA player that “doesn’t play defense.”
Nevertheless, it’s okay to find the middle-ground while evaluating him as a player. Not every statement has to be foaming-at-the-mouth optimistic about his fit with Indiana. At the same token, not every piece of criticism has to make him out to be the worst defender in the league.
When Indiana’s new additions were introduced this month, Larry Bird made some very specific goals for the team’s performance next year.
Could the Pacers add to their scoring production without sacrificing a little bit of their defensive power?
“Never,” Bird said. He’s not delusional — it’s clear that adding a new frontcourt to the mix, while losing a top three rim-protector in the league, will force the Pacers to give up more points on a nightly basis.
“But, if we score eight more points a game, and give away two more a game … that’s a plus-six,” Bird said. “That’s we’re looking for.”
It’s great to see the Pacers transforming from the stone-age of the NBA. Now, they’re adjusting to what’s “normal” in today’s game: Putting more versatile play-makers on the floor, pushing closer to 100 possessions in a game, and putting more pressure on opposing defenses.
That’s the big one.
The recent playoff production from Ellis would heavily support Bird’s new plan: Although the Mavericks allowed 2.3 more points per 100 possessions with Ellis on the court vs. Houston, they were also a +21.6 on the offensive end with Ellis on the court. Therefore, Ellis’ offensive fire was too much for Carlisle to rest him for his bad defense in the first round.
Indiana may face a similar theme during the upcoming season. You have to expect Vogel to take some time adjusting to the smaller game, and how to properly adjust his lineups for the up-tempo style.
While the adjusting is taking place, they now have a skilled veteran that’s ready to score in bunches.
It’s just up to Ellis to buy into Indiana’s defensive culture, for the long-term purpose. Both sides have to be ready for change.
**All statistical support credited to NBA.com/Stats**