Could Paul Millsap Leaving Help Al Horford, The Hawks?

By Ti Windisch | Jun 11, 2015

May 22, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) controls the ball against Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) during the first quarter in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

Paul Millsap is a great player and will undoubtedly continue to play very well, regardless of where he goes in free agency. That being said, Atlanta Hawks fans might want to secretly hope he ends up on another team. Millsap will be expensive, although the Hawks can afford to pay someone this offseason, the money isn’t a problem.

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It should just go towards a different player. Millsap plays above average offense and defense according to his stellar ratings in both categories, but I’m more interested in another number–rebounds. Millsap’s numbers there are strong as well (he pulls in almost eight boards per game), but his rebounding isn’t what worries me about the Hawks’ frontcourt–Al Horford‘s is.

Horford pulls in just over seven boards a game, which is pretty poor for a center. His actual number, 7.2 per game, ranks him 38th among all players, tied with San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard. Although poor shooting and injuries also plagued the Hawks in their disastrous series against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, rebounding really killed Atlanta’s chances.

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The Cavs outrebounded the Hawks by an average of almost 13 boards a game in the ECF, meaning they stole away an extra dozen possessions per game. That kind of rebounding means even if the teams shot roughly the same, Cleveland would still have a clear advantage.

The offensive glass was even worse for Atlanta. This is a spot where their frontcourt, while talented on offense and defense, is woefully weak. Horford and Millsap averaged 3.6 offensive boards this regular season…combined.

This was pronounced in the Conference Finals when the Cavaliers often went big with both Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson in the game at once, both of whom are in the top 20 in offensive rebounds per game. Neither Horford nor Millsap crack the top 30.

The result? Cleveland grabbed double-digit offensive rebounds in all four games of the series, Atlanta never got more than seven. Those extra possessions are so huge in determining games, and the only reason the offensively-nonexistent Thompson stands to make max money this offseason.

Being gritty and attacking the glass becomes extra important in the postseason, when games are usually tighter and officials are more hesitant to call fouls on players battling in the paint. Every possession matters, and the Hawks just didn’t have enough of them to overcome Cleveland.

Paul Millsap’s contract is up, and he’s an unrestricted free agent. Al Horford is under contract for next season. I’m not sure who’s the better player, but I know that the Hawks can let Millsap walk, slide Horford down to the four where his rebounding isn’t as important, and use the money that would’ve gone to Millsap to grab a true center.

In an offseason where the Hawks (if they let Millsap go) could have quite a bit of cap space to hand out a max deal and really good centers like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe are all available, why not go for one of them?

Atlanta is a very desirable location for potential free agent centers: the Hawks have the reigning Coach of the Year, multiple All-Stars left even if Millsap leaves, the Hawks just won 60 games, and best of all they have the money to satisfy any of the names I listed above.

Plus, I believe Al Horford and the Atlanta Hawks would truly be a lot better with one of those actual centers on the floor and Horford over at the power forward position, and not just because of his rebounding. Horford doesn’t really shoot like a center does.

Horford takes a whopping 50 percent of his shots from farther than ten feet from the basket. No wonder he doesn’t grab many boards–he’s too far from the rim most of the time to get to them! Tyson Chandler, a rebounding machine who averaged 11.5 rebounds and 3.9 offensive boards per game, takes over 80 percent of his shots from within three feet of the rim.

That’s not necessarily a knock on Horford; there’s nothing wrong with being a proficient shooter, and Horford definitely is that. He’s actually a better shooter on long twos (49.4 percent from 16 feet until the arc) than he is on mid-range shots (40.8 percent from three to ten feet, 45.8 percent from ten to 16 feet).

But it is a knock on his ability to play center. Adding a true center like Chandler (who seems like an ideal fit for the Hawks), Hibbert, Jordan or ideally Gasol would change the Hawks offense in noticeable, positive ways. Atlanta wouldn’t shed possessions on an inability to rebound, and Horford would be free to take as many long jumpers as his heart desires.

As far-fetched as it seems, it’s not out of the question that Atlanta is actually better next season than it was this year. Maybe it won’t be reflected in their win total–60 wins is a remarkable feat, regardless of conference–but when it matters most in the playoffs, going big would have big time results for the Hawks.

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