As the June 25 NBA Draft quickly approaches, one thing is certain: no one knows what’s going to happen.
That extends to the Miami Heat, a team dealing with unexpected drama regarding Dwyane Wade and the possible shakeup of a roster that was counting on stability to make a playoff run next season. Instead, Wade could join Goran Dragic and Luol Deng as free agents and sign elsewhere, leaving a team with glaring holes at the wing position.
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Which makes the draft all that much more essential to Miami’s chance at future success.
Arizona’s Stanley Johnson has been linked to the Heat in more than one draft. And, despite not working out for the team as per Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel, team president Pat Riley is rumored to be fond of Johnson’s potential and immediate impact.
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Johnson, however, is seen as a top talent and is likely to be drafted before Miami makes the 10th selection. Indeed, a recent trade by Detroit (which currently holds the eighth pick) has left the small forward position as the Pistons’ biggest need.
Why is Johnson in such high demand? Numerous scouting reports point to his physical development and versatility as key factors. At 6’7″ and with a 6’11” wingspan, the 19-year-old has the height and length to guard both forward positions; at a chiseled 245 pounds, he’s also strong enough to handle bigger players in the frontcourt.
As the NBA puts an increasing amount of stock in a player being able to play and defend numerous positions, Johnson clearly fits the mold.
He’s also a decent shooter, converting 37.1 percent of his 3-point attempts (and with a true shooting percentage of 55.1 percent) during his one year at Arizona. A pre-draft workout video shows him launching long-range shots with ease:
On the surface, he surely looks impressive. But Johnson struggled with consistency as a scorer, as indicated by his performance in the NCAA tournament. He scored 22 points against an inferior Texas Southern team, only to log four points in his next outing against Ohio State (on 1-of-12 shooting); he scored just 18 total points in his next two games.
The main issue with Johnson’s potential for ugly shooting nights is two-fold. He reportedly implemented a floating layup at Arizona that he used too frequently and with little success (he shot just 43.8 percent at the rim and only 48 percent in the tournament).
He also struggled finishing through contact — as pointed out in one scouting report, he seemed more intent on drawing contact for a foul than making the shot.
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There were also questions about his decision making (he’s been labeled as “prone to tunnel vision” when he decides to score) and he hasn’t always involved his teammates despite his skills as a playmaker.
So how would he fit in Miami? Despite the physical tools, it doesn’t seem likely that Johnson is ready to start if Deng does leave the Heat. There’s something about his inconsistency that smacks too much of Michael Beasley — both are absolutely gifted but that doesn’t always translate on a game-to-game basis.
As a reserve, Johnson doesn’t seem to be much of an improvement over James Ennis.
Still, there’s definitely talent there and it’s possible that the right fit could help Johnson reach his full potential. It just doesn’t seem that Miami is the ideal location for him.
If the Pistons’ latest deal was a play to clear space for Johnson via the draft, they could have been doing the Heat an unexpected favor. While he may look the part, there’s still a lot of work for him to go beyond the surface and become the consistent player that Miami needs next season.
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