Mike Conley: The Grizzlies’ Real MVP

Going into the postseason, there were legitimate concerns surrounding the Memphis Grizzlies and their horrible end to the 2014-15 season.

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After taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in a thrilling first-round series last year — before falling to OKC at the Chesapeake Arena during the seventh and deciding contest — Memphis charged into this season looking to earn home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

In fact, going into the All-Star break, the Grizzlies were sitting pretty at 39-14 — good for the second-best record in the Western Conference. Moreover, they were flirting with the accomplishment of finishing the season within the top 100 in, both offensive (11th in the league) and defensive efficiency (seventh in the league), per NBA.com.

But since the trade deadline, it has been a struggle for Memphis, clawing their way to finish line with a 16-13 record over their last 29 contests. During the stretch, their offensive rating plummeted by nearly four points per 100 possessions, down to 100.2, which ranked a regressive 22nd in the association.

When analyzing their downfall, one correlation becomes abundantly clear: when Mike Conley is playing his best ball, the Grizzlies are usually playing their best ball.

Prior to the All-Star break, Conley averaged a highly-respectable 16.9 points and 5.3 assists per game on 56.8 percent TS% (true shooting percentage) and an individual offensive rating of 110.

However, Conley would suffer a wrist injury in mid-January, and a nagging right foot sprain in early March thereafter, which derailed his — and Memphis’ — season down the stretch. Explicitly, after their elongated break, Conley’s scoring dropped to 13.4 points per game and scored at a banal 53.2 percent TS% and an individual offensive rating of just 104.

Consequently, the Grizzlies had to limp into the playoffs as the fifth seed — but did possess the better record and home-court advantage over the Northwest Division champions, the Portland Trail Blazers.

Since the start of the series, though, Conley has been a reinvigorated man; playing courageously through his sore foot, and spearheading Memphis’ dismantling of Rip City. Even with both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol shooting horrendously from the field, the Grizzlies were still able to earn a commanding 3-0 lead.

But disaster struck once again during game 3 when Conley suffered multiple facial fractures due to an inadvertent elbow.

Not surprisingly, the Grizzlies’ offense went through several periods of stagnant dry spells en route to their Game 4 loss to the desperate Blazers. Additionally, without the pestering on-ball and heady pick-and-roll defense of Conley, Damian Lillard was finally able to shake loose during the game, pouring in a series-high 32 points.

In fact, going into game 4, Lillard had shot just 6-of-19 from the field — including 1-of-9 from beyond the arc — when guarded primarily by Conley, per NBA.com’s SportVU Data.

But with the Indianapolis native sidelined, Portland’s resident lead guard would proceed to go off, making five out of his eight shot attempts when guarded by Nick Calathes, and got himself going by earning 10 points off of hard charging drives.

More alarmingly, Lillard was freed to pick the Grizzlies apart with his pick-and-roll play, bending Memphis’ D to a tune of 1.34 PPP (points per possession) in the 40 screen-and-rolls the Blazers ran with Lillard acting as the ballhandler on Monday night.

The on/off court impact of Conley has been jaw-dropping thus far in the postseason. Most notably, Memphis’ offense absolutely falls off a cliff when the former Ohio State Buckeye is out of the game — scoring 10.9 points less per 100 possessions when someone other than Conley is orchestrating their attack, per Basketball-Reference.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/28/2015.

Overall, the Grizzlies are a plus-22.2 in net rating when Conley is in the game; conversely, they are just a plus-2.0 when he is on the bench.

While the Blazers barely squeaked out a victory over the Conley-less Grizzlies — driven in large by a couple of questionable late game calls no less — and Memphis appears to be poised to close the series out in five or six even without the services of their underappreciated floor general, the potential absence of Conley will surely rear its ugly head during the next round when they face the Golden State Warriors and the most lethal point guard in the game, Stephen Curry.

Here is to hoping Mike Conley can channel his inner Russell Westbrook and return in time for the start of the second round. If not, things may once again take a turn for the worse for the Home of the Blues.

Next: 5 Likely First Time NBA All-Stars Next Season

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