Toronto Raptors: Fear The Deer In Round One?

By Joshua Howe | Apr 10, 2015

Jan 19, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) during the game against the Toronto Raptors at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Toronto won 92-89. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

The Toronto Raptors have climbed back into the third seed in the Eastern Conference. They are in a tug of war battle with the Chicago Bulls as to who will actually lock up the spot for good. It would seem to be Toronto’s to lose, since they have a slightly better schedule than the Bulls do to end the season. But anything can happen.

With that said, if the Raps do manage to retain the third seed, they’ll likely be playing the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, a team that no one is really talking about despite their surprise appearance in the playoff race sans Jabari Parker.

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If Toronto doesn’t pick things up, they may be liable to lose in the first round. It’s naive to act like that’s an impossibility; and if the Raps do fall in the first round, then their entire season should and would be considered a failure.

On paper, the Bucks are a threatening team even without Parker in the lineup. They’ve got Michael Carter-Williams at the point, the veteran Jared Dudley, O.J. Mayo, former Raptor Jerryd Bayless and the Greek Freak himself, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

One thing’s for sure. If we do get this series, we’ll need Giannis and Bruno Caboclo to take a selfie of their arm length together.

Milwaukee is still a young team, but they are being led well by second-year coach Jason Kidd. He’s helped them find an identity and now he’s even got the guy he wanted (Carter-Williams) to run the squad.

Unfortunately for him, his desired player may the squad’s downfall in a series with Toronto. MCW can’t shoot to save his life. Since his arrival in Milwaukee, he’s been playing a little better, but not much.

He’s averaging 13.6 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting from the field and an abysmal 16.0 percent shooting from three-point-land as a member of the Bucks. He’s even dropped in both the rebounds and assists categories. He’s still turnover prone too, coughing up the rock 3.5 times a game.

Out of all players in NBA history to have ever taken at least 150 threes in a season while shooting 24.0 percent or worse (that’s what MCW is averaging for the season), there are only five other guys to have been more putrid.

They are Allen Leavell, Jamaal Tinsley, Mike Evans, Tony Wroten (last season) and Charles Barkley.

Yeah, you didn’t read that wrong. Barkley shot 21.6 percent from deep in 1988-89, and jacked up 162 attempts. Bet you didn’t see that one coming. As Bill Simmons mentioned on one of his podcasts, it’s no wonder Barkley is anti-analytics!

While Kyle Lowry may not be playing the greatest ball of his career the last couple months, he’s still a much better player than Carter-Williams. The only danger to him will be MCW’s length on defense, which could pose some issues.

Still, if playoff Lowry shows up, I don’t see how MCW wins that matchup.

Switching gears from greatest downfall to greatest hope, the Bucks’ chances may rely on the progression of Giannis and how he’ll react to entering the playoffs for the first time in his young career. He’s only in his second year, though he feels like he’s been around for a while now.

The Greek Freak can do a little bit of everything. He averages 12.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.1 blocks per game on 49.7 percent shooting for the season while logging just 31.4 minutes a night.

Giannis can lock down almost any player on the Raptors with his length and could pose a threat to DeMar DeRozan. He’s quick too and runs the floor well. If he comes into his own in the playoffs, the Raptors could be in real trouble. He won’t be easy to stop on the offensive end. He doesn’t have any really skillful moves, but his athleticism combined with his length allows him to just shoot and jump over opponents.

Milwaukee also has some nice depth to bolster their starting lineup. While Toronto is known for their depth, the Bucks showcase an almost startling lineup. They have the likes of Dudley, Bayless, Mayo, Miles Plumlee, John Henson, Damien Inglis and Tyler Ennis coming off of the pine.

There are much worse benches in the East and even in the league than that (sorry, Los Angeles Clippers).

The other starters, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton (who did this) and Zaza Pachulia are also competent players. They’ve been around the block once or twice and are solid additions to surround Antetokounmpo with. If Parker was active, this roster would be flat out terrifying in the first round.

So should the Raptors want the Bucks over the Wizards in the first round?

My ruling: No. Probably not.

It’s true that the Washington Wizards haven’t been playing well for a while too, but they’ve been missing a key cog in Bradley Beal. Once he gets back into the flow, they should return to their semi-dangerous ways.

Even so, I’m not sure the Wiz have the firepower that the Bucks have. They certainly don’t have the same amount of youth save for Wall and Beal. They’ve been shaky in lots of different ways and Randy Wittman is a poor coach.

And while Washington does have Paul Pierce, who still makes me cringe, the thought of Giannis surrounded by solid players, a strong bench and a good coach worries me a lot more.

These Bucks don’t have much experience in the playoffs as a team, but in the first round that’s usually not that big of an obstacle. Teams rarely lose in the first round purely due to their level of experience. Besides, Kidd has been there and guys like Dudley and Zaza are vets that know a thing or two.

Toronto is also 3-0 against Washington this season and 2-1 against Milwaukee. For whatever that’s worth.

If I’m the Raptors, I fear the deer. Accidentally ending up in that fourth spot might not be such a bad thing after all.

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