Despite strong efforts from LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, the 2014-15 NBA MVP race is down to just Stephen Curry and James Harden with just under a week remaining in the season.
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Curry and Harden are both outstanding candidates and the voters will have made a fine choice regardless of who among the two ultimately comes away with the hardware.
However, as close as the race is, Curry is still a few feet ahead.
Curry is in the unquestioned best player on one of the greatest regular season teams in NBA history. The Golden State Warriors are 63-15 and a whopping 10 games ahead of the teams tied for second place in the Western Conference (the Memphis Grizzlies and Harden’s Houston Rockets).
The Warriors possess a remarkable point-differential of plus-10.2 per game and hold the NBA’s most efficient defense and its third most-efficient offense. Team performance matters greatly when it comes to MVP races and Curry’s Warriors are an absolute juggernaut.
Of great importance: Curry is the biggest reason why.
He’s averaging 23.6 points (48.2 percent shooting from the field, 43.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc), 7.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds and two steals per game. He possesses a league-best .284 win shares per 48 minutes and a 7.4 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), according to Basketball Reference.
Furthermore, Curry has an offensive rating of 113.5 and a defensive rating of 97.1, giving him an absurd net rating of plus-16.4. With an offensive rating of 107.3 and a defensive rating of 101.7, Harden’s net rating (plus-5.6) isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Curry’s.
Along those lines, one of the biggest pro-Harden arguments is centered around the idea that the Rockets would be, say, a 30-win team without Harden while the Warriors, with all their talent, would still be a very good team without Curry.
Blue Man Hoop
Well, half of that is true. The Rockets post a net rating of minus-3.5 with Harden off the court this season, representing a 9.1 net rating drop off compared to when he’s on the court. A season-long net rating of minus-3.5 would rank 22nd in the NBA this season, so, yes, the Rockets would not be a playoff team without Harden.
But the Warriors wouldn’t exactly be a contender either without Curry. The Warriors post a pedestrian net rating of plus-1.2 when Curry’s sitting on the bench, a ridiculous 15.2 net rating drop off compared to when he’s on the court.
Yes, that is correct: the Warriors are 15.2 points worse per 100 possessions when Curry’s not out there compared to when he is.
Golden State would still be a playoff team without Curry, but they’d be a fringe one at best (a plus-1.2 net rating would rank 12th this season), rather than the Western Conference favorite that they are now.
Also, the Warriors are better on both sides of the ball when Curry’s on the floor. He improves the Warriors’ offensive net rating by 12.9 and their defensive net rating by 2.3 when on the court. For as much as Harden has bettered his performance on the defensive end, the Rockets are 4.6 points better per 100 possessions when he’s out of the game.
In summation, the Warriors would be much more affected by losing Curry than the Rockets would be by losing Harden (15.2 net rating drop off for Curry compared to 9.1 net rating drop off for Harden) and they would transform from being one of the greatest regular season teams ever with Curry to an easy first-round playoff knockout without him.
That’s a pretty strong testament to Curry’s value.
Harden is having an incredible season. He’s the sole reason his team is a postseason contender, very likely to win the league’s scoring championship and playing the best basketball of his career.
But this is Curry’s year. He’s the most valuable player in the league on the sport’s best team.
Both guys are deserving of the honor, but Curry’s the one that should ultimately take home the hardware.
All stats from NBA.com unless stated otherwise.
Next: 50 Greatest NBA Players Without a Championship
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