Where Do Miami Heat Go From Here?
After a topsy-turvy season that included the most injuries that I have ever seen on a roster, the Miami Heat‘s season ended last night in a win against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat were out of the playoff race already before the game began, but were playing for a different sort of “victory.”
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The whole thing seems pretty ironic if you saw the game, because Philadelphia and Miami both played terribly, something you could see just by watching Michael Beasley‘s 41 minutes being played (where he still continued to hoist jump shots like this was the 2014 NBA Finals or something) and Joel Embiid draw up plays for the 76ers team during their timeout.
The Heat started Zoran Dragic, the lesser known Dragic, in place of his brother. And the Heat still couldn’t lose, which was their plan. You see, they were playing for a top-10 protected first round pick that they could retain if they would just lose to Philadelphia. If they didn’t lose, then they ran the risk of losing the pick to, you guessed it, Philadelphia.
But thankfully for the Heat, the Brooklyn Nets beat the Orlando Magic, which means that Miami now has a 91 percent chance of retaining the pick, whereas if Brooklyn would have lost, then those odds would have decreased to 47.9 percent.
The Heat also have a 4 percent chance of a top-three pick, which is the type of thing that can change a franchise, especially one that has as many talented players as the Heat do. Because of the injuries to the team, it is hard to really see what this team could have been, especially with Chris Bosh out there to do damage from the outside.
Before Bosh went out with the injury, he was averaging 21 points per game and shooting nearly 38 percent from three-point range.
If the Heat are able to get a top 10 pick, then they’ll scour the next draft for a potential game-changer. More specifically, they will target someone who can receive the torch that Dwyane Wade is going to be passing on. As difficult as it is to see, Wade does not have much time left. Maybe Miami can pull it together next season for a deep playoff, that remains to be seen.
But Miami has to do what it can to plan for the future, and to do it by the draft.
This next draft board has many top prospects in the top 10. The Heat have the ability to plan for Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell, Justise Winslow, Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Willie Cauley-Stein all going in the top 12 to 15. The ones who fit best are Justise Winslow, who played incredibly well for Duke on the way to the national championship trophy.
Winslow is athletic, can run the passing lanes on the fast break and can play great defense, especially to wing-type players like Kevin Durant and LeBron James. That would be an immense benefit to have.
But I think the steal of the lottery would be Sam Dekker, a player whom I believe the Heat should go after. He is 6-9 and weighs 230 pounds, showcasing an NBA body that will only get stronger. During the NCAA tournament, Dekker averaged 21.7 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. That includes this dagger:
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While he may not be the most physically gifted, that is, in athleticism, but he makes up for it in intangibles and skill. Some of the other players on the draft board have size and athleticism, two things you can’t teach. But they don’t have a lot of skill, which makes it difficult to translate into the NBA.
Consider Kwame Brown, a player who had an insane amount of size and athleticism, only to become a bust in the NBA. How about Michael Olowakandi? For every big man that is chosen in the draft for his size, there are two or three other big men that are chosen that either become bench players or out of the league.
Just as the Heat took a risk in drafting Dwyane Wade in the 2003 draft (being undersized and not really having a specific “position”), they should look into drafting Dekker.
According to NBAdraft.net, Dekker has the capability to be a Gordon Hayward– or possibly a Chandler Parsons-type of player. This is, of course, an estimate, and estimates are sometimes wrong. But I watched him play during the tournament, and can see that he not only has the skill and size, but also the guts to take and make tough shots.
I am not going to say that Dekker reminds me of Kobe Bryant, I am simply going to say that his ability to take and make tough shots reminds of Kobe. Look at this play against Kentucky:
He took over the second half of that game against Kentucky, a team that many said were unbeatable. If the Heat are smart, they’ll nab him with their new potential pick.
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