The Cleveland Cavaliers don’t even have the best record in their conference — the Atlanta Hawks have a whopping eight-game lead on them — yet, LeBron James’ Cavs are the odds-on favorite to win the 2015 NBA championship. Online sportsbook Bovada has Cleveland at 2/1 odds to win it all.
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However, while Las Vegas is often right about these things, they’ve gotten it wrong on this one. The Golden State Warriors absolutely deserve to be the championship favorite over the Cavs.
First, we have to admit: it’s easy to understand why the Cavaliers have such great odds.
Cleveland has the world’s best player in a league in which the team with the best player often wins it all.
Also, after struggling early in the season, the Cavaliers have emerged into the elite team many of us thought they would be. Since LeBron returned from a two-week layoff in January, Cleveland has won an impressive 29 of 37 games.
But the Cavs haven’t just beaten opponents often throughout the past few months, they’ve regularly blown them out. Since Jan. 13, the Cavaliers have a point-differential of plus-9.9 per game and have an offensive rating of 111.3 and a defensive rating of 102, giving them a net rating of plus-9.2.
That’s certainly championship-level performance from the Cavaliers since LeBron’s return. Yet, incredibly so, there’s been one team in the NBA that’s outplayed Cleveland since Jan. 13: the Warriors, of course.
Golden State has gone 32-8 during that stretch and has posted an even better point-differential of plus-10.7. They also have an offensive rating of 110 and a defensive rating of 98.6, giving them a superior net rating of plus-11.4.
That’s more than championship-level performance. That’s downright ridiculous.
But it’s not surprising. Golden State has been a force all season long, For the season, the Warriors’ offensive rating is 109.8, their defensive rating is 97.9 and their point-differential is plus-10.8 per game.
What surely helps gives Cleveland the edge over Golden State in the mind of many is that we’ve seen LeBron win at the biggest stage before. He’s been to the NBA Finals in each of the past four years and has won two NBA titles in that timeframe. There’s no individual player more frightening to face in a playoff series than James these days.
On the flip side, the Warriors don’t have that pedigree. They were knocked out in the first round last year and their greatest playoff success with their current core was a first-round series victory over the Denver Nuggets in 2013.
Furthering the Cavs’ cause: they play in a significantly weaker conference. While there’s arguably only two teams (the Hawks and Cavs) that are real threats to make the finals in the East, the Western Conference is loaded.
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Yet, the Warriors should still be considered the overall championship favorite. Although they don’t have the experience, they’re the most talented team in the league from top-to-bottom and that clearly has more value.
And, yes, the West is brutal; however, it hasn’t hindered’s Golden State ability to rack up wins all year long. The Warriors are a stunning 36-8 in conference. The Memphis Grizzlies, the team with the second best conference record in the West, have 15 conference losses.
This Warriors team is special. They have the second-most efficient offense in the league and the most-efficient defense. They can do it all, ranking top-six in each of the following categories: field goal percentage (No. 1), three-point shooting percentage (No. 1), rebounds (no. 6), assists (No. 1), steals (No. 3), blocks (No. 2) and points (No. 1), according to Basketball Reference.
It’s hard to find any holes on this team. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson make up the most devastating backcourt in the league. Andrew Bogut is a defensive anchor. Draymond Green in the perfect do-it-all supporting player. With talents like Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, David Lee and Shaun Livingston in the fold, this team even has excellent depth.
The Cavaliers are playing outstanding basketball and are undoubtedly a team to fear, but make no mistake: the Warriors are an absolute juggernaut and the team most likely to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in a few months.
All stats from NBA.com unless stated otherwise.
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