Indiana Pacers: No Reason to Upgrade at Point Guard

The same assertions have been made for years.  “With the current roster, the Indiana Pacers can’t become an elite team with George Hill at point guard. The ball movement, creativity, and offensive flow will never thrive as long as Hill is their floor general.”

These are the same people that actively campaign for Pacers’ President Larry Bird to offer Rajon Rondo a contract this summer. They’re the same people who believe Rondo’s play-making acuity will overcome all of his negatives … and there sure are a lot of them.

First, it’s important to note:  Indiana isn’t even thinking about this possibility, nor do they have the salary availability to bring a greedy free agent in this summer. Trades would have to be constructed. The only intent is to illuminate how splendid of a season Hill had this year, while only shedding light on Rondo’s tainted reputation.

There’s been too many “The Pacers could use a pass-first player, such as Rondo, to help the offense” ideas lately. It needs to stop.

Between the way Rondo defends — no, his perimeter defense isn’t great and somehow the popular belief is the opposite — and the way his shooting capacity allows teams to sag off him, the disasters he brings will always outweigh the positives.

George Hill wasn’t the second coming of Steve Nash or Chris Paul this season, but he sure was marvelous for the Pacers’ standards. In his seventh year, with less than 500 career games under his belt, Hill finished the 2014-15 campaign with his most satisfying performance. It was cut ridiculously short because of nagging injuries, which only allowed Hill to play 52 percent of the 82-game schedule. He finally stayed away from the injury list toward the end of the year, not missing any games after Jan. 21.

While he played under a Hall-of-Fame coach and perfectly structured offense in San Antonio from 2008-2011, Hill’s progression this season with Indiana has been more impressive. It was rather easy for Hill to step in as a role player for Gregg Popovich than for him to succeed as a full-time starter for Frank Vogel. Instead of having Tony Parker as the main ball-handler and playing off him, Hill had to take over the important task of controlling an offense.

It didn’t become easier for Hill when everyone realized Roy Hibbert didn’t have great hands, footwork, or finishing ability. The task became more challenging when Indiana was forced to live without a strong bench.  When Hill truly began to explode into own (2012-13), Vogel didn’t have many bench threats to rely on within his rotation. In fact, the Pacers’ second unit ranked 29th overall in scoring that season, and dead last in field goal percentage. Hill played his career-high in minutes during 2012-13, which shined a spotlight on his name for the Pacers’ future.

After a disturbing finish to the 2014 playoffs, it was evident that Hill needed to refurbish his offense. There were too many stretches during the 2014 East Finals vs. Miami where Hill lost all sense of how to score. 27 of his 53 field goal attempts in that series were 3-pointers, showing that he really couldn’t diversify his skills. Since they didn’t have the personnel to run the break effectively at a high pace, Indiana needed a point guard to guide them in halfcourt sets. Hill, however, was better off playing off the ball and playing a catch-and-shoot role.

Last offseason, he dedicated a significant amount of hours in the gym. Hill’s first goal was to bulk up and become a stronger guard, to where he felt nobody could overpower him at his position. Guards are becoming a bit bigger in natural size and height in this era, so he wanted to stand out. His second goal was to improve as a ball-handler, since it was one of his obvious weaknesses during his early Pacer days.

It was the first real summer where Hill became obsessed with improvement. Of course, he would always take a trip down to San Antonio (along with Roy Hibbert) to work with Tim Duncan and brush up on his fundamentals. Except this time, it was all for personal motives. This team was hitting a stonewall in the East, gaining the upper hand in the regular season but never being able to close Miami’s coffin. They weren’t going to do so unless Hill became more of a threat.

Although he did get injured before the regular season, Hill entered training camp a vastly different player. Once he made his debut and started getting comfortable, the offseason revival started showing results.

On a per-36 minute basis, Hill blessed the Pacers with the most you could ask for. Seriously, if you’re asking for more, you must be greedy for an All-NBA point guard:

* It should be noted that this is an arbitrary list, just based on personal choice. I included Irving and Lillard in the mix because they’re regarded as two of the top “scoring point guards.”

