Big East: What’s The State Of Villanova?

Villanova has won 62 games over the past two years. They’ve done it playing beautiful basketball. They are unselfish, they play hard, and they play with confidence. Villanova has lost eight games over the last two years. Two of these losses have come in the 1st weekend of the NCAA tournament.

More from NBA

They were unselfish, they played hard, and they played with confidence. These are the confusing facts that have led to Villanova fans questioning everything about the program. Where do they go from here? What is the problem? Is this even a problem?

Let’s approach each of these questions one a time.

1. What Is The Problem?

This era of Villanova teams is not extremely athletic. This is a fact. Not one player on this team is expected to be drafted in the first round of the NBA draft at any point. It’s also likely that none will be drafted in the second round. Unlike past Villanova teams with dynamic guards such as Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry, Corey Fischer, and Malik Wayns, this group can not and has not heavily relied on isolations or ball screens to create offense.

As a result, Jay Wright has employed a four-out, one-in motion offense that relies on their ability to swing the ball back and forth to create a close out situation where one of the perimeter players can either shoot a catch-and-shoot three, or get past an out of control defender running at him.

They are not dribbling off ball screens into threes (Randy Foye). They are not getting past their guy 35 feet from the basket and getting all the way to the rim (Kyle Lowry). Quick passes, two dribble max. Get to the free throw line area. Find the next guy. Catch and shoot.

In addition, they have two capable post players who, given the right matchup, can create a double team situation where once again, they can find an open shooter. This offensive strategy makes perfect sense for their talent set and is great to watch in most cases. But how does it go wrong? Quite simply, it can not and has not worked against teams who have the athleticism to simply stay in front of their non-NBA talent.

The opposite effect was happening on the other end. The speed and athleticism of NC State’s guards was too much for Villanova to handle one-on-one. They routinely got to the rim and pulled Villanova’s bigs out of rebounding position, allowing their athletic (there’s a theme here) bigs to crash the offensive boards unimpeded. NC State made this a game about one-on-one matchups instead of a 5-on-5 game on both ends of the floor. And it worked perfectly.

2. Is This A Problem?

In 2012, led by the most heralded recruiting class in Jay Wright’s tenure playing as juniors, Villanova went 13-19. They weren’t unselfish. They didn’t always play hard. They didn’t always play with confidence. In 2013, that group exited via failed NBA careers and transfers, and made way to a far less heralded young team led by freshman Ryan Arcidiacano and sophomores Darrun Hillard and Jayvaughn Pinkston.

They won 20 games in the last year of the old Big East and went to the NCAA tournament. In the following two years, 62 wins followed. Regardless of NCAA tournament outcomes, this group rejuvenated Villanova basketball. The 2015 Big East Tournament championship banner will hang in the Pavilion as a reminder for what this group did. This was not even close to a failure.

Feb 24, 2015; Villanova, PA, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Darrun Hilliard II (4) and forward JayVaughn Pinkston (22) celebrate their win on Senior Night against the Providence Friars at The Pavilion. The Wildcats defeated the Friars, 89-61. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

One true problem does exist however. In 2013 and 2014, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Louisville left the Big East. These teams were routinely stocked with NBA talent and made for an absolutely brutal January and February schedule. In January 2013, Villanova beat two top 5 teams (Louisville and Syracuse) in a five-day span. They have played one team ranked in the top five since.

Despite the matchup problems that were detailed above, Villanova could have won their second round games the past two years. There is a difference between a bad matchup and a bad matchup you are unprepared for. The latter is what Villanova faced the past two years.

Unfortunately, there is no immediate solution. Without the departed Big East powers and their size and athleticism to test Villanova on a weekly basis, there is no way to be adequately prepared for a team like NC State. The new Big East does not prepare a team like Villanova’s current iteration for what it will see in the NCAA Tournament. Second only to the sad departures of Darrun Hillard and Jayvaughn Pinkston, this reality is what has to hurt Villanova fans the most.

3. Where Do They Go From Here?

Eighteen months from now, overachieving 2, 3 and 4-star recruits such as Daniel Ochefu, Ryan Arcidacano & Darrun Hillard will be gone. Entering in the 2015-16 season is the No. 1 rated point guard in the country, Jalen Brunson from Chicago. Entering in the 2016-17 season is 5-star power forward, Omari Spellman from Ohio. Jay Wright has parlayed the success of this group into recruiting at another level. The team and the system will look radically different than it did yesterday.

As Villanova fans found out in 2012, this is a significant gamble. Will the consistent effort and unselfishness combined with increased athleticism solve the problems outlined above? Or will the talent come with egos that not only decrease Villanova’s win total, but decrease how fun they are to root for? Only time will tell. The realization that this team was fatally flawed was tough to swallow. A realization that the program is fatally flawed would be much tougher.

More from Hoops Habit