Dirk Nowitzki: Is Dallas Mavericks Star Fading?
A Fading Star
This season is Dirk Nowitzki’s 17th year in the NBA. Below is his current box score along with where each number ranks among his 17 years in the league with one being the best and 17 being the worst.
| Season | Age | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 ★ | 36 | 29.7 (16) | 6.3 (16) | 13.8 (14) | .460 (14) | 1.3 (8) | 3.5 (7) | .381 (10) | 3.3 (15) | 3.8 (15) | .881 (9) | 5.9 (16) | 1.9 (16) | 0.5 (17) | 0.4 (17) | 1.1 (1) | 17.3 (15) |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2015.
All of those numbers that are 16 would be 17 if not for Nowitzki’s rookie season. The only time besides his rookie year in which Nowitzki scored fewer points than he is right now is the year he had knee surgery. He is actually averaging the same number of points as that year (17.3), but because he has played in more games this year—76 so far compared to 53—it is ranked higher due to more total points.
What is even more concerning than the dip in numbers from one season to the next is the difference from the first half of the season to the second.
Pre All-Star
| G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 29.8 | 6.7 | 14.3 | .467 | 1.3 | 3.6 | .360 | 3.6 | 4.1 | .889 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 18.3 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2015.
Post All-Star
| G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 29.4 | 5.7 | 12.8 | .444 | 1.4 | 3.3 | .427 | 2.6 | 3.1 | .857 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 15.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2015.
He has dropped in every category except 3-point percentage, turnovers and blocks per game. At a point in the season which everyone wants to be playing their best, it seems Dirk is playing even worst. He will always be somewhat effective because of his shooting touch and height, but as his other skills continue to erode it will be more and more difficult for the Mavs to make it anywhere.
Nowitzki has never been a lockdown defender, but there was a time when he could grab nine or more rebounds, a block and a steal per game. He put those numbers up four times in his career. He also averaged eight or more rebounds nine times in his career.
Nowitzki’s poor rebounding numbers this year do nothing to help the Mavericks rebounding percentage, which happens to be dead last in the league according to NBA.com. His lack of rim protection or ability to force turnovers doesn’t help lift the Mavs defense out of the bottom half of the league either, they are currently 18th in defensive rating.
However, he is 36 years old and playing less than 30 minutes per game. Has he really faded all that much compared to his age and minutes per game?
Next: Context Is Key