With five games left in the regular season, the Boston Celtics are in eighth place. When you look on this roster, it is a testament to the brilliant coaching of Brad Stevens and the never-say-die attitude of these players.
For when you look at this roster, you can see a huge amount of holes. Isaiah Thomas is Boston’s only reliable isolation scorer. They do not have a good center. And then there have been the injuries to players like Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk.
More from Boston Celtics
- Why the new and improved Celtics are a major threat
- These two Celtics will be crucial to unlocking Kristaps Porzingis’ potential
- The new-look Celtics are closer than ever to an 18th title
- 3 Reasons Boston will regret trading Marcus Smart
- Ranking the 5 best available power forwards in 2023 NBA free agency
But Boston’s biggest problem may be their lack of shooting. The NBA is a league where the three-point shot has become more important than ever. But Boston is the fourth-worst three-point shooting team in the NBA at just 32.5 percent. The three teams below Boston? Philadelphia, Denver, and Charlotte.
Even that number understates Boston’s lack of shooting. One of Boston’s best shooters this season? Marcus Thornton, who shot more than 3 threes a game at 42 percent with the Celtics, but is now with the Phoenix Suns. The best shooters on this roster are either Jonas Jerebko at 39 percent (but fairly low volume) or Avery Bradley at 35 percent.
Thirty-five percent is respectable, but not spectacular for a three-point shooter. For the best three-point shooter on your team? That is a problem.
This problem has cost the Celtics precious games in their chase for the playoffs. In a crucial game last week against the Bucks, Milwaukee “outshot the Celtics” 36-23 in the third quarter, according to Hardwood Houdini. Then there was the game against Miami on March 25. Even though the Heat did not have Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Hassan Whiteside, they still won thanks to 26 percent three-point shooting from the Celtics.
Now, here is the good news. An NBA team can partially compensate for poor accuracy with volume. For example, the Houston Rockets are known as the team which focuses on the “Moreyball” style of threes and free throws at the expense of everything else. But Houston is only 15th when it comes to their three-point percentage. They compensate for this by shooting far more three-pointers than any other team.
The Celtics may be one of the worst at shooting threes, but they are 12th in terms of three-point field goals attempted. Since a three-point shot is worth 50 percent more than a two-pointer, the Celtics could compensate by having Bradley and Isaiah Thomas take more three-pointers.
However, even that approach will have problems against Cleveland or Atlanta. Cleveland attempts the second-most three-pointers after Houston, and nearly everyone on that team can shoot. Atlanta attempts the sixth-most and has one of the deadliest marksman in the league in Kyle Korver.
Boston cannot hope to compete with either Atlanta or Cleveland in accuracy. But if they are going to have any hope of defeating them in the playoffs, they should look to shoot even more three-pointers than they already do.
The three-point shot is a shot with high variance and such a strategy could backfire on the Celtics. But they will lose anyways if they play in a conventional manner. Consequently, they need to aim for high variance and hope it works in their favor.
Hardwood Houdini
Of course, the Celtics are not just looking at this season, but next season as well. There, Boston will have plenty of cap room and the opportunity to go after some good three-point shooters. Jackie MacMullan discussed a few weeks ago how Khris Middleton is a likely Celtics target this summer.
Middleton is shooting better than 40 percent on 3.4 attempts per game and has helped rejuvenate a Milwaukee team which was supposed to be at the bottom of the barrel this year. He may not be as flashy as some other free agents this summer. But his ability to shoot the three would be a huge asset to this Boston squad.
There are those like Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe who wonder whether the NBA may attempt to limit the growing influence of the three-point shot in the future. But until such a thing happens, the three-pointer is one of the most important parts of modern basketball. The Celtics have not done enough to exploit it over this season.
They need to do so in the playoffs, and they will need to look into how they will address this problem over the offseason.
That, and so many other issues. Danny Ainge will have his work cut out for him.
Next: The 30 Best Power Forwards of All-Time
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout