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Milwaukee Bucks: 3 Keys To Winning A Playoff Series

By Peter Myhrer

Apr 8, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jared Dudley (9) congratulates teammates during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 8, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jared Dudley (9) congratulates teammates during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /
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Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 4, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) holds the ball on his head after being called for a foul against Boston Celtics by referee Tom Washington (49) in the second quarter at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

1. The Toronto Raptors Or Chicago Bulls?

Milwaukee’s magic number remained stagnant at two after a loss on Wednesday to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but their two-game lead over the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics with four to go means they will likely end up with the sixth seed.

Here’s a look at the current, potential playoff match ups according to Tom Haberstroh.

It’s still relatively wide open across the board, but the Bucks have the best odds (60.6 percent) of facing off against the Raptors in a first round series. The next closest is the Bulls at 33.6 percent.

Which team would the Bucks stand a better chance against between the Raptors and Bulls is an easy question. It’s the Raptors for a number of reasons.

To start with, the Bucks give up a lot of open threes. Coach Jason Kidd‘s defense is designed to live and die on the opponent’s ball movement. It’s very successful when the other team lacks proper ball movement, but it struggles against teams that pass more, dribble less, and make the extra pass.

Teams that practice quality ball movement like the Cavs and Golden State Warriors are rewarded with open looks from three. Whether the team can knock down their open looks is often the most important factor in whether the Bucks win or lose that night.

The Raptors shoot a large volume of threes (25 per game), but don’t shoot the greatest percentage. Point guard Kyle Lowry and shooting guard Lou Williams for instance average 5.5 and 5.6 attempts per game respectively, but both only shoot 33 percent. It’s enough to keep a defender from sagging off, but not enough to kill the Bucks’ defense.

If Toronto has a poor shooting game or two, the Bucks could find themselves up early in the series.

Another major factor that favors Milwaukee is where the scoring comes from on the Raptors. Five of the team’s top six scorers are backcourt or wing players (SG Demar Derozan, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Lou Williams, SF Terrence Ross and PG Grevis Vasquez).

The only exception is center Jonas Valancunias who has put up double-doubles in each of the teams’ three matchups. He will be the series’ X-factor.

If the Bucks can get lucky with a few poor shooting nights from the Raptors’ guards and limit the damage that Valancunias does, they could have a very real chance of taking the series.

Next: Protecting Homecourt

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