2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Eastern Conference Finals
By Shane Young
The Most Critical Player
Not only is Al Horford the most significant player in this series (excluding the man that owns the East Finals), but he’s at a pivotal point of his career. Horford has one more season under contract with Atlanta, until he hits the unrestricted market in summer 2016. Earning $12 million annually, he’s certainly providing his team with everything (and more!) that he’s paid for.
Of all 200+ players that appeared in the playoffs this year, only one of them has averaged 15 points, 10 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 4 assists during his team’s run. It’s Al Horford, and he’s kept it together for 12 total games — which knocks out players such as Anthony Davis and LaMarcus Aldridge who were eliminated early.
Seriously, there’s really no arguing that Horford is making an extreme push for “best center in the game,” and his offensive art truly shines a big cloud over Dwight Howard — someone without a innovative offense. Horford’s 81.3% foul shooting is just a testament to always improving when the “important” games arrive, since it’s clearly a rise from his 75.9% in the regular season. It’s quite comical that the Hack-a-Shaq strategy has only been a problem out West. You can’t do it to Atlanta.
Similar to LeBron, Horford only played in three of the four meetings between Atlanta and Cleveland this year. Another shared trait is that, like LeBron, he blistered the opposition while on the floor. Horford shot 16-of-20 from within the free throw line (15-feet) and 7-of-16 from beyond. With a sky-high effective field goal percentage, and remarkable defense to go along with it, he was very under appreciated for the spark he supplied.
There is one area Horford will need to mark on the whiteboard for emphasis. In this series, he’s battling in the frontcourt with a top two or three offensive rebounder in the league, Tristan Thompson.
Thompson’s offensive rebounding percentage has been absurd throughout the first two rounds, tallying a 14.6% rating — meaning he grabs 14.6% of the available offensive boards while on the floor. Out of all remaining players, he’s easily the highest.
Horford is still a great rebounder, but he only grabbed five boards per game against Cleveland in the regular season series. Those matchups were against different personnel (before and after the Mozgov trade and Varejao injury) so perhaps we’re in store for a more dominant Atlanta behemoth.
During Games 5 and 6 of the semi-finals (vs. Washington), Horford’s ability to stop anything close to the restricted area is what anchored them to where they are today. He rejected a total of seven shots in those two games, and it was the only way Atlanta was able to win despite combining for 40 turnovers in Games 5 and 6.
In the one game where Cleveland actually had their current roster (after trades), Horford had a smooth offensive game against the Cavaliers’ new additions. It was on March 6, and Horford shot 7-of-12 from the field in 34 minutes. He’s not someone that gets up an abundance of shots for being so dominant — his average shot attempts per game this year was the lowest it’s been 2011.
But, he sure played circles around Tristan Thompson:
If you’re Thompson, you can’t drop back too much on a pick-and-roll drive, because one of the best mid-range shooting big men is pulling up at 16 feet. Schroder notices Thompson back-peddling toward the rim, and leaves the pass for Horford.
Horford doesn’t even have to fully come up to set the screen for Schroder or Teague … Thompson still attacks the ball handler hard and can’t recover:
Above, you can see that Thompson makes a strong effort to cut off Schroder’s left drive, but it proves to be a costly mistake. With Horford’s high release, it’s not plausible for Thompson to be able to get back to him quick enough on the pick-and-pop.
That forces LeBron to make a decision; either rotating over to make Horford pass up the open jumper, stay at home on Carroll (wing), or do exactly what he did — finding the happy medium and “showing” a little help:
The problem with leaving Carroll, however, is that he’s been a sure-fire 3-point shooter this season. Taking 4.8 attempts per game from the outside during the playoffs, Carroll is making 44% of his looks. He’s been better than Korver from the outside in the postseason, although he’s only taken half of the triples Korver has jacked. If Horford did decide to hit Carroll with a pass on the open wing, Iman Shumpert may have been forced to help — freeing up Korver.
When Atlanta utilizes this lineup and keeps the floor spread with their two deadly wings, Horford finds his job to be incredibly easier.
The big man’s celebration at the end of Game 6 vs. Washington said it all. He’s tired of being hampered by injuries and not having a chance to advance deep into the playoffs with this team.
His former Florida teammate has already had countless cracks at LeBron when it matters the most. We’re about to see if Horford can finish the business on his very first try.
Next: The Biggest Key