Can Everything Click Into Place For Dirk Nowitzki?

The recent retirement of Steve Nash, and the sad way in which his career teetered out, has put the state of the NBA in sharp focus for a lot of people. A generation of players that we’ve watched dominate and build Hall of Fame cases are coming to a close.

We’ve got to savor every moment we get to see of players like Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, and of course, the Dallas Mavericks‘ very own Dirk Nowitzki.

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In Dirk’s case, he’s now 36 years old and in his 17th season in the NBA. That’s a long, long time of playing professional sports at this level and intensity, and as great as Dirk still is, the effects of that have to be starting to take their toll.

The great ones have a knack for bringing it all together when it matters most though, and as the playoffs are almost upon us, is that exactly what we’re going to see from Nowitzki?

In a piece for ESPN, Tim McMahon spoke of how Nowitzki’s shooting has picked up in his last five games, and after a big three-pointer in Wednesday’s win over the Phoenix Suns, Dirk commented:

“It’s a good time to feel good about my shot, and I’ll keep stepping into them.”

The interesting thing about Dirk’s shooting this year is, it’s not like it has been bad, it’s just been inconsistent in every possible way.

For his career, Nowitzki averages 47.6 percent from the field and 38.3 percent on three-pointers. This year he falls below that, but only just, averaging 46 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from deep.

It’s the fluctuations that make his shooting season really fascinating though. If we look at his splits from before and after the All-Star break, his field goal percentage has dropped 2.5 percent to 44.2 since that showcase weekend, yet his three-point percentage has jumped up 6.3 percent to 42.3.

That’s not an isolated example, either. If we take his shooting month by month, there are significant fluctuations, particularly in his three-point percentage.

From October to April, Nowitzki’s three-point percentage has tracked as follows: 40, 37, 27.8, 40.7, 28.6, 52.2, and as of now, 33.3.

There’s another interesting wrinkle to be found in Dirk’s numbers, too. As the veteran that he has now become, he seems to be exceptionally more comfortable at home than he is on the road.

In the American Airlines Center, Nowitzki averages 49.9 percent from the field, and 45.5 percent from long range, while away from Dallas, those numbers fall to 41.7 and 31.7 percent respectively.

You might think you’ve spotted the pattern now: older guy, more comfortable at home, must be dropping off slightly due to fatigue.

If you think that, you don’t know Dirk Nowitzki though. This says more about Nowitzki’s character than anything else, but Dirk’s averages are really quite impressive playing with little rest.

Take the often talked-about, much-dreaded back-to-backs. The German has played in games on zero days rest on 12 occasions this season, and averages 44.5 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from deep in such occasions.

Nowitzki has turned it on and off like a tap throughout this season, but all of the talent is still there. Now all that the Mavs need is for Dirk to leave the water running on hot for the next few weeks, and they’ll have yet another moment to savor.

Next: Amar'e Stoudemire: Deadeye Dallas Veteran

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