2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Eastern Conference Finals

Stopping a King on his Quest

Throughout the regular season series, Atlanta utilized multiple defenders on LeBron, trying different experiments for what could be the ideal matchup later down the road. Since the Hawks are the opposite of a one-on-one heavy team, they don’t particularly like the isolation-filled style Cleveland enforces.

Therefore, it’s usually a lot easier for these kind of teams to slow down a superstar (LeBron) and give him trouble. They specialize in it.  The Spurs have the same blueprint and success, using multiple guys on LeBron, such as Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and even Boris Diaw.

Atlanta is no different from San Antonio in that regard, since they’ve had successful minutes with Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, and perimeter anchor DeMarre Carroll trying their luck on James. Using the 6’5″ Bazemore — who is also 50 pounds under LeBron — was probably a stretch, but his lightning quick hands and feet on defense make him a pest against anyone.

Really early in the year (when Cleveland had Dion Waiters, Anderson Varejao, and Shawn Marion playing big minutes), the Cavaliers liked to experiment with huge lineups. It would help create a mismatch on LeBron, with the smaller Bazemore stuck trying to hold his own in the paint.

Needless to say, LeBron’s overpowering body was too much for even the craftiest guys:

Although Bazemore is small enough to get around James and disrupt quick passing lanes, he’s no match for bigger small forwards near the block. Cleveland doesn’t have Varejao in its arsenal for this series, but their perimeter players are more than capable of finding LeBron in these situations if Bazemore is a primary defender on him.

When Bazemore has the assignment of one-on-one defense against James on the perimeter, more often than not LeBron would pull up over him from long distance. For the Cavaliers to be fully effective and keep up with Atlanta’s offensive punch, he’ll have to put his head down and attack, not turn into a jump-shooter against smaller opponents.

LeBron only took 11 triples in the three regular season meetings, hitting 45.5% of them. However, he was much better while getting toward the rim, shooting 17-of-25 from within 8 feet (68% — which would be ridiculous if he abandons that style).

It’s been pretty obvious through the laws of science:  A normal human can’t stop an 18-ton sized truck coming at them 60 miles per hour.  With that in mind, every player on Atlanta is equivalent to the normal humans, and LeBron in transition is something horrifying. Even with Sefolosha on him this season, he continued to make the aggressive plays only LeBron can make. Nobody was big or brave enough to check him in semi-transition:

Cleveland didn’t necessarily get out on the break a lot against Atlanta in their four meetings, but it was particularly dangerous when LeBron made up his mind to. You have to pick him up early if you’re Atlanta, and give your defense time to get set against him. Any team that’s ever dethroned LeBron knows, you’re better off forcing him into halfcourt mistakes and burning the shot clock rather than letting him dictate the pace.

In the halfcourt sets, I’m not sure people realize how much Atlanta is going to miss Sefolosha. Not only was he Atlanta’s best defender off the bench, but he also ranked 4th of all small forwards in defensive real plus-minus this season (in 52 games), behind only Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kawhi Leonard, and Tony Allen.

While Sefolosha did slip up occasionally in transition, there was no better match for a halfcourt defender against LeBron.  He rattled him, tried like hell to deny James the ball and burn the clock, and then stuck with him on the perimeter:

Yes, the Hawks will miss this … severely. Ridiculous police brutality case, huh?  Injuries ruin series and playoff runs nearly every time. But luckily, Atlanta isn’t left completely empty with Sefolosha nursing his broken leg.

Having DeMarre Carroll as your primary “3-and-D” guy to challenge LeBron on both ends is a luxury, since Carroll has been increasing his skill each year. He just posted career highs in defensive win shares and PER this season, and seems to have the proper awareness to embrace the challenge.

Intense defensive pressure in many different scenarios is what Carroll is about to bring, and just the use of great fundamentals has been a blessing to watch this year:

In the defensive possession above, notice how Carroll makes a quick determination to beat LeBron to his spot. He’s aware, after playing him multiple times, that he’s heading toward the baseline for a quick post-up. Carroll’s swift movements with his feet make it almost impossible for LeBron to gain any position. He knows he could try to attack right or left, but Carroll doesn’t budge.

