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Who Should The Atlanta Hawks Start At Small Forward?

By Troy Tauscher

Dec 30, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) and forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Thabo Sefolosha (25) on the court against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the fourth quarter at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Cavaliers 109-101. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 30, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) and forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Thabo Sefolosha (25) on the court against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the fourth quarter at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Cavaliers 109-101. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /
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With a lot of time (too much time in my opinion) before the next NBA season starts up, each team has several questions to answer. For the Atlanta Hawks, they have one big issue that stands out. Their starting small forward, DeMarre Carroll, is headed north to join the Toronto Raptors, and it is uncertain who will replace him.

The Hawks have a myriad of options to replace Carroll, but none of them are especially attractive. Looking first at the outside market, the free agent well is relatively dry. All starting caliber wings have been signed. Dorell Wright is probably the closest thing the Hawks could get on the market.

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This wouldn’t be a bad move. Wright is a 38 percent three-point shooter, an acceptable defender, and he won’t start a fight in the locker room. The problem is that Wright played only 12.3 mintes per game for the Portland Trail Blazers last season. He may be a reasonable acquisition for the team, but he’s not the starter.

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Looking within the team, there are three players who could reasonably start at the three for Atlanta. The favorite right now is likely Thabo Sefolosha, who had a good season until an incident with New York Police resulted in him breaking a leg and missing the playoffs. Thabo is 6’7″, a lockdown defender and fills a role on offense with spot-up corner threes. In this regard, he probably is the most alike to Carroll and could fill his role, particular defensively, the best.

The problem is that Sefolosha does not bring the same amount of offensive talent that Carroll does. He shot only 32 percent from deep last season, while Carroll shot 39 percent. Sefolosha was the guy that defensives cheated off of when he played for the Thunder. He’s just not a consistently reliable offensive player. The Hawks, without a superstar, will struggle to play 4-on-5 offense for long stretches of time when Sefolosha has those off nights.

The Hawks could also play Paul Millsap at the three spot, and roll with Horford and the newly added Tiago Splitter in the backcourt. This lineup could be their best route. Millsap is a fine passer and has the foot speed necessary to defend star forwards off the dribble.

This lineup could be the best performing lineup Atlanta can muster, and if it works, it would easily justify Atlanta’s decision to sign Millsap over Carroll.

I am a card-carrying member of the DeMarre Carroll fan club, but $15 million per year was too expensive. Millsap can function at the three and keep the ball moving. The idea that Paul Millsap is the right kind of player for Hawks-style ball is not a shocking piece of data. If the Hawks can effectively spread the floor, Millsap can facilitate from the midrange area to guys like Splitter. On the other hand, he can hit the post himself and find corner shooters.

Again the issue comes down to spacing. Millsap shot 36 percent from deep last season, but only 23 percent of his shots were three pointers. A lineup of Millsap-Horford-Spliiter doesn’t have enough shooting to make defenses come out of the paint and cover ground. The Hawks will sacrifice spacing with either of these options, because neither of them are as reliable spot up shooters as Carroll was.

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    • The last player the Hawks could slot at small forward is Kyle Korver, starting him next to Tim Hardaway Jr. on the wing. If Hardaway can start making shots again and Korver can still be himself, the Hawks would have a very potent offensive lineup playing a substantial amount of minutes with very good shooting. The issue here is that Tim hardaway Jr. is a really bad defensive player, and Korver may be too old and too small to handle LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant or Paul George.

    The point is that the Hawks will have to decide what they value most in this adjustment to their starting lineup. If they want the best perimeter defense lineup, Sefolosha is the clear pick. They can then switch Millsap onto bigger forwards and slot him to the second best guy, or whatever the matchup requires.

    If they want a lineup that has the best movement and gets all three big guys starter time, they’ll have to go with Millsap. Sefolosha isn’t a ball-stopper, but he’s not a gifted passer either. Perhaps with Millsap passing from the high post or the midrange area, Atlanta can make up for lost spacing. In this lineup with Jeff Teague, Korver, Horford and Splitter, everyone knows their offensive role and there’s no one who’s liable to take bad shots.

    This lineup is unlikely to be the permanent starting group, but rather something Atlanta has in its pocket for the right situations. It’s worth nothing that according to Basketball Reference estimates, Paul Millsap has not played small forward with the Hawks at all.

    If the Hawks decide to keep with the space-first offense, Hardaway-Korver will be their starting wing pair. I doubt we’ll see this, because Mike Budenholzer is smart and knows what his personnel can and cannot do.

    In the end, I’d wager they start Sefolosha unless they pull off a trade for someone else. It just seems like the most palatable combination of need for spacing and need for wing defenders. It also would shock me if they didn’t bust out Millsap at the three when they need Splitter in for rim protection for extended periods of time.

    Regardless of how they choose to rectify it, the loss of DeMarre Carroll poses a challenge to Coach Bud and the franchise. Carroll played a big role in the Hawks’ success last season, and failing to replace it would be a step back for the team. It’s certainly a dilemma with logic arguments for multiple solutions. It will be interesting to see which one they roll out on opening night.

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