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DeMarre Carroll’s Free Agency: How Much Is He Worth?

By Troy Tauscher

May 24, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) looks to make a play aginat Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
May 24, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) looks to make a play aginat Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports /
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Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll’s free agency will be an interesting case study in what teams value in the modern NBA. Carroll experienced something of a breakout season in 2014-2015. He didn’t see massive statistical improvement (11.1 points per game in 2013, 12.6 last season), but his reputation certainly grew. Being the primary wing defender for a 60-win team has that kind of effect.

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Carroll has now made a name for himself as a “3 and D” player, a brand that is growing in popularity with the way the NBA is changing. Teams are shooting more and more threes and increasing need three or four player who can shoot them efficiently. Teams also need at least one player who can lock down opposing superstars and shooters, no easy task in an era where LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony are the biggest names at the small forward position.

Carroll, a six-year veteran who has bounced from team to team, is on the market again. This time, he has proved his value, and will likely command very competitive offers from multiple teams. The Detroit Pistons, New Orleans Pelicans, and Los Angeles Lakers among others, all have Carroll on radar.

The question is how much is Carroll worth? On one hand, it’s relative easy to make the argument that 12 points and five boards per game isn’t a rare commodity. This is true, but it is Carroll’s defense and general blue-collar style of play that make him a very attractive addition to many teams.

Carroll is most useful as the primary one-on-one defender, taking the opposing teams best perimeter player. He does this job quiet well. Opposing players shot 4.3 percent below their average from deep when Carroll was defending them. He was a main cog in the Hawks effort to stop LeBron in the Eastern Finals as evidenced by the lack of hope the Hawks had after his injury during that series. Carroll also is effective at creating turnovers, averaging 1.3 steals per game last season.

Besides being a very solid wing defender, Carroll is a good spot up shooter. He doesn’t really create his own shot on the move, but when he gets the ball and can pull up, he is quite productive. He was ninth in points scored off spot up shots last season. In a system like Atlanta’s, which relies heavily on ball movement, this creates an ideal fit for Carroll’s offensive talent. He doesn’t have to create his own  shots.

In the NBA as it is today, a guy who quietly grinds on the defensive end and doesn’t need the ball to be effective is a nice change of pace. A team like Atlanta, who wins without a superstar, needs a guy like Carroll who can slow down the other teams’ star and even the playing field a bit. Carroll is that guy.

As suggested, this means that the Hawks have a great need to retain Carroll or find a serviceable alternative. Due to his experience level and a bunch of other complicated salary cap factors, Carroll’s max contract could be around $16 million per year. That’s a really steep price, one he likely will not get. However, according to ESPN, the Hawks are preparing for the possibility that a four-year, $50 million deal will be his price. This creates a bit of an unfavorable situation, as Atlanta will be unable to pay that to Carroll and retain star player Paul Millsap.

Atlanta would need to dump a couple of smaller salaries or otherwise open some more space to make it possible to bring back both of these important players. The Hawks were unable to compensate for lack of star talent without Carroll, and that will be a permanent ailment if he leaves and is not replaced. The Hawks should not hesitate to pay Carroll the rumored price if they have a plan in place to retain him and Millsap.

Ultimately, what Carroll makes  on his next contract will suggest something about the direction of future NBA contracts. If  you make shot up shots and do the dirty work of defense and rebounding, teams nowadays are becoming ever more inclined to pay you handsomely. The Hawks should be prepared to big very highly to keep him, because he is essential to their structure and fits well in their system. Like many other players, DeMarre Carroll‘s free agency experience will be something worth keeping an eye on.

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