Dirk Nowitzki: Is Dallas Mavericks Star Fading?

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Apr 8, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) celebrates his three point basket against the Phoenix Suns during final minute of second half at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Suns 107-104. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

Context Is Key

Looking at Nowitzki’s raw numbers paints a somewhat dreary outlook for the sweet-shooting German. Examining where he stands among other 36-year-olds all-time as well as his per 36 minute stats places his season in a clearer context.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, Dirk Nowitzki has the 11th-best PER (19.3) all-time among 36-year-olds that also qualified for the minutes per game leaderboard. Every single player he is trailing are either Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers such as, Karl Malone (27.1), Tim Duncan (24.4) and Hakeem Olajuwon (23.1).

He is also ninth in scoring and sixth in 3-pointers made among those same players.

He may not be the Mavs go-to player as much anymore, but even as a 36-year-old he can still be a big part of putting a team away as the video below illustrates.

Nowitzki has an impact on the offense even when he isn’t the one taking and making the shot. Late in the game against the Trail Blazers, even on the plays he didn’t score in crunch time, the threat of his pick-and-pop game after setting the screen helped open up the floor for the other Mavs players.

Per 36 Minutes

Considering that Nowitzki is playing the fewest minutes per game in his career—aside from his rookie year—his stats per 36 minutes help shed light on just how much he has dropped off. Rankings from one to 17 are included with the numbers.

Season	Age	G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PTS
2014-15 ★	36	76	7.7 (11)	16.7 (11)	.460 (14)	1.6 (5)	4.3 (5)	.381 (10)	4.0 (14)	4.6 (15)	.881 (9)	7.2 (14)	2.3 (15)	0.6 (16)	0.5 (17)	1.3 (1)	21.0 (12)

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2015.

Dirk has dropped off in most major categories compared to his peak. He has not dropped as much as it appears on the surface though. There are actually five seasons he has scored less prolifically than his current rate as opposed to only two when looking at his normal averages.

It is also interesting to note that he has never taken care of the ball as well as he is this season. He is averaging a career-low in turnovers per game, both with the traditional stats and per 36 minutes.

Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has obviously been playing the long game and conserving Nowitzki’s minutes over the course of the season. So far Nowitzki has played 76 games and been relatively healthy. The idea is to have him ready and able to give his best effort when the Mavs need it most, in the playoffs.

Even though Nowtizki has been worse since the All-Star break, he has actually been scoring much better during the six games he has played in April.

In 30.6 minutes per game he is averaging 19.5 points shooting 51.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from three. He is also being more aggressive with the ball as evidenced by him getting to the line much more—5.8 attempts per game compared to 3.8 on the season.

It’s only six games, but if Dallas hopes to make any noise in the playoffs and not go out as the “West’s Weak Link,” they need Nowitzki to score more than he has this season and to be deadly efficient.

The need for an efficient and aggressive Dirk Nowitzki was always present, but the need is even more pressing now because—as Zach Lowe feared—the Rondo trade hasn’t really worked out. It seems Dirk will have to be the one to step up for the Mavs come playoffs and regain some of the form that made him into an NBA MVP and Finals MVP.

Who knows, Maybe Dirk still has a few clutch performances up his sleeve to unveil in the playoffs? The great thing is we don’t have to wait long to find out.

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