After Michigan State’s somewhat stunning run to a berth in the 2015 Final Four, many expected the world from the Spartans during the 2015-16 season. Despite losing four-year seniors Travis Trice and Branden Dawson, Tom Izzo’s squad landed very high in most extremely early Top 25s for next season, but much of that had to do with the recruitment of one player.
Caleb Swanigan, a 6-foot-8 center from Fort Wayne, IN shocked most when he decided to join Michigan State over Kentucky, California and Purdue. His presence, with the little inside depth the Spartans had heading into next season, vaunted expectations of Michigan State in a big way, going from a potential top 25 team into some top 10 rankings, including CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish, who had the Spartans at No.8 as of Monday.
A month later, Swanigan has decided to de-commit from the Spartans, changing their fortunes and possibly their expectations as we move into the summer.
Early reports indicate that Swanigan has decided to stay in-state and head to Purdue, adding to the Boilermakers’ already loaded front court that features senior-to-be A.J. Hammons and sophomore-to-be Isaac Haas, two 7-footers that combined to average over 19 points and eight rebounds per game during the 2014-15 season. His additions provides great depth for Purdue and possibly brings expectations a bit higher in the Big Ten.
As for Michigan State, things just got interesting. On Wednesday, Izzo said that he wasn’t worried about Swanigan’s commitment. Swanigan had previously said that he’s “100 percent” committed to the Spartans and Izzo, despite not being able to mention the then-in-coming big man by name, didn’t seem to have an inkling that this would happen. It’s also possible, though, that Izzo wasn’t willing to say whether he thought he’d lose Swanigan or not.
One month after his announced commitment, Swanigan still hadn’t signed his National Letter of Intent, which had some wondering if he was having second thoughts on the matter. As it turns out, he was, and now the Spartans are a man short of what was expected to be a very talented roster heading into next year.
With senior-to-be Denzel Valentine still in the fold, Michigan State already had a do-everything player to take care of the dirty work. A third team All-Big Ten player last season and the team’s best defender, Valentine is expected to be the heart and soul of the Spartans’ attack, being a leader and taking control of games.
Joining him is Tum Tum Lourawls Nairn Jr., a lightening quick point guard with enormous confidence as a freshman last season, and Eron Harris, a transfer from West Virginia who sat out last year due to NCAA transfer rules. These two players, along with Valentine, make up the backcourt for Michigan State, it’s the forwards that were still a bit of a question.
Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling will both be back next year as well. These two combined for just over 12 points and 8.0 rebounds per game during the 2014-15 season, the same stat line Dawson provided on his own that will no longer be available. Though they have earned Izzo’s trust, their production as a combination is incredible sporadic and often lost.
Combined, Costello and Schilling provided 38 points and 30 rebounds through Michigan State’s five NCAA Tournament games, good for just 7.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. At the highest level of college basketball, having your top two big men provide that number isn’t exactly going to get it done, which was part of the Spartans’ downfall in the Final Four.
Swanigan was expected to provide a talented big man who could take over a game in the post, adding another dimension for Michigan State this next year. Without him, it puts more pressure on the veterans to produce at a higher level.
However, though Swanigan is now out of the picture, the Spartans still have Deyonta Davis, a 6-foot-9 forward, coming in. According to 247 Sports, Davis is the 26th overall recruit in the 2015 recruiting class while Swanigan is ranked 18th. In the world of recruiting, there isn’t much variance between the the two rankings, so while Swanigan is the headline player recently (which is mostly due to those who write the headlines) Davis still provides another option in the post for Michigan State.
No matter who steps into the second forward role in place of the departing Dawson, his production will not be easily replaced. That much is certain. One does not simply take a freshmen, no matter what his recruiting ranking is, put him in for a four-year senior starter and expect everything to go swimmingly. It’s going to take a group effort from Costello, Schilling and Davis to make it happen.
Though Michigan State’s preseason ranking may take a bit of a hit, their high expectations stemmed from the fact that Izzo is still coaching and managed to take his rag tag group of players to the Final Four last season. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding their team, as with most teams, but the Spartans losing Swanigan shouldn’t diminish what they’ve got coming back.
Michigan State may have suffered a blow with this latest recruiting news, but it certainly won’t take away what they already have. Swanigan was an example of the rich getting rich. Take away a nice hunk of change and the rich are still rich.
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