Will The Memphis Grizzlies’ Hot Start Fizzle In The Playoffs?

The Memphis Grizzlies seem doomed to watch their auspicious start to the season fizzle away in the playoffs. The severe dearth of shooters that’s prompted the malaise that Memphis has fallen into is the same old song and dance.

Spacing is the key for an offense’s main components to operate. Surround the key cog(s) with adequate shooters, and defenses will be punished for over-helping.

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The Grizzlies have recently been demoralized by several championship-caliber teams in the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, and San Antonio Spurs, all of which have peaked at the wrong time for Memphis; however, the losing in and of itself isn’t the problem. Every team experiences rough patches throughout the grueling 82-game season.

Their average 17-point margin of defeat isn’t the crux of the problem, either. It’s about the process. Memphis’ shooting problem has plagued them since the rise of the grit and grind era, and it’s been the demise of the Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph-led Grizzlies.

Memphis simply does not have enough three-point shooters on its team to give its beasts down low adequate room to operate. Only Mike Conley (38.6 percent from three-point range), Jeff Green (37.8 percent), Courtney Lee (39.4 percent) and Vince Carter (30.5 percent) make defenders think twice about leaving them open.

Though improved, Tony Allen is still mostly a non-threat from the perimeter. Nick Calathes and Beno Udrih are in their mid-20s and hardly attempt threes to begin with. None of Memphis’ bigs can completely stretch the floor.

Per NBA.com, the Grizzlies’ field-goal attempts consist of only 18.6 percent three-pointers — which places them second to last in the league.

Even among players who are relatively dangerous spot-up shooters, they’re all off-the-bounce guys, first and foremost. Any smart defensive team would eagerly allow Conley, Green, Carter and Lee jacking 25 combined three-point attempts per game. Outside of Lee, it’s not what they’re comfortable doing.

That’s why perception is often more important than reality. Players aren’t looking at percentages when they’re out on the floor. A player is either a shooter or he isn’t—threat has a greater impact than efficiency.

Conley might be 38 percent from three-point range, but he isn’t a “shooter,” per se. He’s an ultra-quick ball-handler who thrives on getting in deep off dribble penetration.

When a defender is guarding an opponent, he’s trying to take away his man’s strengths. Here’s what that defender thinks: do I live with Conley banging in a few threes, or do I risk playing him too aggressively and giving up multiple layups/putting my bigs in a compromising and foul-prone position?

What’s left for Memphis then is an offense hampered by its own personnel.

Geoff Calkins of The Commercial Appeal summed up these shooting woes quite simply in a recent article lede:

“Drew Gooden is 33,” Calkins wrote. “He is the definition of a journeyman. He has played for 10 NBA teams. But on one of the biggest nights of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies, as the franchise tried to hang on to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, Gooden had more three-point baskets than the entire Memphis team.”

Randolph’s dominance on the block and Gasol’s nuance as a playmaker from both the high and low post ease some of the spacing difficulty, but it’s only enough to spike up Memphis’ offensive rating to 103.2—tied for a middling 13th in the league, according to NBA.com.

This puts head coach Dave Joerger in a tough spot with his lineup decisions. Memphis’ best offensive lineups (minimum 60 minutes played) all involve at least two of the previously mentioned shooting foursome. Their best defensive lineups, meanwhile, mostly feature one or zero shooters.

On a nightly basis, Joerger can get away with leaning on one side of the ball to counter the opponent’s strength. If Memphis faces a high-powered offense with a particularly potent wing player, he might slot Allen into a few more lineups. Assuming there aren’t any wing threats out there, Lee likely steals a few more minutes.

Either way, Joerger’s offense always regresses when he dips into the bench because three of his shooters are first-unit guys. Carter is the only real offensive threat who can go to among the second group, but he’s a shell of his former self and has morphed primarily into a spot-up shooter.

The starters, therefore, have to carry the load—Memphis’ offensive rating is at its worst when its starters sit, according to NBA.com.

It will certainly help that the pace of play generally slows in the playoffs. Half-court basketball clearly favors the Grizzlies because it allows them to lock down on defense and wear down opponents by constantly dumping the ball down low to their bruising bigs.

Their 94.26 possessions per game ranks fifth-last in the league and is indicative of the slow tempo the Grizzlies prefer.

There’s also the fact that Memphis’ defense is dominant enough to mask most of its offensive issues—it’s just that everything in the postseason becomes magnified. Multiple rounds of battle with the same opponent coupled with more time between games means more intense scouting. More scouting means weaknesses become more easily spotted and exploited. Any glaring disadvantage that the Grizzlies may have will be hammered upon by their opponent.

Shooting is that elephant in the room for Memphis.

In any one regular-season game, the Grizzlies can get hot from the outside and punish defenses for sliding off their perimeter players. Over the course of a seven-game series, however, a pack-the-paint mentality is much more likely to neutralize the inside threats Memphis does have while the perimeter scorers struggle to shoot consistently from deep.

Some nights, the opponent simply has it going from the outside. James Harden, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and Chris Paul are all lurking in the playoff picture. Any of them can get hot for a few games.

But year after year, Memphis has fallen short due to an inability to score.

Even if they can’t make shots with consistency, the Grizzlies will need to at least fire some from the perimeter to keep opponents honest. If not, Randolph and Gasol will face constant pressure and have a tough time generating points.

And without Randolph and Gasol firing on all cylinders, the Grizzlies are doomed.

Though they might be a better team this year than they were in the past, they’re ultimately facing the same uphill battle on offense.

Next: NBA: Who's Going To Win The No. 2 Seed In The West?

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