Orlando Magic: How Much Time Does Scott Skiles Have?

With the NBA Finals in full swing and continuing to provide great entertainment, the other 28 teams in the league have taken a rightful back seat while we wait and see who will be crowned world champions. For the Orlando Magic, and many other rebuilding teams, this is a welcome period out of the spotlight.

With next month’s NBA draft, as well as the beginning of free agency, they will be in the news plenty throughout the summer.

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So in some ways, hiring new head coach Scott Skiles when they did was a smart move. He was brought in, there was a couple of days discussion by many on whether they felt he was the right man for the job, and then the basketball world moved on to other more important things. Right now Skiles can operate under zero pressure, and get to know his players in relative obscurity.

Looking ahead to next season though, just how much time does Skiles have in charge of the Magic before his position comes under fire? That is to say, how bad would things have to get before this organization decides to fire him and move in another direction?

For the record, I think the hiring of Skiles was a good move. He’s got the right experience of leading young teams to the playoffs and having moderate success there (As he did with the Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns a decade ago).

This is more about what if the worst case scenario unfolds, and the Magic are unable to move forward in the way they probably should given the considerable young talent on this team.

I think we can all agree that Jacque Vaughn held onto his position as head coach with this team for too long before being let go. He last just more than two and a half seasons, amassing a 58-258 record in the process. What was most puzzling about that last season however was exactly how he managed to cling on to power for so long.

It was clear he’d lost the dressing room, and many of his rotations and offensive sets clearly weren’t working to even the more casual fans.

It’s my opinion that, if the Magic had owned up to the fact that the partnership wasn’t working sooner, this team could have had a much better season last year. When James Borrego took over the team on an interim basis, immediately there was a lift among the players, and their defensive intensity and willingness to play hard for the new coach was there for all to see.

Yes Borrego had been an assistant before being asked to temporarily steady the ship, so he already had a relationship with the players. But the new face leading them on the sideline gave everybody as boost. Skiles is likely to have the same impact, again I’m not here to criticize his coaching abilities. But let’s say he doesn’t, how long should he be left in charge for?

Clearly there is more at stake than when Vaughn was given the job in 2012. Back then the roster had been gutted as a result of the Dwight Howard trade, and that feeling of shock hung in the air for quite a while.

There were zero expectations, and yet Vaughn still managed to underachieve, failing to break 25 wins during his two full years in charge (The closest he got was 23 in 2013/14, while he was 15-37 when he was fired. After his dismissal, the team managed to get to 25 wins, finishing the season 25-57).

Now, however, there is a sense of expectancy. Nikola Vucevic inked a new four-year deal at the beginning of last season, and is arguably the best young big man in the league. Victor Oladipo continues to make improvements, and he figures to play an even greater role for this team next year. Should Tobias Harris stay, he’ll also be a big help.

He was one of the most improved players in the league last time out. Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and the incoming fifth pick in the draft will round out the core nicely.

So let’s say Skiles gets off to a truly terrible start, 2-10 for example, what then? This is meant to be the season we see real improvement, maybe even a run at the playoffs that will probably ultimately fall short. But just being in contention for the postseason up until the All-Star break would be something.

The schedule can be cruel however, and there’s every chance it will work against this team to have them fighting an upward battle from the start.

What if things get no better and the squad limps to another season of winning less than 30 games? Oladipo will then be entering the last year of his rookie deal, and he may not like what he sees.

Losing him would set this team back considerably, certainly into the lottery again. Suddenly Orlando is back at square one, with no clear face of the team and a head coach who has failed to take this team forward. Sound familiar?

Of course this is a very bleak outlook for the future, but we’d be kidding ourselves if we didn’t at least acknowledge that this could happen. As these playoffs have shown, the Eastern Conference is not as weak as we all believed.

Should a couple of notable free agents switch conferences as well (LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, not to mention possibly Kevin Durant in 2016) it will become even harder to win. That’s why the time to make a noticeable move is next season.

The flip side of this is that Orlando could fly out of the gates next year, en route to winning just shy of 40 games. Then we can look back at this and talk about how foolish it ever was to think Skiles wasn’t the right man for the job. Until then however, there will be doubt surrounding not only his abilities, but the entire team as well.

Perhaps most worrying of all, however, is the fact that, no matter how badly Skiles does in year one, he’ll still likely be given all of the season to figure it out. Orlando can’t afford to cut ties with him quickly if this all goes south. Financially they’d take a hit, while management would just look bad in doing so as well.

They’d keep him in charge to save face if that were the case, another worrying thought. This is why this coaching hire was a vital one, and not everybody was overly thrilled with the appointment.

So while all is calm right now while LeBron James singlehandedly tries to take down the Golden State Warriors, there will come a time in the near future when the Magic are once again being talked about nationally. They got their coaching business done early and will look to add well in the draft. Ultimately though, if the coach doesn’t fit with this team, it won’t matter.

If that’s the case, we can only hope the Magic don’t wait as long to act this time round.

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