Milwaukee Bucks: What's Wrong with Khris Middleton?

A lot of factors have contributed to the Milwaukee Bucks’ 8-16 record since the All-Star break. There’s been a multitude of injuries that have decimated the highest producing bench in the league, the schedule has featured 12 games against current playoff teams, and then there’s the factor that gets pointed to the most, the Brandon Knight trade.

Everyone has been offering up their own personal diagnosis of what’s wrong with the Bucks right now, but I’m more concerned with a question that effects the team right now and more importantly in the future.

What’s wrong with Khris Middleton?

The 6’8″ shooting guard has become a fan favorite for his efficient scoring, stellar defense, and late game heroics.

Middleton has directly won two games for the Bucks this year on last-second shots, but his play has contributed to many more. Advanced metrics credit him with adding a roster leading 5.9 wins to the team this season, more than Brandon Knight (4.3 wins) and Michael Carter-Williams combined (0.3 wins).

For as talented of a shooter as he is though, he has contributed more to wins with his defense than his offense. Basketball-Reference.com credits him with 3.1 defensive win shares and 2.8 offensive win shares this year.

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As the stats suggest, Khris Middleton is a great one-on-one defender. The league average for an opponent’s field goal percentage against any given defender is 44.3 percent. Opponents only shoot 38.9 percent when guarded by Middleton.

This is important to keep in mind when he goes through rough shooting stretches like the one he is in currently. Even when his shot isn’t falling, his defense still makes him a net positive player.

So to partially answer my previous question, there’s nothing wrong defensively with Khris Middleton. That’s the great part about defense. It’s much easier to be a consistent defender than a consistent scorer.

However, there is something wrong with Middleton’s offense and it’s not something that more effort can solve. He is shooting just 36.5 percent from the field in his last seven games and an astonishing 13 percent (3-for-23) on threes in his last five games.

Khris Middleton’s 2014-15 Shot Chart /

As you can see from the his shot chart, these numbers are well below average for him, particularly the mark from behind the arc. Even with this recent poor stretch however, he is still shooting 45.7 percent overall this season and 40.2 percent from deep.

This isn’t the first time he’s gone a long stretch without shooting well either.

Middleton began the year by only shooting 39.6 percent in the month of November. His shooting percentage for each month then gradually improved until it peaked when he shot 53.8 percent in January.

It’s not like he didn’t use to have off nights. They were just less noticeable early on in the season when he was shooting fewer times per game.

The trade of Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns left a lot of shots per game unclaimed. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the main beneficiaries of this as their shot attempts per game increased.

Specifically, Middleton went from shooting 9.2 shots per game before the All-Star break to 14.6 shots per game after.

Initially, he thrived in his new role. After averaging only 12.9 points per game in January, he averaged 16.5 in February, and 17.7 in March. He even scored 77 total points during a three-game stretch of March.

His high number of shots per game have allowed him to still contribute offensively still, although be it not as efficiently as his reputation leads you to expect. Even with his late March and early April struggles, Middleton has scored in double figures each of the last 10 games.

That’s not the silver lining to take away from his recent play though. The silver lining is that despite the frustration that missing a lot of shots brings, Middleton has continued to take those shots.

That shows me that he will be fine because he still has confidence in his shot. With that confidence, it’s only a matter of time before he gets hot again.

The Heat game on Mar. 24 is a perfect example of this. Middleton entered the final few seconds of the game shooting just 4-of-16 from the field. What happened next can only be explained by confidence and it’s the reason the Bucks went home with a win.

So when free agent negotiations begin on Jul. 1, don’t let a recent stretch of poor shooting nights influence your opinion on what Khris Middleton is worth to the Bucks. At his best, he’s an efficient scoring wing with defense for days. At his worst, he’s a strong defender with ice in his veins during crunch time.

If you can’t handle Khris Middleton at his worst, you don’t deserve him at his best. Fortunately for Bucks fans, his worst is still pretty darn good.

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Milwaukee Bucks: What’s Wrong With Khris Middleton?

By Peter Myhrer | Apr 6, 2015

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