Keep an eye on Carroll’s feet, even after LeBron resets and gets the pass back from Love — they’re usually moving, as Carroll is on his toes anticipating his guy’s next move. In this case, he does a tremendous job of cutting off LeBron’s right-handed drive, and forces James to spin back toward the outside. It’s an outstanding defensive stop, and it accomplishes something else, too.  Stopping James on the baseline allows time for Al Horford to close out greatly on LeBron’s turnaround jumper. He literally had no room to operate once Horford took two steps in his direction, being double-teamed.

That’s one formula to cause contested shots, and even turnovers against Cleveland.

When LeBron isn’t slowing the pace and decides to drive through the first line of Atlanta’s defense, there’s another issue standing in his way. It’s a sharp, skilled center who’s been protecting the rim and paint effectively in the playoffs:

As crazy as it may seem, Horford is the best center LeBron has faced throughout these five straight East Finals trips. He’s head and shoulders above Hibbert in terms of having an overall, balanced game, and the offensive comparisons between Horford and Noah would be laughable. Since this season ended, anyone watching Atlanta consistently should be able to say that if they were forced to pick a center to win one game, Horford would be the second choice behind DeMarcus Cousins.

While most of Horford’s impressive play comes from his shooting and post capabilities, it’s his interior defense that’s been stifling in the playoffs. In the play above, Horford shows one of the best ways for a big guy to help contain the paint on LeBron drives. Instead of completely dropping back toward the restricted area and waiting for James to pass through the first wall of defenders, he’s stepping up to the mid-range area:

When LeBron gets around the screen set by Kevin Love, though, Horford uses insane mobility for his size … and stays with James the entire way. It allows for the best contest at the rim you can find, and Horford’s length causes a miss:

There’s not many young, versatile, two-way centers in the game that compare to Horford. He could be a huge nightmare for any Cleveland penetration in this series. It’s more likely than not.

Even when it’s not LeBron beginning the play, Atlanta has been exquisite with their paint defense. They try their hardest not to let anything unfold out of 1-5 pick-and-rolls (Irving and Thompson below) and guys are always on the move defensively:

When Thompson comes to set the initial screen for Irving, his defender (Pero Antic) shows a quick, subtle hedge on the point guard and then quickly recovers back on Thompson for the next pick-and-roll. Antic is literally moving the entire time, hedging both screen-rolls and then making sure Thompson can’t catch any pass as the roll-man.

Between Antic’s defensive movement and Bazemore’s terrific “I’m going to show a little help on Thompson before getting back on Iman Shumpert,” Atlanta forces the Cavaliers to burn 12 precious seconds of the shot clock. Before you know it, Cleveland has their power forward holding the ball on the 3-point line with just six seconds left. Hint:  That’s great for a defense.

LeBron has to flare up to the perimeter to get the ball, and he’s left with only four seconds to make a play. Being flawless for the whole possession, Atlanta is then able to pack the paint completely and force LeBron into something extremely difficult:

James doesn’t convert on the drive, and Atlanta connects on their own pick-and-pop when they march it up the floor. Defensive structure like this will haunt Cleveland when they come to Phillips Arena, unless they act quickly and find a way to hit their roll men.

With this being the East Finals and every game being much closer than the regular season series, you can expect many possessions to come down to LeBron having to make a “superstar” play. That’s what murdered Indiana in the last two East Finals — at times where it looked like the Pacers couldn’t play any better defense because they were so smothering … James still ripped their hearts out with a tough play.

You can definitely see that being on the table for this series, too, as Atlanta will be crisp in their rotations toward Cleveland’s 3-point shooters. Yet, it will be up to someone to bail the Cavaliers out. We know the answer:

Here, you really can’t ask for better closeouts and awareness if you’re coach Mike Budenholzer.  Mike Scott is quick to find Dellavedova in the right corner, Schroder doesn’t let James Jones load up for a shot at the top of the key, and then Korver sticks with the deadly J.R. Smith. LeBron is then left having to make a play over Bazemore and Elton Brand, which comes a bit easy to him.

Although LeBron has great superstar intangibles to finish “broken” possessions, it’s a tall order to ask that from him over and over. If Atlanta adheres to this type of defense when James is on the floor, he’ll be up against the toughest machine he’s faced since the Spurs just one year ago.

Next: Tale of Two Benches