2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Eastern Conference Finals

Penetration = Important

It’s pretty amusing how much Teague has been overlooked in the playoffs, mainly because he’s done it to himself. For the third year in a row, he’s struggled to even break the 40% mark from the field, and he’s coughing up 3.3 turnovers per 36 minutes.

Yet, it was the dribble penetration of Teague that lifted Atlanta into the conference finals in a hostile environment of the Verizon Center. His two sensational plays inside the paint (fooling two Washington defenders on the first, and then making an acrobatic layup for the second) kept the Hawks ahead in the final minutes. They’re playing a Game 7 on Monday if it wasn’t for his overdrive mode he kicked in.

Against Cleveland, the writing is already on the wall. Teague knows exactly what he has to do, and what to prevent, if he chooses to make a name for himself against the East’s superstar juggernaut. In the regular season meetings (he played in three), there weren’t many heart-stopping performances by Teague.

When Teague did penetrate to the rim, turnovers often accompanied. His assist-to-turnover ratio for the three games was a sub-par 1.55, compared to Kyrie Irving’s 1.85. Irving was the far better point guard, shooting nearly 50% from the field and causing havoc trying to buckle down on defense. Typically, Irving is known as a bad defender at the point guard position — mainly due to his size, and desire to save energy for his scoring — but he wasn’t a pushover while guarding Atlanta’s backcourt.

The alarming part of Teague’s game, however, is that he’s not attacking the rim in the playoffs like we’ve known him to. Take Game 6 vs. Washington out of the equation, because he snapped back to his original self in the final minutes. But, his free throw rate has dropped from a regular season rate of .360 to his low playoff rate of .288 — the lowest it’s been in three years.

Irving, by the same standard, has flipped it up a few notches.  His regular season free throw rate was a mediocre .296, and it’s already jumped 15.5% up to .451. Having your point guard (who is most likely your best free throw shooter anyway) get to the line more times during the playoffs is a positive. Atlanta needs to adjust, and Teague has to take more opportunities to slash the Cleveland defense.

It’s really uncalled for that Teague played 91 total minutes vs. Cleveland this year, and only got to the line 12 times.

Attacking via paint penetration will also help both teams play to their strengths. In the playoffs, both of these units have used the same mentality:  3-point shooting will either crown us, or kill us:

Phil Jackson can sit back and feel pretty embarrassed about his recent comments, in which he sarcastically posed the idea that 3-point reliant teams can’t use it to succeed in the playoffs. Both of these conference finals matchups equal music to the ears of analytic-lovers. 3-pointers have already taken over the league, held it hostage, and continue to clobber those teams that strongly disagree.

It’s an easy concept — Atlanta and Cleveland both have to penetrate to the rim more in this series than any other. Budenholzer is aware of how suspect Cleveland’s defense has been since training camp, and he knows that if they get into the heart of the defense with his motion offense, things will open up. Led by LeBron or not, the Cavs are prone to make huge mistakes with help defense, and rotating at the right time.

If Atlanta doesn’t take advantage of Cleveland’s lack of defensive depth, they shouldn’t be able to call themselves the number one seed. Indiana didn’t have the shooting weapons last year that Atlanta can utilize. In addition, the Miami team from one year ago was much healthier than Cleveland is at this point. LeBron was pushed to six games last year, and nothing less than seven should be acceptable for the versatile Hawks … even if it is their first appearance here.

Both teams have completely played to the tune of “3-pointers and layups” during these playoffs, although Cleveland is still taking over 20% over their field goals from mid-range:

Together, both conference finals are going to be predicated on getting to the rim, and superstars finding their role players for open 3-pointers. In Golden State’s case, we know Curry and Thompson can just run the show and truly don’t need to attack first. In Atlanta’s case, though, everyone turns into a threat because they have no “go-to guy.”

The fact that homecourt matters so much once you get into the later stages of the postseason is a bit scary for the Cavaliers. Sure, LeBron didn’t need homecourt to put the knife through Indiana last year, or Boston back in 2012 (Game 6!).

But, this is a much different contraption he’s against in 2015. Atlanta has been on the rise, and may have had their first try at LeBron last season if Horford didn’t miss 75% of the year with a pectoral injury. 60 wins was sort of shocking for Coach Bud to achieve, given his short tenure in Atlanta, but it wasn’t surprising given the wide level of talent he has on the roster.

The Hawks are 8-4 in the postseason, while everyone makes it sound like they’re just a .500 team now. A couple of home losses on the national TV spotlight will do that to you, though.

It just can’t be forgotten how diverse, yet stabilized Atlanta has played for majority of the year. The season-long sample size wins me over every time, instead of a couple struggles to open a playoff series. Winning three straight against a hungry Wizards team was no joke.

They just can’t afford to let Cleveland off the hook, like Chicago did. The Bulls had LeBron by the neck, and gently let him go for some odd reason. The execution was there.

Atlanta is too smart offensively to repeat Chicago’s mistake.

Pick:  Hawks in 7

Next: Golden State Warriors: Western Conference Finals Preview

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