“The best laid plans of mice and men, often go awry … ”
— paraphrased in English, from the Scottish poem, “To a Mouse” by Robert Burns
That’s the thing about plans, really, is that you never know if they’re going to work exactly as you conceived them. There’s a risk involved, no matter how meticulously you prepare for every possibility. In sport, it often rests on the health of a team, held together by a ligament or a small length of tendon.
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And with NBA free agency, minds can be swayed, agreements can be broken and the future of a team can be sent left to crumble in the dust.
The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks represent two different ends of the free agency spectrum, the former usually enjoys success while the latter has swung and missed on several occasions.
The Mavs fan base has always enjoyed being able to count on forward Dirk Nowitzki to take the “hometown discount” in free agency, signing a lesser deal than possible to provide flexibility to sign free agents. The Heat have counted on the same thing, mostly due to Dwyane Wade‘s contractual decisions.
Deron Williams. Dwight Howard. Carmelo Anthony. Chris Bosh. And now, DeAndre Jordan.
This is just a partial list of free agents the Mavericks’ front office has tried to woo in recent years, only to have all of them rebuff the team to sign elsewhere. Nowitzki’s contract allowed Dallas to pursue other top players. But after his latest debacle, the team now finds itself reduced to meaninglessness in the Western Conference and Nowitzki wasting what’s left of his historic career.
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Conversely, Wade’s decisions have always been a boon to both himself and the Heat. When he signed a short-term deal in 2007, it was with the goal of rebuilding in 2010 after an aging Shaquille O’Neal would eventually move on (as he did in 2008, via a trade to Phoenix).
Wade’s foresight allowed the team to pursue — and importantly add — LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Mike Miller.
Wade was rewarded with four straight trips to the NBA Finals and two additional titles.
In 2014, he exercised the option on his deal and signed a two-year contract that allowed Miami to re-sign Bosh to a lucrative deal. And Wade’s prudent decision allowed him to cash in heavily this summer while still allowing the team to have enough salary cap space next year to lure in another top-level superstar.
Fans will look to Nowitizki’s “sacrifice” and consider it admirable; there’s something to be said for giving up individual compensation for the sake of the team. But his choices haven’t paid off and it’s clear, as written by Bleacher Report’s Stephen Babb, that the championship success they hoped to achieve isn’t a realistic goal:
"Part of the problem is that Nowitzki is no longer a superstar in his prime. Effective as the 37-year-old is, he isn’t the type to single-handedly carry a club on the offensive end anymore. The real question is whether he has enough help to make one last run before the Mavericks commence the post-Dirk era in earnest. And if recent free-agent reactions are any indication, this team seems to be more than one piece short of its ambitions."
Some might point to San Antonio’s front office success as another contrast to the Mavs’ woes. But it’s an unfair comparison because, to be honest, no one else can match their sustained level of success.
They’ve found young players through the draft to carry the team, and they’ve signed free agents from elsewhere (LaMarcus Aldridge) and their own team (Tim Duncan) to substantial discounts.
But if the Spurs represent unparalleled success, then the Heat can be considered just below them. Their future, both in the short- and long-term, is a bright one. And that’s a sharp contrast from where Dallas will find themselves over the next few years of the “post-Dirk era.”
Not all plans work out the way you’d like them to, a harsh reality the Mavericks will have to accept and the Heat have managed to avoid.