NCAA: Three-Point Shooting Key For North Carolina’s Title Aspirations
By Nathan Giese
North Carolina has the makings of a potential national championship team, thanks in no small part to the late signing of former VCU recruit Kenny Williams III, adding him to an already talented roster.
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Many were surprised when J.P. Tokoto announced his decision to enter the NBA Draft rather than return to school for his senior year. A talented wing player, Tokoto’s best asset to the Tar Heels was his athleticism and defense. Something he lacked, however, was three-point shooting. Though he shot 37 percent from downtown, he took just 32 attempts from deep last season.
In fact, perhaps the biggest flaw of the 2014-15 Sweet 16 squad was perimeter shooting. As a team, UNC shot 35 percent from downtown and four individual players shot better than that same percentage from three. Of those four players, only Marcus Paige took more than 100 threes on the season.
Paige attempted 238 threes, accounting for 57 percent of his total shot attempts. The other three players (Tokoto, Nate Britt and Joel Berry) combined for 151 attempts from three.
Overall, North Carolina had a pretty successful season, though suffered through peaks and valleys that tormented Tar Heel nation during the 2013-14 season. Starting the year off with a 6-3 record, including losses to Butler (neutral), Kentucky (road) and Iowa (home), UNC won 10 of their next 11 games.
Then came the valley, going 2-4 in their next six before finishing the year with seven wins in their final 10 games.
As a team, the Tar Heels went as Paige led them. Suffering through a number of injuries throughout the year, Paige was sometimes inconsistent with his performance, having to force the action rather than play through it. He did, however, lead the team in points (14.1), assists (4.3) and steals (1.7), earning himself third team All-ACC honors.
Joining Paige in that category of All-ACC was Brice Johnson, who showed a willingness to take over games when needed, going for 20 points or more in five games this season and compiling eight double-doubles.
Johnson, along with a much slimmer and more agile Kennedy Meeks, provided the Tar Heels with a dynamic and physical 1-2 punch in the post, something that few teams in the country were able to contain.
Justin Jackson came on strong late in the season, proving why he was inserted into the starting lineup. Jackson had 11 double digit scoring outings in UNC’s final 12 games of the season after having 11 in the first 26 games.
His scoring increased when his three-point shooting, something that plagued him early in the year. Jackson shot 50 percent or better from three in eight games in those final 12, having five such games in those first 26.
Though he did still have a few games of rough shooting from deep (0-for-7 in loss to Notre Dame in ACC tournament championship game), his added shooting touch opened up the floor for the rest of his teammates.
On paper, North Carolina’s three-point shooting wasn’t terrible, but it could certainly be better. The Tar Heels ranked 107th in the country in three-point shooting and third in the ACC during conference play (37 percent), but that number jumped up to 41 percent in postseason play, something that carried them to the Sweet 16 and came one Sam Dekker Hail Mary, nail-in-the-coffin three away from an appearance in the Elite Eight.
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Keeping It Heel
Now, UNC has few excuses.
Tokoto’s absence will be missed from a defensive perspective, but his lack of outside shooting and a lack of willingness to shoot from the outside hindered Carolina’s offensive strategy. Teams doubled Paige on pick-and-rolls, forcing him into difficult shots, packed it in the paint and dared other Tar Heels to beat them with jumpers.
Though there’s still the small-yet-expected-to-be-huge matter of NCAA sanctions stemming from the academic scandals that have been well publicized looming, the addition of Williams, a well-rounded three-point shooter, fills a need for for North Carolina and provides depth.
A potential starting lineup of Paige, Nate Britt, Jackson, Johnson and Meeks with key reserves in Williams, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry II, Isaiah Hicks and, potentially, incoming freshman Luke Maye adds another dimension Roy Williams has been searching for since his 2011-12 team all went to the NBA after their final run at the Final Four came up one game short.
With just about all the recruiting quieted down and nothing but transfers waiting to land a new home, North Carolina has landed themselves in familiar territory.
Projected as the top team heading into the 2015-16 team with a veteran lineup (potential starting lineup including two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore), this upcoming Tar Heels squad has a similar feel to that 2011-12 crew.
While the field is wide open, and we’re not really sure when or if the NCAA will make a decision, North Carolina has all the tools to be a top player in college basketball next season and will be expected to do great things.
Added three-point shooting and a veteran lineup have UNC in the right position, it’s just a matter of proving they deserve the praise.
Next: NCAA: California's Vast Talent Could Lead Them To Elite Status
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