NBA Awards Watch: Final MVP Pick For 2014-15

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Apr 13, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) and guard Jason Terry (31) looks at a tablet while on the bench during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /

Individual Numbers

The Warriors and Rockets will both play their regular season finales tonight, but one game won’t (and shouldn’t) sway the vote on the last night of the season. At this point, we basically have all the information we need, regardless of where the Rockets finish in the Western Conference standings (more on this in a bit).

Bearing that in mind, here’s a look at the basic numbers for each of our top MVP candidates:

Curry: 79 games, 32.8 MPG, 23.9 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG, .488/.442/.914 shooting, 28.0 PER
Harden: 80 games, 36.9 MPG, 27.5 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG, .440/.375/.866 shooting, 26.8 PER

Based on the raw stat lines, it’s hard to determine who has the edge. Some might be inclined to go with Curry based on his superior shooting percentages and Player Efficiency Rating. Others might feel the extra minutes, scoring and rebounding Harden brings to the table gives him the advantage since his assists aren’t too far off and his shooting percentages are quite good as well.

Like the majority of this MVP discussion, it’s really open to interpretation. Do you value Curry’s ultra efficiency in limited minutes (compared to Harden)? Or do you value Harden being on the floor because his team needs him to be?

Let’s take a look at some other numbers that might give a clearer picture. Curry’s basic statline doesn’t look quite as good because he plays fewer minutes per game (usually because the Dubs have completely blown out their opponent by the fourth quarter). The Per 36 Minutes numbers shed some light on how close these two really are:

Rk	Player	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	TRB	AST	STL	TOV	PTS
1	Stephen Curry	9.0	18.5	3.9	8.9	4.3	4.7	4.7	8.5	2.2	3.4	26.2
2	James Harden	7.9	17.8	2.5	6.7	8.6	9.9	5.5	6.8	1.9	3.8	26.8

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/14/2015.

After a look at some of the advanced statistics, per NBA.com, the balance starts to sway ever so slightly in Curry’s favor. His net rating (16.8) easily trumps Harden’s (5.3). Curry has an effective field goal percentage of 59.4 percent compared to Harden’s 51.5. Curry also has the edge in true shooting percentage, besting the Beard 63.9 percent to 60.4 percent.

That being said, Harden keeps things pretty close in most other categories. His 33.8 assist percentage is a tad shy of Curry’s 35.8 percent, but that’s a pretty darn impressive number for a non-point guard. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Harden has a 12.2 to 11.5 edge in offensive win shares and he leads the league in total win shares with 16.2.

Curry follows up in third at 15.6 total win shares, but that’s impressive considering the gap in minutes between Harden and Chef Curry. Per 48 minutes, Curry averages more win shares (2.89) than Harden (.264).

Curry’s absurd offensive rating of 114.0 ranks fifth in the league. The only four players ahead of him? All members of the Los Angeles Clippers, the league’s top ranked offense. Harden follows up in 44th at 107.5.

As you can see, even in a straight forward statistical comparison, the numbers can be interpreted subjectively. Normally I’d give the slightest of edges to Curry here, since he’s been the most efficient player per possession in the league this season. But Harden actually plays those extra minutes, which makes it hard to give Curry credit for what he might do if he played those extra minutes.

For our first comparison, I’m taking the European route and declaring it a tie.

Advantage: Tie

Next: Team Success