With the New York Knicks’ miserable 2014-15 campaign firmly in the rear view mirror, and NBA draft workouts in full swing, all eyes are locked on what the team will decide to do with their No. 4 pick.
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They could of course trade the pick and move down in the draft. This has turned into somewhat of a legitimate possibility after recent reports that the Knicks are highly interested in Murray State point guard Cameron Payne.
Payne’s stock has risen considerably in draft boards for good reason. Scouts largely consider him a traditional point guard, something that you could argue other point guards in the lottery are not. He also put together a tremendous sophomore season – he was one of only three players in the nation to notch at least 20 points and five assists per game.
While bizarre on the surface, if the Knicks are able to get Payne while nabbing another pick or asset, it could turn out to be a shrewd coup. In addition to the Knicks, Payne has a scheduled workout with the Lakers as well.
If the Knicks keep the fourth pick, they will obviously have an array of options at their disposal as this draft shapes up to be extremely thick with talent at the top. Highly touted guards Emmanuel Mudiay and D’Angelo Russell – both Knick targets – could be available when the team is on the clock, as could Justise Winslow, the versatile Duke forward whom will be of keen interest to the team.
Winslow is arguably one of the more complete players in the draft. At small forward, he would be playing the same position as Carmelo Anthony. It may seem wasteful to take Winslow when coach Derek Fisher has shown the preference to play Anthony at small forward. But with a roster riddled with so many holes, the Knicks are better served taking the best available player.
On Monday, the Knicks had an up close look at Winslow during a scheduled workout at the team’s training facility. Winslow did more than enough to solidify their growing interest in him. The Knicks have needs that no single player will fill. Winslow comes close to doing a little bit of everything though. Whether the Knicks decide to take him depend on various factors.
The intangibles that he could provide the team are clear:
THE CASE FOR
Defensive Versatility: At Duke, he was often the guy assigned to lockdown the opponent’s best offensive player. He is an extremely disciplined defender, a rarity among players his age. While seldom lost on defense, he slides past screens and uses supreme lateral quickness to close off angles. It is commonplace to find him contesting shots while maintaining balance, preventing unnecessary fouls. With a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Winslow is a disruption on defense, frustrating defenders looking for clear blow-bys, and has consistently shown to be unafraid of taking charges.
Penetration & Slashing: Winslow is an elite penetrator, often jabbing defenders out of position using astute footwork. His upper body strength typically overwhelms the average defender, allowing him to reach the rim almost at will. Scouts have pinned him with comparisons to James Harden, most likely because both are lefties with exceptional slashing ability. Harden is much more ball dominant than Winslow and controls more of his team’s offensive flow. Harden is also a bit more rangy at this point: he shoots a combined 36.7% on three point field goals from the left wing, center, and right wing. Winslow leans extremely heavily on his left side, shooting a higher volume, and with higher accuracy from that side of the three-point line, according to Shot Analytics.
Athleticism: From a sheer physical standpoint, at 6-6 and a brick at 225 pounds, Winslow is arguably the most NBA ready prospect in the draft. Considering the Knicks immediate need for help, Winslow’s adjusted production per 40 minutes suggest he fits the bill exactly. His elite leaping ability was on regular display at Duke, especially on driving plays and rebounds. Pulling down 6.5 rebounds per-game was second most by a freshman in the ACC. He also became just Coach K’s second player 6-foor-6 or under to average at least six boards per game. The timing of his shot blocking is also noteworthy, particularly in transition where he has a propensity to give chase.
Reflects Per 40 Minutes. Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Per 40 Minutes.
THE CASE AGAINST
Passing: Winslow is an adequate distributor, but can sometimes force the issue by attempting to squeeze passes in heavy traffic where the defense can quickly close in. Where a simple pass is effective, he misses his target by opting for skip passes or leaving his feet before deciding on a pass. This is particularly significant in the Knicks triangle offense where the predicate is laid on crisp post-entry passes.
Shooting: Winslow was actually an above-average shooter in his sole collegiate season, as evidenced by his nearly 49 percent shooting from the field. What is noticeably lacking is his mid-range game. Winslow is extremely predictable in his three-point game, favoring the left wing. He also gets the majority of his baskets in the paint, leaving his in-between game virtually non-existent, according to Point After.
Small Forward Clog: Coach Fisher prefers to play Anthony at small forward. Depending on how the Knicks decide to play Cleanthony Early, it appears the Knicks have sufficient depth at the small forward position. In this scenario, the team would ideally roll out a lineup where Winslow is either at shooting guard or Anthony slides to power forward. Playing behind Anthony would seem counter-intuitive to his NBA growth curve, especially for someone drafted fourth overall.
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THE CONCLUSION
Given Winslow’s ability to excel at seemingly everything the Knicks need, they face a clear dilemma. Knowing where to put Winslow in the lineup in order for him to thrive will be at least worth a pause. Unless the team decides to move Anthony back to power forward, or is able to secure a second draft pick, it seems inefficient to take Winslow.
Should the Knicks be convinced Winslow is a metamorphic prospect, all of this becomes moot. That of course would mean potentially passing on Russell, Mudiay, or Willie Cauley-Stein – all of whom play positions the Knicks desperately need help with.
Ideally, the Knicks would use Winslow to relieve the load on Anthony, using him to defend post players the way the Golden State Warriors use Draymond Green on that end. Offensively, Winslow’s penetration should provide plenty of kick-out opportunities, provided the Knicks fill out the roster with capable shooters.
As arguably the most well rounded prospect in the country, Winslow will undoubtedly make passing on him arduous. Someone will be happy with Winslow, whether that team is the Knicks is still anyone’s guess.
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