Indiana Pacers: Will Paul George’s Return Get Pacers in the Playoffs?
By Shane Young
August 1, 2014 was a day Indianapolis natives will never forget. Once Paul George fractured his right leg during a Team USA scrimmage, the entire 2014-15 season looked to be a wasted year for the Indiana Pacers.
LeBron had diversified the Eastern Conference by heading home to Cleveland, Al Horford was returning for Atlanta, Derrick Rose was feeling healthy, and the Wizards felt they bolstered their roster for a deeper run. The East was up in the air, and this was time for Indiana’s continuity to carry them past the Conference Finals.
However, the leg injury was projected to sideline George for the entire season, so he could have summer 2014 to heal, then winter, spring, and summer of 2015 to get back into the best condition possible. He was completely aware that rushing a major injury on the most important part of a player’s body (lower limbs) could only set himself up for another disastrous situation.
Up until February, the thought of George returning to the lineup seemed unfathomable.
As January concluded, the Pacers were 17-31 (14 games under .500) and were not even considered in the running for the eighth and final playoff seed. From the end of October to the end of January (three-month span), Indiana’s offensive rating was just 98.1, which was the third-worst in the league. Only the deplorable Hornets and 76ers offense was worse through the first 48 games. Frank Vogel still led them to a top-11 defensive rating during that time, though, which helped their net rating (-3.0) appear much more acceptable than other lottery teams.
Then, a firework must have went off inside every player’s head.
The team resembled their highest energy and proficiency through February, even with the All-Star break splitting up their success. From Feb. 1 to Mar. 1, Indiana collected the sixth-highest offensive rating by averaging 105.8 points per 100 possessions. Also having the seventh-best defense during that month, they created the perfect balance you would aim for … especially in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers ranked fourth in net rating (+6.5) during that 10-game sample, which was higher than 13 other East squads. Cleveland’s surprising net rating of +8.1 was the only figure higher in the East during February, and nobody saw it coming after the woeful defense the Cavaliers illustrated to begin the year.
Before the major uptick, the reasoning for George to sit the whole season was understandable; already in a huge hole in the standings, why would he choose to risk another injury during a season that has no relevant playoff hopes?
Well, some feelings often change dramatically. Instead of going backwards and tanking for a higher draft pick, the Pacers turned the ship around. Vogel winning Eastern Conference Coach of the Month for February altered the team’s sentiments. While the end-goal was once out of reach, the rest of the East never entered the driver’s seat. Every other team from spots 7-12 showed lamentable efforts, and the Pacers kept crawling closer. George now had a reason to make his debut.
Most of the augmentation was attributed to Rodney Stuckey. In his eighth year as a pro, Stuckey ignited the bench during the Pacers’ 8-2 run. He utilized his improved 3-point shooting and aggressive rim-attacking to properly “replace” Lance Stephenson. This year is the most comfortable Stuckey has felt with his long-range shot, and it shows from his 39.5 percent efficiency from the perimeter — 7.8 percent greater than his next best season. If you had told Stuckey at media day that he’d take over 120 triples this year and rank in the top 25 of 3-point percentage, even he wouldn’t be confident in that goal.
As March rolled around, George was indecisive about his return. He initially marked the calendar for March 14, a home meeting with Boston. Even as he became cleared by team doctors that week, he still didn’t feel comfortable enough to return that quickly.
Since George’s ideal date of March 14, Indiana has went 3-9 in 12 games, which was actually considered a “favorable” part of the schedule. Four of those nine losses were against those “special five” in the hunt for a final East seed. Once Indiana cruised past Golden State and Cleveland to conclude February, nobody forecasted a March storm wiping out the team. It got ugly, in a hurry.
Now, the Pacers’ inability to close the race with a consistent winning streak has influenced George to hit the floor. He only has three home games left to debut, and six games to get real competition under his legs.
While the convenient timing makes it seem as if George was “pushed” back into action by Larry Bird and the rest of management, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Everyone within the organization certainly cares about reaching the playoffs this year, but they understand it’s not the most significant factor in this situation. What eclipses the playoff desire is the well-being of their players, and the next four years of George’s contract. Bird may not exercise the greatest patience in basketball, but he’s smart enough to not risk a guy’s long-term health by rushing him back.
