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Fantasy Basketball: James Harden’s Case For No. 1

By Jackson Sanders

Apr 24, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /
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Congratulations, you just were awarded the first pick in your fantasy basketball draft. You can have any player you desire to build your dream roster around. There are former MVPs, studs dripping with upside, and super-human scoring machines staring you right in the face — any can be yours.

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There is really no wrong choice for the first pick when considering the usual suspects. But there may be one that people are underrating.

James Harden just put up a dominant season for all the fantasy basketball owners that drafted him in 2014-15. He finished second on ESPN.com’s Player Rater, which bested his sixth-overall ADP.

The Player Rater isn’t a perfect tool for those in head-to-head category leagues, but it gives us a general idea as to how a player performed in a given time frame. In this instance, it fairly illustrates how great of an option Harden truly is; even at the first pick overall.

James Harden is stuffing the stat sheet like LeBron James. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
James Harden is stuffing the stat sheet like LeBron James. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

James Harden Has It All

The first thing you should look for in a top draft choice in fantasy is the ability to stuff the stat sheet. In 2014-15, Harden was one of the best in this area.

His 27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 7 assists, 2.6 threes, 0.7 blocks, and 1.9 steals help paint a picture of just how dominant Harden was in multiple categories.

LeBron James — long considered the no-brainer No. 1 overall player in fantasy basketball — has a career stat line of 27.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.4 threes, 0.8 blocks, and 1.7 steals. The numbers between James’ averages and Harden’s career year are eerily close, and support just how good Houston’s shooting guard was last season.

Harden is arguably the best scoring option in fantasy basketball, he offers excellent assist numbers as the de facto point guard for the Rockets, and is coming into the peak years of his career at only 25 years old.

He’s the complete package, but there’s one reason that he stands out above the rest in consideration for No. 1 overall.

What do these guys have in common? Top-ten fantasy shooting guard status. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
What do these guys have in common? Top-ten fantasy shooting guard status. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

Positional Scarcity Sets James Harden Apart

Filling up the box score is not the only reason to pick a player first overall; in fact, it’s more of a requirement.

At shooting guard, that attribute is a rarity. Especially at the level that James Harden is able to do it.

Here’s a bit of a deeper look at how his stats measured up overall:

  • Harden’s 2,217 points were the best in the league; Stephen Curry was second with 1,900.
  • Harden scored 5.7 more points per game than the second-ranked SG, Klay Thompson (21.7 ppg).
  • Harden’s 565 total assists ranked him sixth overall in the league, regardless of position (most by a SG).
  • Only Stephen Curry (163) and Chris Paul (156) had more total steals than Harden (154).
  • Harden was far-and-away the man with the most free-throw attempts in the league (824); Russell Westbrook finished second (654).

In that list, the majority of Harden’s competitors were elite-level point guards.

While players like Stephen Curry are eligible at shooting guard in some formats, it can be a real advantage to snag James Harden in formats that don’t have such flexibility. As a shooting guard with a point guard role, his value is inflated due to positional scarcity.

This isn’t to say that the shooting guard pool is completely weak. Klay Thompson can provide excellent scoring and threes. Kyle Korver and J.J. Redick are sharpshooters that can be had deep in drafts. Evan Turner can even provide a poor-man’s replication of Harden’s offerings.

It’s just that nobody can touch what Harden does at the shooting guard position.

It may be tempting to grab an elite point guard early, and simply wait for a shooting guard down the line. It’s a viable strategy assuming the right picks are made in between, but if the goal is to grab as many impact players as possible, pairing Harden with a mid-round pick from the point guard pool is a tempting route to go.

Would you rather have the duo of Harden and Goran Dragic — the tenth point guard on ESPN’s Player Rater — or the duo of Stephen Curry and Joe Johnson (tenth shooting guard on the Player Rater)? The upside game-to-game is certainly in favor of that first group, even considering Dragic’s down season in 2014-15.

The point guard position is deep with playmakers; the shooting guard pool is not. Therein lies a good chunk of Harden’s case for the top selection in fantasy basketball.

In a game in which the elite point guard is considered a top-tier commodity, James Harden deserves consideration for the first overall pick due to his similar offerings at a shallow position.

Next: Five Reasons Jeremy Lin Won't Be Back With The Lakers

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