Why is Rondo included?  For perspective on how much of a fiasco it would be if Rondo somehow became a part of Indiana’s offense.

After the Pacers’ major roster shakeup this year (gaining sharpshooter C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, while losing Paul George to injury and Lance Stephenson to Charlotte), Vogel watched his group snap out of their shooting woes. They still weren’t Atlanta or Golden State from the outside, but improvement was shown … to much of a surprise.

Indiana jumped from taking 18.8 3-pointers per game in 2013-14 (ranked 25th), to a more prolific 21.2 per game this year (ranked 18th). It was still below average, but the seven-spot leap made it a much more entertaining season for the blue and gold. Hill and Miles combined for 10.9 of those 21.2 attempts, which was over half.

Rondo isn’t going to complement that movement.

In terms of knocking down those long-range attempts, the Pacers were right around the same efficiency this year as they were in 2013-14. They shot 35.2% from deep, but what’s impressive is that they maintained the same efficiency, while taking 198 more triples for the season. With more volume, usually comes a regression in percentage. It didn’t happen for this team, and it was just great to see Hill taking a career-high in 3-point attempts per 36 minutes (5.5).

Another important component of Hill’s improved play has been his ball security. In the comparison to Irving, Lillard, and Rondo, you can see that Hill’s turnovers per 36 are the lowest of the four. To complement his better discipline, Hill also owns the lowest turnover ratio of the bunch. Only 7.8% of Hill’s possessions end in a turnover, as he’s the only one under the 8% mark. In fact, this year was Hill’s career-best in terms of turnover ratio.

Of the four point guards highlighted in the chart, Hill has the second-highest difference in Assist Ratio minus Turnover Ratio, a very crucial measure of how efficient your point guard completes his role on the floor. Hill’s net ratio this season was 17.0, while Lillard only reached 12.6 and Irving managed to only rack up a 10.3 difference.

To nobody’s surprise, Rondo led this specific group with a net ratio of 23.0, because his assist ratio is always topping the league (37.7). It’s for the reason that he’s not a scoring threat himself, so nearly half of his possessions end in an assist. That’s more of a fault than it is a benefit, because the defense is well-aware that he’s not reliable creating his own points.

Although Rondo tops Hill in the net ratio, the biggest eye-opener is that Hill’s turnover ratio is almost half of Rondo’s. While he does get other teammates involved quite often, Rondo has a horrible tendency to cough up the ball (with a turnover ratio of 14.7 this year). Combining the harmful effects he already brings to a lineup with his own shooting, it’s unacceptable to have the worst turnover ratio of any point guard playing 30 minutes per game. It’s Rajon Rondo in a nutshell, for those who still have high hopes of his leadership.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Hill’s season (on a per-36 minute basis since he only played 29.5 minutes on average) was his points per shot attempt production. With the per-36 figures, Hill scored an impressive 1.296 points per shot attempt. It was slightly behind Irving’s 1.319, but ahead of Lillard’s 1.269 and Rondo’s sub-par 0.939. To only take 11.5 shots per 36 minutes and not score a full point per shot isn’t a quality feature for a point guard.

Hill’s impactful season will be camouflaged because of the 38-44 season and absence from the playoffs. It would’ve been under a greater spotlight if Paul George was there for all six months of the season, or if Hill played more than half the year himself. That’s what people don’t realize.

In this league, it’s quite a task to find a point guard that’s lengthy, can use a long wingspan to defend greatly, while also being able to shoot respectably from the perimeter. If you find those qualities in a point guard, consider yourself lucky. But, then they also have to be able to run terrific pick-and-rolls, and not be a turnover machine.

George Hill isn’t a living legend, or even a Pacers’ legend. But he sure fits all of those bills for Frank Vogel and a team trying to steer its way back on the course.

**All statistical support credited to Basketball-Reference**