As George is under contract for the next four seasons — totaling nearly $75 million — it’s mindless to think the franchise would jeopardize his future just to reach one pointless postseason. Based on how formidable Atlanta and Cleveland (top two seeds) have been, an early ousting of any opponent they match up against seems realistic. These Pacers are fighting for one of those final, hapless playoff spots.
Instead, this was George’s personal decision. He’ll never admit that being 1.5 games back from the playoffs played a role in his choice, but any top-notch competitor would want to bump his team into the big dance. It’s natural for any athlete to have that fire and motivation, and we’d be pretty disappointed if they didn’t possess it.
It was crucial for Indiana’s ace, who recorded a PER of 20.16 last season, to get five or six games on his body before the offseason. If the playoffs are reached, that’s at least 10 games he’ll have to get a feel for the game. From George’s remarks in the past about his childhood idol, Kobe Bryant, there’s a good chance the two have discussed the returning process.
Bryant tore his Achilles’ tendon in 2013 and was out for eight months, and he practiced with the Lakers for a full month before debuting in a game. George is now in the same boat, rehabbing his leg for eight months, and having a full month of practice with his team. It’s crazy how similar it’s been, even with two completely different injuries. One piece of advice Bryant could definitely relay to George is the difference in speed and intensity from team practices to action regular season games. When Bryant returned to the Lakers in December 2013, his timing was completely off compared to opponents’, he wasn’t fully in game-shape, and a lot of turnovers accompanied his game. It’s safe to say, the Pacers should expect George to battle with common transitions from practice form to game form.
Entering the playoffs will be an uphill battle over the last 13 days of the season. With April 15 being the last day of the regular season, George has six games to contribute all he can. That is, if Vogel lets him play all six. There isn’t a set minutes restriction on George over the next two weeks, but Vogel’s plan is likely to keep it moderate. 15-20 minutes — unless George persuades his coach otherwise — is all the production Indiana will be able to squeeze out of George.
The final stretch of the season is fairly moderate, with the Pacers facing a combined opponent record of 216-243 (.471). That includes two West teams to end the year (Thunder, Grizzlies) and three guaranteed playoff opponents. If you count Miami as a playoff team, since they’re in the East hunt, that’s four games Indiana can consider “tough.”
When you examine the other four franchises battling for a final berth, the Pacers have the easiest remaining schedule. Charlotte faces the toughest schedule of the group, with a combined opponent record of 263-196 (.573). The Nets are close behind, facing 259-200 (.564), followed by the Celtics at 211-172 (.551), and Miami at 232-226 (.507).
Vogel has the easiest draw out of all the teams chasing, so the rest of the fight will be about two things. Can the team finally stay in one piece, after a boatload of injuries this season, and how well can George Hill and Paul George play together?
Hill has taken over the leadership of this team while his teammate has rehabbed, and it couldn’t have been prettier. Per 36 minutes, Hill is averaging 20.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 5 rebounds in his much-improved year, after taking the whole summer to basically live in the gym. From the field, he’s shooting 47.6 percent, the best he’s shot since his second year with the Spurs. He worked harder than anyone on the roster during the summer, which is exactly what Vogel raved about on media day. He wasn’t exaggerating.
Hill’s per-36 production is quite similar to Kyrie Irving, who receives all the credit for being an East superstar. Irving averages 21.4 points, 5 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, while shooting 46.7 percent from the field.
Then, glance at Kyle Lowry, who also was declared an All-Star member for the East. Lowry averages 18.7 points, 7.2 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per 36 minutes, while shooting 41.6 percent on the year. Hill’s efficiency is better than both Lowry and Irving, he’s still a reliable 3-point threat like the two, and he’s been just as prolific as a scoring guard. Yet, none of it will be properly judged because the Pacers are stuck in the lottery.
When Paul George steps on the floor Sunday night, the whole team will be revitalized. Whether he personally plays well or not, that’s not the overall point. It’s the next step in George jumping the mental hurdles. He can’t sit on the bench forever.
His presence on the floor alone could be enough to spark some urgency within this group. That’s all they’ve needed for the last few years. There’s more than enough time to reach the postseason cutoff. You should bet in their favor.